Trends for Haydock

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

We cannot expect to repeat last week's performance where we absolutely smashed it! From five races we found 4 first choice winners at odds of 20/1, 10/3, 20/1 plus our Pacafi which was available for long periods at 25/1, A £1 win accumulator on those four at morning prices would have returned over £36,000. Thanks for the messages of congratulations!

We now look forward to Haydock on Saturday and will post our idea of the 1-2-3 on Friday night at 6pm once we have the runners and rides and the state of the ground.

Mathematics meets common sense!

Not all our members will have access to the Racing Post but before we apply our trends we always go to the Postdata section to have a visual check on the trainer form. We will never back a horse with bad trainer form just in the faint hope he will come good on the day and never will. If our Pacafi has taught us anything it is to set aside those trainers because of the mathematics that accompany them! When the ground is extreme we will delete again those who do not have conditions to suit. Just common sense really...

Keep your eye on the Haggas!

Finally, our members will know how well William Haggas does at Haydock and anything he sends there must be looked at, no matter what! This course is his second biggest winner on turf after Yarmouth and he has scored 81 winners from 311 runners for 26% and a big level-stake profit of +69.44pts. If he has a winner at this meeting he could break the £1m prize money barrier at this course.

Other trainers at Haydock

John Gosden does well at Haydock also and is currently 122-512 for 24% and a massive level-stake profit of +107.82pts. Two trainers who flog and throw horses at the course, and to avoid like the plague, are Mark Johnston with 11-976 for 11% and Richard Fahey 97-933 for 10%..

2.50 Haydock: Betway Pinnacle Stakes (Group 3) 1m3f (Fillies and Mares)

15/15: Won over at least 1m2f before (100%)
13/15: Returned 9/1 or shorter (87%)
13/15: Finished in the top 3 last time out (87%)
12/15: Rated 92 or higher (80%)
11/15: Placed favourites (73%)
11/15: Won over 1m4f before (73%)
11/15: Aged 4yo (73%)
10/15: Came from the top 3 in the betting (67%)
..9/15: Drawn in stall 5 or lower (60%)
..5/15: Ran at Haydock before (33%)
..4/15: Won last time out (27%)
..4/15: Winning favourites (27%)
..2/15: Trained by Roger Varian (13%)
..2/15: Trained by John Gosden (13%)
..2/15: Ridden by Frankie Dettori (13%)


The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: EURO NIGHTMARE 9/1  2nd GOD GIVEN 2/1  3rd: TITI MAFKI 8/1

Timeform View

GOD GIVEN improved a lot last season, and this half-sister to the top-class Postponed looks sure to continue progressing as a 4-y-o, especially now with a run under her belt. Useful German performer Fosun is respected, while Cribbs Causeway and What A Home probably have more in the locker.

~

3.25 Haydock: Betway Achilles Stakes (Listed) 5f

9/9: Returned 14/1 or shorter (100%)
8/9: Aged 5yo or older (89%)
8/9: Raced in the last 10 weeks (89%)
8/9: Won between 6-8 times before (89%)
8/9: Failed to win last time out (89%)
8/9: Won over 5f before (89%)
7/9: Drawn between stalls 2-7 (inc) (78%)
6/9: Ran at the course before (67%)
6/9: Winning distance 1 length or less (67%)
6/9: Had finished in the top 5 last time out (67%)
5/9: Unplaced favourites (56%)
4/9: Winning favourites (44%)


Final Venture (9/4) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 13/2

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: MUTHMIR 3/1  2nd: ALPHA DELPHINI 6/1  3rd: FINAL VENTURE 8/1

Timeform View

Last year's winner FINAL VENTURE is taken to successfully defend his crown after a cracking run in a hot big-field York handicap a fortnight ago. Alpha Delphini and Judicial were both placed in the Palace House and have leading claims on that form. Muthmir is the class act but needs to step up on the figures he's posted in 2 runs this year.

~

4.00 Haydock: Betway John Of Gaunt Stakes (Group 3) 7f

14/15: Rated 107 or higher (93%)
14/15: Raced within the last 4 weeks (93%)
13/15: Drawn in stall 6 or lower (87%)
12/15: Came from the top three in the betting (80%)
12/15: Returned 9/1 or shorter (80%)
12/15: Won over 7f before (80%)
10/15: Aged 4 or 5yo (67%)
10/15: Placed in the top 3 last time out (67%)
10/15: Drawn in stall 3 or lower (67%)
..9/15: Favourites placed (60%)
..9/15: Won at least 4 times before (60%)
..5/15: Ran at the track before (33%)
..4/15: Winning favourites (1 joint) (27%)
..3/15: Ridden by Ryan Moore (20%)
..2/15: Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (13%)
..2/15: Aged 9yo (13%)


The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: TABARRAK 7/2  2nd: D'BAI 9/2  3rd: EMMAUS 5/1 

Timeform View

EMMAUS hasn't made the track often, but left the impression he could develop into a high-class miler when making a winning return at Leicester so gets the nod up in grade. Tabarrak looked every inch a Group-winner in-waiting when scoring over C&D 4 weeks ago and is next best ahead of Dutch Connection.

~

  Today's Pacafi: click here

REMEMBER!

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

~

The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *