Royal Ascot Trends (Thursday Day 3)

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Our trends and the advice that followed them gave us another 11pts profit on Day 2 adding to the 7pts we won on Day 1 taking us to +18pts over the first two days. We hope the members followed us in. These profits have covered our two losing Pacafis but we are definitely not celebrating, our strategy is the cornerstone of what we do, so need Order Of St George to win to restore parity. Our considered view is Battaash would have won with a sensible ride whilst Cracksman's head was never at the races! We knew after 2f he was in trouble - the explanation given was that the horse had been taking too much notice of the fillies and mares after arriving at the course earlier. This was evident down at the start where Frankie Dettori  was desperate to make his colt concentrate and even this great jockey failed on this occasion. Days like this remind us there is no such thing as a certainty! Despite the two losses we did nothing wrong.

Our winner yesterday was Settle For Bay at 16/1 to bolster our winner Monarchs Glen at 12/1 on Day 1. In the Queen Vase we nominated the 1-2-3 albeit in a different order. We omitted the Gosden favourite and the Tricast paid £69.15 whilst the Trifecta paid £52.40. We look forward to assisting our members with more precise and concise information for Day 3 and of course our Pacafi is Order Of St George.

2.30 Ascot: Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) 5f

15/15: Previous winners over 5f (100%)
15/15: Had at least 1 previous run (100%)
14/15: RPR of 106+ (93%)
13/15: Won their previous race (87%)
13/15: Never raced at Ascot before (87%)
..9/12: Won by a horse from stalls 7-12 (inc) (75%)
11/15: Foaled in March or April (73%
10/15: Favourites placed (67%)
..8/15: Returned 6/1 or shorter (53%)
..5/15: Returned a double-figure price (33%)
..3/15: Winning favourites (20%)
..3/15: Ran at Windsor last time out (20%)

The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

After the Coventry, the Norfolk Stakes is the best 2yo race at Royal Ascot with eight of the last 15 runnings going the way of the favourite or second-favourite (53%). Not so last year however as Sioux Nation recorded a 14/1 victory on his fifth start. This 5f Group 3 contest is very much for precocious types and, as such, very few winners have made a serious impact the following season. 15 of the last 24 winners had perfect records entering the race (63%) and seven of the last 12 winners arrived here with the profile of one run and one win (58%). All seven winners since 1997 that had run more than twice were beaten first time out (100%).

Last year's winner

Horse: Sioux Nation 14/1
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Season form figures: 3216
Previous Best: 1st - Maiden Race, Cork (May 2017)
Age: 2 Weight: 9st 1lbs

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: GLORY FIGHTER 12/1  2nd: KONCHEK 4/1  3rd: THE PADDOCKS 14/1

3.05 Ascot: Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) 1m2f

14/15: Not raced at Ascot before (93%)
10/12 Winners came from stalls 5 or higher (83%)
12/15: Had at least 2 previous runs that season (80%)
12/15: Returned 8/1 or shorter (80%)
10/15: Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (67%)
10/15: Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season (67%)
..8/12: Winners came from stall 5-9 (inc) (67%)
..9/15:  Won over 1m2f before (60%)
..7/15: Unplaced favourites (47%)
..6/15: Winning favourites (40%)
..4/15:  Ran at Epsom last time out (27%)
..2/15: Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (13%)
..2/15: Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (13%)
..2/15: Ridden by Ryan Moore (13%)
..0/12: Winner from stall 1 (0%)

The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 15/2

Last year's winner

Horse: Benbatl 9/2
Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Season form figures: 1325 
Previous Best: 5th - Derby, Epsom (June 2017)
Age: 3 Weight: 9st 0lbs

The Racing Horse Verdict


3.40 Ascot: Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) 1m4f

13/15: Had at least 2 previous races that season
12/15: Placed in their previous race (80%)
12/15: Never raced at Ascot before (80%)
11/15: Won over 1m2f or further before
10/15: Returned 5/1 or shorter (67%)
10/15: Placed favourites (67%)
..9/15:  Had exactly 2 previous runs that season (60%)
..6/12: Winners from stalls 3-6 (inc) (50%)
..7/15: Won their last race (47%)
..5/15: Irish-trained winners (4 of last 6) (33%)
..4/15: Winning favourites (27%)
..3/15: Won by a Godolphin-owned horse (20%)
..3/15: Ridden by Frankie Dettori (20%)
..1/12: Winners from stall 1 (8%)

Not a massively strong trends race and it generally pays to look to a later-developing improver as just six winners in the last 23 years had been contesting Group races as juveniles so the Ribblesdale boasts a very similar pattern in this respect to the colts' equivalent of this race at the Royal Meeting, the King Edward VII Stakes. 

