Pacafi (7 July 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

  THRIVING 2.35 Beverley at 11/10. 1pt win advised

Industrial Racking Supplies Limited EBF Maiden Stakes (5f)

 .

Pedigree: 30,000gns Y; fifth foal; half-sister to winners Fit The Bill (9.4f-1m4f inc AW; RPR 87) and Cape Peninsular (1m4f AW; 93); dam 1m4f winner (74), half-sister to 1m2f-1m3f Group 3 winner Blue Monday, granddaughter of 7f 2yo Listed winner

Optimum Ground: Good (10)
Optimum Distance: 6f (10)
Jockey Booking: Jack Mitchell (9)
Trainer Form: 7-25 for 28% (10)
RPR: 86 (10)
The Racing Horse Composite: 49/50

Main danger: Robeam 14/1

Sandown debut form boosted

Thriving has plenty of stamina on dam's side but showed enough speed for Sandown's 5f course when second there on debut 22 days ago. Boosting the form the first and third have underpinned the form since and his RPR of 86 sets a high standard for the newcomers to aim at. The market will tell us which one of those has the best chance.

Beverley is one stiff sprint track

She was not fancied for that debut going off at 12/1 so surprised the stable but she clearly knew her job well enough and she stayed on best of the others. This was a nice effort on debut and she can pick up a similar race once tackling 6f, she is racing over 5f which initially was a bit of a surprise but we must appreciate the 5f course at Beverley is uphill all the way so definitely takes some getting and probably plays like a 6f.

War of attrition

Early season 2yo races over 5f can be wars of attrition rather than speedfests. Along with the 5f at Chester, the 5f at Beverley is probably the biggest and best known draw bias in the country. Quite simply low drawn runners at Beverley over 5 furlongs have a massive advantage. We are drawn 5 of 10 but we ought to get a pitch given our Pacafi has experience of a race track. Thriving also receives 5lbs from all of her rivals so if things get tight this will help.

Trainer form

Trainer Roger Varian has his horses well. June showed him scoring 13 winners from 61 runners for a 21% strike-rate and July 2-5 for 40%. At Beverley he scores 6-20 for 30% (+4.98pts) and he sends just this one to this course and Jack Mitchell rides. When he combines with the trainer they register 32-180 for 18%.

Of her rivals

King of Tonga, Roulston Scar and Sosume all make appeal on paper though, and market confidence behind any of that trio will need to be viewed positively. Robeam finished closer at Redcar last time but not expected to trouble the judge.

 Timeform Analyst's Verdict

Thriving knew what was required and offered something to work on when runner-up on debut at Sandown 3 weeks ago and, with that form having been boosted subsequently, she is fancied to make it second time lucky. King of Tonga, Roulston Scar and Sosume all make appeal on paper though, and market confidence behind any of that trio will need to be viewed positively.

Value

Cannot be sure if we have value but a RPR of 86 will take some beating especially as our Pacafi has the form standard, is expected to improve, suited to a stiff track and receives 5lbs.

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *