12 Summer Jumpers

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The Racing Horse is indebted to Ben Aitken of Narrowing The Field for allowing us to use and build on his dozen jumpers to follow during the summer. We have been a fan of Ben's work for a while and like the way he works and views a race. Ben loves the National Hunt Racing and likes to back horses under their own personal prime racing conditions and we share that view as long as the trainer is in form with his horses generally. His advice is clear and concise and allows the reader to come to their own conclusions using information not readily available elsewhere, something we hope we do also!

To sample some of his fantastic work you can grab your FREE NTF GUIDE HERE

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Below is a list of six horses we are interested in with Ben's optimum conditions comments. Our intention is to look at each of those closely when they have an entry pending. We have set up a small 20pt bank and will advise stakes of 0.5pt, 1pt or 2pts depending on the race condition factors. We may bet win or each-way or with a saver. As always the advice will replicate our own personal betting. To view the details of all 12 horses please click on the link here

 

SANDYMOUNT DUKE (9yo) Mrs John Harrington


Eighth foal; brother to 2m Flat (inc Irish Cesarewitch) winner Sandymount Earl, half-brother to Cyprus 5f-7f winner Kritikia and 2m hurdle winner Jowango; dam 1m2f and 1m6f (Listed) winner.

Summer record
09111111115521 (9 from 14) (Record in May: 2210. Record in October: 234)

All 10 of his wins have come on Good or Good to Firm (0/7 on other going)
Strong form when sent off at 4/1 or less (1121311111521)
Unbeaten in July (4 from 4)

This Hernando gelding had a wonderful campaign last summer, pulling together a form string of 11152 between the end of May & August and it looks like they are prepping him for another summer campaign again this year, with the 9yo having a couple of warm-up spins in April & May. He’s higher in the weights this summer round but he finished a decent 5th in the Galway Plate last August off 1lb higher than his current mark and that could well be a feasible target again this time round.

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THEFLYINGPORTRAIT (9yo) Jennie Candlish


First foal; dam unraced sister to 2m6f-3m2f hurdle/chase winner Tastes Like More out of half-sister to fair hurdler/chaser up to 2m4f Smolensk and fair sprinter Gdansk.

Summer record
121140P11145 (6 from 12) (Record in May: 68557. Record in October: 13)

All 7 career wins on good or better ground (0/13 on Good to Soft or softer)
All 7 wins in fields of 11 or less (0/8 in fields of 12+)
All 6 wins over 2m – 2m1.5f trips (0/6 over 2m3f+)
Strong form at Kelso (113) and Perth (115)


Connections have had this front-running grey out twice in the spring, clearly with a view to getting him fit and firing for his prime months. Those two efforts will have blown away the winter cobwebs and the added bonus of those runs is that he’s been dropped 6lbs to OR 133, a mark that should definitely see him be competitive during his favoured summer months.
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DREAMSOFTHEATRE (9yo) Jonjo O'Neill


E16,000 Y, E19,000 3yo; first foal; dam unraced half-sister to 10.7f-12.5f Flat/useful 2m-2m4f hurdle and chase winner Dom Fontenail and 1m4f winner Nina Fontenail


Summer record
2221291111372 (5 from 13) (Record in May: 031445. Record in October: 0P54215)

He has strong August form (4 from 6, 2 places)
7 of his 8 wins have come on Good or quicker ground (he is 1/17 on Good to Soft or softer ground)
7 of his 8 wins have come at 3m+ (he is 1/17 over 2m7.5f or less)
All 8 of his wins have come in fields of 11 or less (he is 0/8 in fields of 12+)
Richard Johnson is 3 from 4 on him.


From a handicapping perspective this lad, like this time last year, is insanely well-handicapped, as he goes into the summer campaign from the lowly mark of OR 103, some 24lbs below his highest winning mark and 16lbs below his last winning mark. If Jonjo can in any way get him firing again he could pick off at least a couple of low grade races over the summer months. He did hint there is still something in the locker with a 5th at Huntingdon on the 22nd of May and if building on that he could reward followers at decent odds.

