The Racing Horse takes an in-depth look at The July Cup (Group 1) contest run over 6f at Newmarket in a race that attracts the best sprinters all around the world each year. The race is worth around £225,000 to the winner.
The key trends in this race is finding a horse 5yo or younger who had won over 6f before with last run at Ascot last time out. For this race we will ignore any horse trained outside of the UK
BLUE POINT to win 2018 JULY CUP
The Sharmadal colt Blue Point is a 4yo, has won over 6f before, ran at Royal Ascot last time out, is currenlty trading at less than 12/1, trained in the UK, had between 1-3 runs this season, won a Group 1, raced in the King's Stands Stakes so winning his previous race. Our selection for the race can only be BLUE POINT and we have taken the 10/3 (Ladbrokes, Betfair and Coral 09.26)
VERY PLEASED - CHARLIE APPLEBY
Trainer Charlie Appleby told us: “I’m delighted with the way he’s come out of the race and looking forward to him stepping back up to six, He held the course record at Ascot as a 3yo so I see no negatives about going up in trip again. Most importantly the horse has done well and we’re very pleased with the way he’s going into the race. When he produces his ‘A’ game hopefully he’ll be as good over five and six. What we saw in the King’s Stand, he saw it out well. They went a rare gallop. Battaash set a good gallop. One thing Blue Point was always going to do was he was going to hit the line strong."
49/50: Aged 5yo or younger (98%)
14/16: Won over 6f before (88%)
13/16: Ran at Royal Ascot last time out (81%)
13/16: Returned 12/1 or shorter (81%)
13/16: Won by a horse trained in the UK (81%)
13/16: Had between 1-3 previous runs that season (81%)
12/16: Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before (75%)
10/16: Placed last time out (63%)
..9/16: Ran last time in the King’s Stand Stakes or Diamond Jubilee (56%)
..8/16: Unplaced favourites (50%)
..6/16: Won their previous race (38%)
..5/16: Winning favourites (31%)
..2/16: Trained By Hughie Morrison (13%)
..2/16: Irish-trained winners (13%)
..1/16: French-trained winners (6%)
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 8/1
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 3 times before (1999, 2001 & 2010)
The last 16 winners of the race are:
2017: Harry Angel (9/2)
2016: Limato (9/2 fav)
2015: Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014: Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013: Lethal Force (9/2)
2012: Mayson (20/1)
2011: Dream Ahead (7/1)
2010: Starspangledbanner (2/1 fav)
2009: Fleeting Spirit (12/1)
2008: Marchand d’Or (5/2 fav)
2007: Sakhee’s Secret (9/2)
2006: Les Arcs (10/1)
2005: Pastoral Pursuits (22/1)
2004: Frizzante (14/1)
2003: Oasis Dream (9/2)
2002: Continent (12/1)
TIMEFORM ANALYST'S VERDICT
An open-looking renewal with a nice mix of 3-y-os and older horses, but the latter group has the best form as it stands, notably BLUE POINT, who proved better than ever when winning the King's Stand at Royal Ascot last month. Dreamfield is a fascinating runner, while Eqtidaar and U S Navy Flag look the pick of the 3-y-os.
THE RACING HORSE VERDICT
1st: BLUE POINT 10/3 2nd: SANDS OF MALI 8/1 3rd: EQTIDAAR 7/1
Today's Pacafi: click here
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