Royal Ascot Trends (Thursday Day 4)

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The Racing Horse NEVER uses the word luck on this site, there is only winners and losers. In the King George V Stakes Handicap we are certain Occupy at 25/1 would have won with a fair run. We found the other two placed horses at 14/1 and 13/2 but the ledger says -1pt. In the Britannia Stakes our third best won at 16/1. In the Ribblesdale our three nominations made up the Tricast and Trifecta paying £24.50 and £39.60 respectively.

We were bitterly disappointed with our best bet of the meeting Order Of St George (went maximum stakes) and especially after the run of Cracksman, both decided to be mulish within 24 hours of each other and these followed the poor ride of Jim Crowley on Battaash. The ledger has recorded -3pts and today we go to Market Rasen to find a winner though we like the chances of Alpha Centauri in the Coronation Cup.

After Day 3 we are still up +12pts and despite the results hope the information had some value to our members. We have a good feel about today...

2.30 Ascot: Albany Stakes (Group 3) 6f

15/15: Had between 1 and 2 previous runs (100%)
15/15: Never raced at Ascot before (100%)
12/12: Winners came from double-figure stalls (100%)
14/15: Won by either a February or March foal (93%)
14/15: Finished in the top 3 last time out (93%)
..9/12: Winners came from stalls 11-14 (inc) (75%)
11/15: Placed favourites (73%)
11/15: Won their previous race (73%)
..9/15: Returned a double-figure price (60%)
..7/15: Won by trainers Channon (2), Hannon (3) or Noseda (2) (47%)
..4/15: Previous winner over 6f (27%)
..4/15: Winning favourites (27%)
..3/15:  Ran at Sandown last time (20%)


The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 12/1

Strong trends are thin on the ground but it is of note that all but two of the 16 winners contested a maiden last time out (88%) with ten winning (Cuis Ghaire is the only winner to have won a Group race beforehand) and eight winners were having just their second career start here. Sandown form should be respected as three of the 16 winners had run at the Esher track.

Last year's winner

Horse: Different League 20/1
Trainer: M Palussiere
Jockey: A Hamelin
Season form figures: 11
Previous Best: 1st - Prix de Puycharic (Conditions)
Anger (May 2017)
Age: 2 Weight: 9st 0lbs

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: JUST WONDERFUL 9/4  2nd: BYRON BAY 28/1  3rd: LA PELOSA 12/1 (finished second)

3.05 Ascot: King Edward V11 Stakes (Group 2) 1m4f

15/15: Had at least 2 previous runs that season (100%)
14/15: Returned 9/1 or shorter (93%)
11/12: Winners returned 9/1 or shorter (92%)
10/12: Winners came from stalls 4-8 (inc) (83%)
12/15: Never raced at Ascot before (80%)
11/15: Placed favourites (73%)
10/15: Finished in the top three last time out (67%)
..9/15: Won over at least 1m2f before (60%)
..8/15: Won at least 2 previous races during their career (53%)
..5/15: Won a Listed or better class race (33%)
..4/15: Winning favourites (27%)
..3/15: Trained by John Gosden (20%)
..3/15:  Ridden by Frankie Dettori (20%)
..3/15: Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (20%)
..3/15: Trained by Mark Johnston (20%)
..0/12: No winner from stall 1 (0%)


The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 11/2

Of the last 22 winners, all but four were winning a Group race for the first time (82%) and, of the last 23 winners, only six had failed to visit the Winners' Enclosure earlier in the season (74%)

The King Edward VII Stakes has been a punter-friendly race with 16 of the last 24 winners starting favourite or second favourite (67%)

Last year's winner

Horse: Permian 6/1
Trainer: Mark Johnston
Jockey: William Buick
Season form figures: 32110
Previous Best: 1st - Dante Stakes (Group 2) York (May 2017)
Age: 3 Weight: 9st 0lbs

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: OLD PERSIAN 5/1 (WINNER)  2nd: DELANO ROOSEVELT 3/1  3rd: GUISEPPE GARIBALDI 8/1 (finished third)

3.40 Ascot: The Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) 6f

This is the only the fourth running of this Grade 1 race over 6f for 3yos which has proved to be such a hit so it will take a good few years for trends to bed in.

In the first year it was won by the Champion Sprinter, Muhaarar, beating Limato into second place. The 2016 running wasn’t quite as high quality but the winner, Quiet Reflection, went on to add the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock Park. Last season’s race was considered by many to be the race of the meeting heading into Royal Ascot and it was Caravaggio that came out on top beating the eventual champion sprinter, Harry Angel.

Last year's winner

Horse: Caravaggio 5/6
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Season form figures: 1
Previous Best: 1st - Phoenix Stakes (Group 1) 
The Curragh (August 2016)
Age: 3 Weight: 9st 3lbs

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: MAIN DESIRE 22/1  2nd: HEARTACHE 22/1  3rd: EQUILATERAL 9/2

4.20 Ascot: Coronation Cup (Group 1) 1m

16/16: Won over at least 7f before (100%)
15/16: Returned 8/1 or shorter (94%)
11/12: Winners returned 8/1 or shorter (92%)
10/12: Winners came from stalls 5 or higher (83%)
13/16: Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season (81%)
12/16: Won a Group 1 or 2 previously (75%)
11/16: Won over at least a 1 mile before (69%)
..6/12: Winners were non UK-trained, 3 French & 3 Irish (50%)
..8/16: Ran at Ascot before (3 winners) (50%)
..8/16: Ran in that season’s English 1,000 Guineas (50%)
..7/16: Were unplaced last time out (44%)
..7/16: Winning favourites (1 joint) (44%)
..4/16: Ran in that season’s Irish 1,000 Guineas (25%)
..3/16: Trained by Aidan O’Brien (19%)
..0/12: Winners from stall 1 (0%)


The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 5/1

15 of the last 18 winners found at no bigger than 6/1 (83%) with nine starting favourite or joint market leader (50%).

Of the big three European versions of the 1000 Guineas, the Newmarket version has wiped the floor with its Irish and French equivalents in recent years being responsible for ten of the last 15 winners and seven of those finished in the first six at Newmarket so that has to the first port of call.

Last year's winner 

Horse: Winter 4/9
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Season form figures: 211
Previous Best: 1st - 1000 Guineas (Group 1) Newmarket (May 2017)
Age: 3 Weight: 9st 0lbs

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: ALPHA CENTAURI 7/2 (WINNER)  2nd: BILLESDON BROOK 13/2  3rd: COEUR DE BEAUTE 14/1

5.00 Ascot: Sandringham Handicap (Listed) 1m

14/16: Returned 12/1 or shorter (88%)
14/16: Had between 2 and 4 previous runs that season (88%)
13/16: Never run at Ascot before (81%)
12/16: Won over at least 7f before (75%)
11/16: Favourites that finished in the top 4 (69%)
11/16: Carried 8st 11lbs or more (69%)
10/16: Placed in their previous race (63%)
..7/16: Had exactly 3 runs already that season (44%)
..7/16: Won their last race (44%)
..7/16: Returned a double-figure price (44%)
..5/16: Winning favourites (1 co) (31%)
..3/16: Ridden by Jamie Spencer (19%)
..3/16: Ridden by Frankie Dettori (7 winners in all) (19%)


The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 17/2

17 of the last 22 winners had visited the Winner's Enclosure at some point earlier in the campaign (77%)

It has been a good idea to look at later developers as 11 winners since 1995 started the season as a maiden. Last-time-out maiden winners should be treated with some scepticism however with the last such winner being back in 2000. 

Last year's winner

Horse: Con Te Partiro 20/1
Trainer: Wesley Ward
Jockey: Jamie Spencer
Season form figures: 4
Previous Best: 1st - Bolton Landing Stakes, Saratoga (August 2016)
Age: 3 Weight: 9st 3lbs

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: SHIP OF DREAMS 22/1  2nd: TAJAANUS 33/1  3rd: DESERT DIAMOND 11/1  4th: DATHANNA 18/1

5.35 Ascot: Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap (Class 2) 1m4f

15/15: Aged 4 or 5yo (100%)
14/15: Won over at least 1m2f before (93%)
14/15: Had at least 2 previous career wins to their name (93%)
11/12: Winners came from a double-figure stall (92%)
12/15: Carried 9st 0lbs or more (80%)
11/15: Placed last time out (73%)
10/15: Had at least 2 previous runs that season (67%)
..9/15: Trained by Hughie Morrison (3), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (4) (60%)
..7/12: Winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting (58%)
..8/15: Won over 1m4f before (53%)
..7/15: Ran at Ascot before (47%)
..7/15: Returned a double-figure price (47%)
..6/15: Ran at either York or Epsom last time (inc 6 of last 7 runnings) (40%)
..5/15: Unplaced favourites (33%)
..5/15: Ran at Newmarket last time (33%)
..4/15: Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (27%)
..2/15: Winning favourites (13%)


The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 11/1

Horses drawn wider in double-figure stalls have won all seven runnings (100%) since the switch of stall numbers which is total contrast to the Wolferton Handicap over 2f shorter where the bend comes up much quicker and there is less time for jockeys to get organised, so don’t be put off arguments suggesting the higher-drawn horses are up against it over this 1m4f trip. In fact, last season’s 1-2-4 were drawn 19, 18, 17 a year after a 1-2-3 of horses drawn 19, 13 and 15.

Last-time-out winners hold the call having been responsible for 11 of the last 23 winners (48%) which is an excellent return given they supply, on average, around 25% of the total runners

 

Last year's winner

Horse: Rare Rhythm 20/1
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: William Buick
Season form figures: Seasonal debut
Previous Best: 1st - Class 2 Handicap, Newmarket (September 2015)
Deauville (May 2015)
Age: 5 Weight: 9st 2lbs

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: EYNHALLOW 12/1  2nd: DASH OF SPICE 5/1 (WINNER)  3rd: THUNDERING BLUE 6/1  4th: WALTON STREET 10/1 (finished third)

  Today's Pacafi: click here

REMEMBER!

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

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