The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 15/2

Last year's winner

Horse: Coronet 9/1
Trainer: John Gosden
Jockey: O Peslier
Season form figures: 35
Previous Best: 1st - Start Zetland Stakes (Listed Race)
Newmarket (October 2016)
Age: 3 Weight: 9st 0lbs

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: WILD ILLUSION 11/4 (finished second)  2nd: MAGIC WAND 9/2 (WINNER) 3rd: SUN MAIDEN 11/4 (finished third). Tricast paid £24.50 & Trifecta paid £39.60

4.20 Ascot: Gold Cup (Group 1) 2m 4f

14/16: No more than 2 previous runs that season (88%)
10/12 winners returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting (83%)
13/16: Won over at least 2 miles on the flat before (81%)
13/16: Had between 1-2 previous runs that season (81%)
12/16: Favourites that were placed (75%)
10/16: Previous Group 1 winners (63%)
11/16: Won their last race (69%)
7/12 winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting (58%)
9/16 : Aged 5yo or older (56%)
8/16: Won by the favourite (50%)
6/12 winners came from stalls 1-5 (inc) (50%)
7/16: Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (44%)
5/16: Ran at Sandown last time out (Henry II Stakes) (31%)

The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 11/2

Godolphin won the race in 1996, 1998, 2004 & 2012
Aidan O’Brien has trained the winner in 2016, 2014, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006
Since 1949 there have been 13 multiple winners of the race

Last year's winner 

Horse: Big Orange 5/1
Trainer: Michael Bell
Jockey: James Doyle
Season form figures: 41
Previous Best: 1st - Goodwood Cup (Group 2)
Goodwood, (July 2016)
Age: 6 Weight: 9st 2lbs

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: ORDER OF ST GEORGE 2/1  2nd: STRADIVARIUS 2/1 (WINNER)  3rd: TORCEDOR 14/1 (finished 3rd)

5.00 Ascot: Britannia Stakes Heritage Handicap (Class 2) 1m

13/15: No more than 3 previous runs that season (87%)
12/15: Failed to win previous race (80%)
12/15: Won a race over 7f or 1m before (80%)
11/15: Placed last time out (73%)
11/15: Carried 8st 13lbs or less (73%)
10/15: Never run at Ascot before (67%)
..8/12: Winners came from a double-figure stall (67%)
..9/15: Unplaced favourites (60%)
..9/15: Returned a double-figure price (60%)
..8/15: Had exactly 2 previous runs that season (53%)
..6/15:  Only won over 7f previously (40%)
..4/15:  Ridden by Jamie Spencer (27%)
..3/15: Ran at Haydock last time out (20%)
..3/15: Winning favourites (20%)
..2/15: Ridden by Ryan Moore (13%)

Featuring approximately 30 3yos, the majority of which are unexposed and from top yards is the most competitive 3yo handicap of the season. Despite its highly-competitive edge, it has actually been a very good race for favourites with five of the last 19 obliging. In fact, two-thirds of the last 27 winners could be found in the first half-dozen in the betting so this isn’t punter’s nightmare that many believe to be the case.

The average winning SP in the last 14 years s 13/1

Last year's winner

Horse: Bless Him 25/1
Trainer: David Simcock
Jockey: Jamie Spencer
Season form figures: 2135
Previous Best: 1st - Maiden Stakes, Chelmsford (April 2017)
Age: 3 Weight: 8st 9lbs

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: SAM GOLD 12/1  2nd: CORROSIVE 14/1  3rd: OSTILLO 16/1 (WINNER)  4th: CRACK ON CRACK ON 8/1

5.35 Ascot: King George V Stakes Handicap (Class 2) 1m4f

15/15: Had at least 2 previous runs that same season (100%)
15/15: Had between 2 and 4 previous runs that season (100%)
14/15: Never raced at Ascot before (93%)
14/15: Placed last time out (93%)
12/15: Carried 8st 13lbs or lesss (80%)
..9/12: Winners came between stalls 10-20 (inc) (75%)
10/15: Had won over at least 1m2f previously (67%)
..7/12: Winners came between stalls 10-15 (inc) (58%)
..8/15: Favourites placed (53%)
..8/15: Returned 9/1 or bigger (53%)
..7/15: Won their previous race (47%)
..5/15: Won by trainers Sir Michael Stoute (2) or Mark Johnston (3) (33%)
..4/15: Ran at Haydock last time out (27%)
..3/15: Winning favourites (2 joint) (20%)

The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 13/1

With 16 of the last 25 winners (64%) failing to win as a 2yo, we should be looking towards the later-developing types and preferably from one of the higher-profile yards. The more lightly-raced the individual, the more interested we should be and also respect the value of a good run last time out as 27 of the last 29 winners (93%) either won or finished placed on their most recent start.

Last year's winner

Horse: Atty Persse 7/1
Trainer: Roger Charlton
Jockey: Keiran Shoemark
Season form figures: 12
Previous Best: 1st - Maiden Stakes, Sandown (September 2017)
Deauville (May 2015)
Age: 3 Weight: 8st 10lbs

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: OCCUPY 25/1 (Would have won with a clear run) 2nd: FIRST ELEVEN 13/2 (finished 3rd beaten a neck and a nose)  3rd: CORG1 14/1 (finished second beaten a neck)  4th: HE'S AMAZING 25/1

  Today's Pacafi: click here


Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.


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