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PEREGRINE RUN (8yo) Peter Fahey


Fourth foal; brother to 1m6f Flat/useful 2m-2m4f hurdle winner Takeyourcapoff; dam Irish bumper winner in three starts and out of half-sister to Park Hill second Masilia, is granddaughter of French Oaks third Masmouda.

Summer record
32132111311 (6 from 11) (Record in May: 00. Record in October: 1)


Strong record on Good ground (7/12, 3 places)
Has taken well to fences (21131U)


Good record when starting at 4-1 or less (6/10)Connections sent this one chasing last June and he duly fired in a form string of 21131 over the larger obstacles before being off the track from August until the Scottish National meeting at Ayr in April. He was laboured that day and probably needed the outing and given that he has G2 & G3 victories on his CV it would be disappointing should he not prove some way better than that effort (UR in G2 Future Champions Novice Chase). There will be races to be won with him over the summer months if connections fancy it

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SONNEOFPRESENTING (8yo) Kim Bailey


E37,000 3yo; second foal; dam bumper/3m hurdle winner, half-sister to bumper/2m Flat/2m3f hurdle/chase winner Headford Flyer and 2m3f chase winner Ben Akram out of 2m1f and 2m4f bumper/2m2f hurdle winner, family of Jodami

Summer record
1214123112 (5 from 10) (Record in May: 3 Record in October: 6)


All wins over 2m4.5f – 2m7f (0/3 over 2m3.5f & shorter – 0/8 over 3m+)
Possibly best on better ground – 4 wins on Good, 1 on Good to Soft, 0 from 3 on Soft
Yet to win from OR 133+ (0/4)


The 8yo crept up the handicap after a successful summer last term but after a couple of spring runs he’s back down to a mark (OR 131) where he should be more competitive, and it would be disappointing should he not pick up a race over two over the summer months. Although not yet winning over 3 miles he would be of interest over the trip on an easy t rack such as Perth or Southwell.

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VOSNE ROMANEE (7yo) Dr Richard Newland


800gns Y resold £4,500 Y; 7th foal; half-brother to 1m1f/1m2f winner Malguru (RPR 59); dam placed 1m (67), half-sister to Italian 1m4f Listed winner Very Sweet and to Ascot Stakes winner/high-class staying hurdler Sweet Glow

Summer record
21212213131 (5 from 11) (Record in May: 271P. Record in October: N/A)


All 7 wins on Good or quicker (0/10 on slower ground)
All wins off a break of 30 days or less (0/5 off longer breaks)
All wins in fields of 11 or less (0/7 in larger fields)
Strong record at Class 3 level & below (6/15 at C3 level & below – 1/10 at C2 level+)


The 7yo returned to the track in February after spending the entire period between September & January in his stable but he never managed to get his ground in four starts and that showed in his results (4583). Saying that he did run well for a long time in a 3-runner
handicap at Perth in April but just couldn’t quicken on the rain softened ground. He’s still pretty unexposed over fences after only 7 starts and he’d be of plenty interest if kept going over the summer again. I’d also be a bit more flexible on the field size angle and consider him up to 15/16 runners if he gets his ground.

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Ben told us: "Hopefully the horses in this FREE Narrow The Field guide hit the mark this summer and you are able to make profitable use of the material included within. The aim of this guide is to pinpoint a clutch of horses that in previous seasons have excelled during the summer months and shown themselves more than capable of hitting the mark. That, of course, is no guarantee of future success for them but hard work and study does pay off and hopefully at least a handful of them will pay their way during the summer jumping months, with any luck there will be a juicy priced winner somewhere amongst the pack!"

The Racing Horse agrees with Ben's sentiments and we have put them in our tracker file and look at each and every entry from Saturday 9th June 2018. We will use our filters and give a detailed view the night before they race. Finally we will only consider the above horses when they are jumping, as we go to print we note Rashaan runs in a Flat Race at the Curragh but is not a bet.

Our first qualifiers looks to be Kylecrue and Sandymount Duke who run in different races at Punchestown on Wednesday next week, and we will post news and information on Monday evening. The intention is to make a profit and not subject ourselves to risk but we will be looking at longer priced horses than our normal type bet so we need to forget about 40% strike-rates.

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

REMEMBER!

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

 

 

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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