Royal Ascot Trends (Saturday Day 5)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Another good day with our trends yesterday as we scored with a Royal Ascot 26/1 win double taking our profits to +16.5pts to level-stakes. Our best bet of the day Alpha Centauri stormed home.

After looking at trainer form, optimum ground and class this really is the best place to start!

2.30 Ascot: Chesham Stakes (Listed) 7f

15/15: Had no more than 2 previous career runs (100%)
14/15: Finished in the top 3 last time out (93%)
11/12: Winners came between stalls 1-8 (92%)
13/15: Ran over 6f last time out (8 won) (87%)
13/15: Had just 1 previous career run (87%)
12/15: Were foaled in March or earlier ((80%)
..9/12: Winners returned 10/1 or shorter (75%)
10/15: Won their previous race (67%)
10/15: Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting (67%)
..6/12: winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 7 (3) (50%)
..5/15: Winning favourites (1 joint) (33%)
..3/15: Irish trained-winners (Aiden O’Brien) (20%)
..2/15: Trained by Mark Johnston (13%)
..2/15: Trained by Richard Hannon (13%)

Trainer Paul Cole has won the race 4 times before
Ryan Moore has ridden the winners in 2011, 2016 and 2017
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 7/1 

25 of the last 29 winners could be found in the first four in the betting and 12 of those winners started favourite (including joint-favourites) and all four odds-on shots within that time period were successful. 12 of the last 20 winners had won their sole start whereas three of the last five winners, Berkshire, Richard Pankhurst and Churchill, were beaten on their on their only previous run and the 1996 winner, Shamikh, was having his racecourse debut. 

Last year's winner

Horse: September 11/8
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Previous Best: 1st - Fillies Maiden Race
Leopardstown (June 2017)
Age: 2 Weight: 8st 12lbs

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: NATALIE'S JOY 6/4  2nd: BEYOND REASON 6/1  3rd: ARTHUR KITT 12/1 (WINNER)

3.05 Ascot: Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) 1m4f

15/15: Won over at least 1m2f before (100%)
15/15: Won a Group 2 or 3 previously (100%)
13/15: Placed last time out (87%)
13/15: Won over 1m4f before (87%)
10/12: Winners returned 8/1 or shorter (83%)
11/15: Had at least 2 previous runs that season (73%)
11/15: Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (6) (73%)
..8/12: Winners returned 9/2 or shorter (67%)
10/15: Ran at Ascot before (67%)
10/15: Aged 4yo (inc last 8 winners) (67%)
..9/15: Placed favourites (60%)
..9/15: Returned 9/2 or shorter (60%)
..6/12: Winners came from stalls 2-5 (inc) (50%)
..6/15: Ran at Epsom last time out (Coronation Cup) (40%)
..6/15: Won previous race (40%)
..5/15: Winning favourites (33%)
..3/15: Ridden by Ryan Moore (20%)
..0/12 winnrs from stall 1 (0%)

The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 11/2

Four-year-olds have now won the last ten runnings. At the age of six in 1985, Jupiter Island is the only winner over the age of five since 1905.

Last year's winner

Horse: Idaho 9/2
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
Jockey: J Heffernan
Season form figures: 6
Previous Best: 3rd - Derby (Group 1), Epsom (June 2016)
Age: 4 Weight: 9st 1lbs

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: CRYSTAL OCEAN 8/13 (WINNER)  2nd: BARSANTI 11/2 

3.40 Ascot: Windsor Castle Staakes (Listed) 5f

16/16: Had at least 1 previous outing (100%)
15/16: Won by a foal born April or earlier (94%)
15/16: Had 2 or 3 previous runs (94%)
13/16: Won over 5f before (81%)
..7/10: Winners came from a double-figure stall (70%)
11/16: Placed last time out (69%)
11/16: Never run at Ascot before (69%)
..8/16: Won their previous race (50%)
..9/16: Returned a double-figure price (inc a 100/1 winner) (56%)
..8/16: Unplaced favourites (50%)
..6/16: Won by a February foal (38%)
..3/16: Winning favourites (19%)
..2/16: Trained by Wesley Ward (13%)
..1/10: horse placed from stall 1 (10%)

The average winning SP in the last 16 year/s is 17/1

The Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) is the weakest two-year-old race of Royal Ascot from a quality perspective which contributes to why it is weak on trends. Seven of the last 12 winners started at 100/1, 33/1, 20/1 (x2), 16/1 (x2) and 14/1 so it has also been the hardest two-year-old race of the meeting to solve and the tide has turned in a big way as far as the market being a guide is concerned as the previous 21 winners up until 2006 had started in the first six in the betting. Two of the last three runners-up were also sent off at 100/1. 

Last year's winner

Horse: Sound And Silence 16/1
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: William Buick
Season form figures: 14
Previous Best: 4th - National Stakes (Listed Race) 
Sandown (May 2017) 
The Curragh (August 2016)
Age: 2 Weight: 9st 3lbs

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: SABRE 12/1  (finished second) 2nd: QUEEN OF BERMUDA 7/1  3rd: SOLDIER'S CALL 14/1 (WINNER) 4th: MOONLIGHT ROMANCE 11/2.

