Racing Trends for York (Day 2)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse found two winners from four races at the York Meeting yesterday, plus a tricast and a second choice winner making it a profitable day. Today we offer more key trends for Thursday 17th May 2018 which includes the Dante and a race that has produced four Epsom Derby winners in the last 16 years (10 in total).

Today we have nominated some bigger priced horses where Nordic Lights in the Dante seems a good price at around 10/1 especially given the Appleby form. With progression forthcoming you would imagine he would run at LEAST A PLACE?

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2.20 York: Betfred 'Supports Jack Berry House' Stakes Handicap (Class 2) 5f.

10/10: Raced at York before (100%)
..9/10: Returned a double-figure price (90%)
..9/10: Came from a single-figure draw (90%)
..9/10: Failed to win last time out (90%)
..9/10: Had won at least 4 times before (90%)
..8/10: Had run in the last 5 weeks (80%)
..8/10: Winning distance 3/4 length or shorter (80%)
..8/10: Finished in the top 5 last time out (80%)
..8/10: Aged 6yo or older (80%)
..6/10: Returned between 10/1 and 16/1 (60%)
..6/10: Favourites placed (60%)
..5/10: Rated between 87-92 (50%)
..5/10: Carried 8st 10lbs or less (50%)
..2/10: Trained by Michael Easterby (20%)
..0/10: Winning favourites (0%)


Duke Of Firenze won the race in 2016 and 2017
Out Do won the race in 2015

Timeform View

It could be worth chancing CARLTON FRANKIE on her return after a breathing operation. She was struggling when last seen but has fallen to a tempting mark, and thrived at the start of last season. Next on the shortlist is Poyle Vinnie, back in good heart for his new yard and third in this last year off a 16 lb higher mark. El Astronaute and Major Jumbo are a couple of others with solid claims.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st:  LINE OF REASON 10/1  2nd: ORIENT CLASS 28/1  3rd: ROYAL BRAVE 16/1 

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2.55 York: Betfred Middleton Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) 1m2f88y 

14/14: Aged 4 or 5yo (100%)
12/14: Placed in the top 4 last time out (86%)
11/14: Won over 1m2f before (79%(
11/14: Favourites placed (79%)
10/14: Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting (71%)
..9/14: Won at least 4 times before (64%)
..9/14: Having first run of the season (64%)
..7/14: Wining favourites (including 5 of last 10) (50%)
..7/14: Raced at York before (50%)
..5/14: Winners from stall 4 (36%)
..4/14: Ran at Newmarket last time out (29%)
..3/14: Won last time out (21%)
..3/14: Won at York before (21%)
..0/14: Winners from stall 1 (0%)

Trainer Michael Easterby won the race in 2011 & 2014
Trainer David O’Meara won the race in 2018 and 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1

Timeform View

MORI may not have been suited by the easier ground when below her best on her final 2 starts last term, but is the type of performer her shrewd handler excels with and is taken to make a winning return. Coronet is feared most, despite the slight concern over the drop in trip, whilst Chain of Daisies is also respected..

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: CORONET 5/2  2nd: INDIAN BLESSING 20/1  3rd: TURRET ROCKS 8/1 

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3.30 York: Betfred Dante Stakes (Group 2) 1m2f88y

14/16: Winners went onto run in the Epsom Derby (4 won) (88%)
13/16: Finished third or better last time out (81%)
10/16: Returned 8/1 or shorter (63%)
10/16: Won previous race (63%)
10/16: Had a previous race that season (63%)
..8/16: Went onto be placed in the Epsom Derby (50%)
..4/16: Went onto win the Epsom Derby (25%)
..3/16: Winning favourites (19%)
..3/16: Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (won it 4 times in all) (19%)
..3/16: Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (won it 6 times in all) (19%)
..3/16: Won by jockey Ryan Moore (19%)
..3/16: Had won over 1m2f before (19%)
..2/16: Ridden by Frankie Dettori (13%)
..2/16: Ridden by William Buick (13%)
..2/16: Trained by John Gosden (two of last 3 runnings) (13%)
..1/16: Run at York before (6%)
..0/16: Winners from stall 2 (0%)


Just 1 winning favourite in the last 11 runnings
Golden Horn (2015) was last Dante winner to go onto win the Epsom Derby
The average winning SP in the last 11 years is 9/1

Timeform View

MILDENBERGER continued his upward curve when taking a Newmarket listed race on his reappearance last month and likely has more to offer yet, with this stiffer test sure to play to his strengths. He is fancied to score. Roaring Lion bounced back to form in the 2000 Guineas and is the obvious danger, whilst dual-course winner Wells Farhh Go is also interesting.

The Racing Horse Verdict:

1st:  NORDIC LIGHTS 9/1  2ND: CROSSED BATON 6/1  3rd: JAMES COOK 9/1

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4.05 York: Betfred TV Hambleton Stakes Handicap (Listed) 1m

13/13: Rated between 96-105 (100%)
12/13: Carried 8st 7lbs or more (92%)
12/13: Won over a mile before (92%)
11/13: Favourites placed in the top 4 (85%)
11/13: Returned 10/1 or shorter (85%)
10/13: Winning distance – 1 length or shorter (77%)
..9/13: Came from a single-figure draw (69%)
..9/13: Aged between 4-6yo (69%)
..9/13: Won at least 4 times before (69%)
..8/13: Raced in the last 6 weeks (62%)
..7/13: Placed last time out (54%)
..6/13: Aged 4yo (46%)
..3/13: Winning favourite (1 joint, 1 co) (23%)
..1/13: Won last time out (8%)


Here Comes When won the race in 2017

Timeform View

Whilst having the plum draw in stall 1 to work from at Chester last week, BARAWEEZ was still deserving of plenty of credit for making up as much ground as he did from the rear. He remains with handicapping scope on old form and could be worth siding with in his current mood. Original Choice is a thoroughly likeable type who is feared most ahead of Cape Byron.

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st:  AFAAK 15/2  2nd: LARCHMONT LAD 12/1  3rd: LOVE DREAMS 20/1

 

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

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