Most things in racing are subjective but…

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

CONTENDERS v PRETENDERS

Using trends to sort the contenders from the pretenders is a good place to start when looking for the winner and especially in those bigger fields where there are lurkers hidden from the pundit view. It is a good place to start but not the best! Our best advice is to confirm whether the trainer is in form with his horses in a general sense. What is good form and what is bad form? This is different from trainer to trainer, for example if John Gosden and Harry Dunlop were averaging a 12% win strike-rate we would consider the latter to be in better form from a relative sense! Gosden has a national average of 22% and even a rate of 16% would be a negative whilst Dunlop has one of 8%. Obviously we would need a proper sample of runners to prove the form line.

SUBJECTIVE

Once we have filtered those horses we look for placed and win form on the day's going conditions and make sure they are up to the class of the race. Most things in racing are subjective but the official rating figure is there to help us and we use these to filter further. Where we cannot use the OR we use the RPR.

SANDOWN TRENDS for Saturday 7th July 2018

We have more trends from Sandown on Sunday and we hope to continue our great form shown so far this year. Those who have been following our advice are significantly in profit. Last week we found a 22/1 and 7/2 winner from the five races we looked at.

Looking at the first race at Sandown on Saturday we will be looking for a trainer in form, placed or win form on the going, a competent jockey, who had raced in the last 4 weeks, running from stall 1 to 4 inclusive (maybe stall 5 or 6) and from the first four in the betting. For this race we are less concerned with the age of the horse, more information on Friday night before 6pm...

12.20 Sandown: Coral Charge Sprint Stakes (Group 3) 5f6y

16/16: Raced within the last 4 weeks (100%)
15/16: Returned 7/1 or shorter (94%)
10/12: Winners from stalls 1-4 (inc) (83%)
13/16: Favourites placed (81%)
12/16: Won at least 3 times before (75%)
12/16: Came from the top 3 in the betting (75%)
12/16: Aged 3 or 4yo (75%)
10/16: Finished in the top 4 last time out (63%)
..7/12: Irish bred winners (58%)
..7/16: Winning favourites (44%)
..6/16: Won at Sandown before (38%)
..5/16: Ran at Ascot last time out (31%)
..4/16: Won last time out (25%)


The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: JUDICIAL 4/1 (WINNER)  2nd: HADDAF 9/1  3rd: DREAM OF DREAMS 8/1

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12.55 Sandown: Coral Challenge Handicap (Class 2) 1m

15/16: Aged 6yo or younger (94%)
14/16: Carried 8st 8lbs more (88%)
14/16: Had 2 or more runs already that season (88%)
14/16: Previous winners over 1m (or further) (88%)
12/16: Didn’t win their previous race (75%)
..9/12: Winners from stall 8 or lower (75%)
10/16: Placed favourites (63%)
10/16: Aged 4yo (63%)
10/16: Ran at Sandown before (63%)
..8/16: Returned a double-figure price in the betting (50%)
..6/16: Ran at either York (2) or Ascot (4) last time out (38%)
..3/16: Winning favourites (19%)
..2/16: Trained by Andrew Balding (13%)


Secret Act (16/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 12/1

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: ESCOBAR 10/1 (Finished 2nd)  2nd: VIA SERENDIPITY 10/1 (Finished 3rd)  3rd: TIGRE DU TERRE 8/1 (WINNER) 

All three nominations were supported in the market with Tigre Du Terre backed from an easy to get 8/1 into 9/2. These three made up the TRICAST which paid a huge £333.42 whilst the TRIFECTA paid a whopping £391.50. These trends really are a great tool and we hope at least one member collected.

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1.30 Sandown: Coral Distaff (Listed) 1m

15/15: Had at least 1 previous run already that season (100%)
12/12: Winners came from stalls 3-8 (inc) (100%)
14/15: Never run at Sandown before (93%)
13/15: Won over 7f or further before (87%)
12/15: Returned 9/1 or shorter (80%)
..9/15: Finished in the top three last time out (75%)
..9/12: Winners came from stalls 3-4-5 or 6 (75%)
..8/15: Favourites that finished in the top three (53%)
..4/15: Winning favourites (27%)
..4/15: Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (27%)
..3/15: Ridden by Ryan Moore (20%)


The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

The Racing Horse Verdict

1st: PREENING 6/1 (Finished 3rd)  2nd: GAVOTA 10/1  3rd: BROADWAY 14/1

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

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