July Cup (Saturday 14 July 2018)

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The Racing Horse takes an in-depth look at The July Cup (Group 1) contest run over 6f at Newmarket in a race that attracts the best sprinters all around the world each year. The race is worth around £225,000 to the winner.

The key trends in this race is finding a horse 5yo or younger who had won over 6f before with last run at Ascot last time out. For this race we will ignore any horse trained outside of the UK

BLUE POINT to win 2018 JULY CUP

The Sharmadal colt Blue Point is a 4yo, has won over 6f before, ran at Royal Ascot last time out, is currenlty trading at less than 12/1, trained in the UK, had between 1-3 runs this season, won a Group 1, raced in the King's Stands Stakes so winning his previous race. Our selection for the race can only be BLUE POINT and we have taken the 10/3 (Ladbrokes, Betfair and Coral 09.26)

VERY PLEASED  - CHARLIE APPLEBY

Trainer Charlie Appleby told us: “I’m delighted with the way he’s come out of the race and looking forward to him stepping back up to six, He held the course record at Ascot as a 3yo so I see no negatives about going up in trip again. Most importantly the horse has done well and we’re very pleased with the way he’s going into the race. When he produces his ‘A’ game hopefully he’ll be as good over five and six. What we saw in the King’s Stand, he saw it out well. They went a rare gallop. Battaash set a good gallop. One thing Blue Point was always going to do was he was going to hit the line strong."

HERE IS A REMINDER OF THAT RACE...

49/50: Aged 5yo or younger (98%)
14/16: Won over 6f before (88%)
13/16: Ran at Royal Ascot last time out (81%)
13/16: Returned 12/1 or shorter (81%)
13/16: Won by a horse trained in the UK (81%)
13/16: Had between 1-3 previous runs that season (81%)
12/16: Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before (75%)
10/16: Placed last time out (63%)
..9/16: Ran last time in the King’s Stand Stakes or Diamond Jubilee (56%)
..8/16: Unplaced favourites (50%)
..6/16: Won their previous race (38%)
..5/16: Winning favourites (31%)
..2/16:  Trained By Hughie Morrison (13%)
..2/16: Irish-trained winners (13%)
..1/16: French-trained winners (6%)


The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 8/1
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 3 times before (1999, 2001 & 2010)

The last 16 winners of the race are:

2017:  Harry Angel (9/2)
2016:  Limato (9/2 fav)
2015:  Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014:  Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013:  Lethal Force (9/2)
2012:  Mayson (20/1)
2011:  Dream Ahead (7/1)
2010:  Starspangledbanner (2/1 fav)
2009:  Fleeting Spirit (12/1)
2008:  Marchand d’Or (5/2 fav)
2007:  Sakhee’s Secret (9/2)
2006:  Les Arcs (10/1)
2005:  Pastoral Pursuits (22/1)
2004:  Frizzante (14/1)
2003:  Oasis Dream (9/2)
2002:  Continent (12/1)

TIMEFORM ANALYST'S VERDICT

An open-looking renewal with a nice mix of 3-y-os and older horses, but the latter group has the best form as it stands, notably BLUE POINT, who proved better than ever when winning the King's Stand at Royal Ascot last month. Dreamfield is a fascinating runner, while Eqtidaar and U S Navy Flag look the pick of the 3-y-os.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: BLUE POINT 10/3  2nd: SANDS OF MALI 8/1  3rd: EQTIDAAR 7/1

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

REMEMBER!

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

 Disclaimer
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