Exacta paid £270.60 and CSF paid £146.63

4.20 Ascot: Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) 6f

14/15: Previous distance (6f) winners (93%)
12/15: Failed to win their last race (80%)
12/15: Aged 5yo or younger (80%)
12/15: Previous Group Race winners (80%)
11/15: Ran at Ascot before (73%)
..9/15: Won by a UK-based yard (60%)
..8/15: Returned a double-figure price (53%)
..7/15: Unplaced favourites (47%)
..6/13: Winners returned a double-figure price (46%)
..5/15: Ran in the King’s Stand Stakes earlier at the meeting (33%)
..3/15: Winning favourite (joint) (20%)
..5/13: Winners were Irish-bred (38%)
..7/13: Winners came from a double-figure draw (54%)
..0/13: Winner from stall 1 (0%)

The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 13/1

Previous Royal Ascot form has been a useful pointer as 10 of the last 22 winners had been placed at worst at this meeting before. 

Last year's winner 

Horse: The Tin Man 9/2
Trainer: James Fanshawe
Jockey: Tom Queally
Season form figures: 6
Previous Best:  1st - British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) 
Ascot (Oct 2016)
Age: 5 Weight: 9st 3lbs

The Racing Horse Verdict


5.00 Ascot: Wokingham Stakes Heritage Handicap (Class 2) 6f

18/18: Won before over 6f or 7f (100%)
18/18: Had no more than 4 runs that season (100%)
17/18:  Ran within the last 6 weeks (94%)
17/18: Finished sixth or better last time out (94%)
16/18: Won a race over 6f before (89%)
...7/8: Winners came from a double-figure stall (88%)
...6/7: Top 2 finishers all came from double-figure stalls (86%)
15/18: Aged 4 or 5yo (83%)
10/12: Winners carried 9st 3lbs or less in weight (83%)
30/37: Winners returning a double-figure price (81%)
12/18: Had at least 2 runs already that season (67%)
..8/12: Winners returned 14/1 or shorter (67%)
..8/12: Winners came from a double-figure draw (67%)
11/18: Returned a double-figure price in the betting (61%)
..9/18: Ran at Ascot before (6 had won here) (50%)
..8/18: Ran at either Ascot, Goodwood or Newmarket last time (28%)
..5/18: Won their previous race (28%)
..4/18: Won by the favourite (22%)
..7/37: Winning favourites (19%)

The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 13/1 

The best advice is to stick to 4 and 5yos that have won 16 of the last 19 runnings. A 3yo has not won since Bel Byou triumphed in 1987 though, in fairness, they only average a couple of runners per renewal. In-form horses have very much held sway with 17 of the last 21 winners finishing in the first four last time.

Last year's winner

Horse: Out Do 25/2
Trainer: David O'Meara
Jockey: Danny Tudhope
Season form figures: 304
Previous Best:  1st - City Walls Stakes (Listed Race)
York (July 2015)
Age: 8 Weight: 8st 13lbs

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: GILGAMESH 14/1  2nd: SILENT ECHO 20/1  3rd: MAJOR JUMBO 28/1 (finished third)  4th: DREAMFIELD 4/1 (finished second)

5.35 Ascot: Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (Class 2) 2m5f159y

11/12: Winners ALL came from stalls 9-16 (inc) (92%)
13/15: Finished unplaced last time out (87%)
10/12: Winners came from a double-figure stall (83%)
..8/12: Winners returned 6/1 or shorter (67%)
..9/15: Aged 4, 5 or 6yo (60%)
..9/15: Won over at least 2m on the flat before (60%)
..8/15: Ran at Ascot before (53%)
..4/15: Won by a NH yard (27%)
..4/15: Irish-trained winners (27%)
..3/15: Winning favourites (20%)
..3/15: Ridden by Ryan Moore (20%)
..2/15: Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (13%)
..2/15: Trained by Willie Mullins (13%)

The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

Given its extreme distance for a flat race of 2m5½f, not all runners truly stay the Queen Alexandra Stakes so it used to be generally uncompetitive and therefore offered the punter a real chance of finishing the meeting on a high so fancied horses usually came to the fore for the win and places and 21 of the last 27 winners started at no bigger than 8/1. Not so Oriental Fox last year though who won at 10/1 adding to his triumph in this race of two years earlier. 

Last year's winner

Horse: Oriental Fox 10/1
Trainer: Mark Johnston
Jockey: Joe Fanning
Season form figures: 25
Previous Best: 1st - Queen Alexandra Stakes, Royal Ascot (June 2015)
Age: 9 Weight: 9st 5lbs

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: COUNT OCTAVE 6/1 (finished third)  2nd: NEARLY CAUGHT 12/1  3rd: LIGHT PILLAR 20/1

  Today's Pacafi: click here


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