Racing Trends – Newmarket July Meeting (Day 1)

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The racing at the Newmarket July Meeting Day 1 kicks off with The Kingdom of Bahrain Trophy. The Racing Horse has all the trends to help our members find those winners! Members know how valuable this profiling is in combination with their own thought processes. If the member is unsure they can follow our betting advice!

The first race was originally a handicap race over 1m6f175y and was upgraded to Listed status in 1990. The name of the race was changed in 1991 to the Bahrain Trophy and in 2006 the distance was cut to 1m 5f. The race then gained Group 3 status in 2009. Frankie Dettori has won the first two named races 10 times in total and an extraordinary record!

1.50 Newmarket: Bahrain Trophy (Group 3) 1m5f

16/16: Had 2 or more previous runs that season (100%)
14/16: Failed to win last time out (88%)
14/16: Never run on the Newmarket July Course before (88%)
11/16: Ran at Royal Ascot last time out (69%)
10/16: Favourites placed in the top three (63%)
10/16: Won at 3/1 or shorter (63%)
10/16: Won over 1m2f (or further) before (63%)
..8/14: Winners were top rated (57%)
..9/16: Finished fifth or worse in their previous race (56%)
..7/14: Won on today's going conditions (50%)
..5/16: Winning favourites (31%)
..4/16: Trained by John Gosden (inc 4 of last 7 runnings) (25%)
..3/14: Previously won at the course (21%)
..3/16: Ridden by Frankie Dettori, 6 wins in total (19%)
..2/16: Ridden by William Buick (13%)
..2/16: Winners that came from stall 1 (13%
..0/15: Won over the same distance (0%)

The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2
In the last 14 years 16/1 was the highest SP and 2/7 the lowest.
Raheen House (7/2) won the race in 2017 

TIMEFORM ANALYST'S VERDICT

First Eleven looked a Group horse in the making when unlucky not to win the King George V Stakes (Handicap) at Royal Ascot 3 weeks ago and can provide John Gosden with a sixth win in this event. Loxley was impressive when making a winning return here and has more improvement in him, while this represents a drop in class for Giuseppe Garibaldi.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: GUISEPPE GARIBALDI 7/2 (finished 3rd)  2nd: LOXLEY 4/1 (finished 2nd) 3rd: FIRST ELEVEN 3/1

*****

This is the oldest surviving race for 2yo’s in Britain having been established in 1786.

2.25 Newmarket: Arqana July Stakes (Group 2) 6f

15/16: Placed in their last run (94%)
15/16: Won over 5 or 6f previously (94%)
13/16: Had 2 or more previous career starts (81%)
12/16: Won by either a February or March foal (75%)
10/16: Won their last race (63%)
..9/16: Won at 9/2 or shorter (56%)
..8/16: Unplaced favourites (50%)
..7/16: Ran at Royal Ascot in their last race (44%)
..6/14: Winners won over the same distance (43%)
..6/16: Trained by Richard Hannon (38%)
..5/14: Winners had already won on the going (36%)
..5/16: Winning favourites (31%)
..4/14: Winning favourites (29%)
..2/16: Ridden by Paul Hanagan (13%)
..1/14: Won a at the same level (7%)
..1/14: Winners had previously won at the course (7%)
..1/16: Winners that came from stall 1 (6%)

Frankie Dettori has ridden 4 winners in the race
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2. Over the past 14 years 16/1 has been the highest winning SP and 7/4 has been the lowest.
Cardsharp (8/1) won the race in 2017

TIMEFORM ANALYST'S VERDICT

Legend Of War's participation in the Coventry would have made for an even more compelling race, disappointing that he missed it due to a minor infection, but he can build on his huge debut performance to maintain his unbeaten record here at the expense of another highly talented sort in Advertise. Konchek should relish this trip and shouldn't be completely dismissed.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: ADVERTISE 15/8 (WINNER)  2nd: VAN BEETHOVEN 11/2  3rd: SPORTING CHANCE 25/1

*****

3.00 Newmarket: Bet365 Handicap (Class 2) 6f

12/12: Didn’t win last time out (100%)
12/12: Raced in the last 4 weeks (100%)
12/12: Had 3 or 4 previous runs that season (100%)
12/12: Won no more than 3 times before (100%)
10/12: Won over 6f before (83%)
..9/12: Returned 9/1 or bigger (75%)
..9/12: Carried 8st 12lbs or less (75%)
..9/12: Came from a double-figure stall (75%)
..9/12: Winning distance – 1 length or less (75%)
..8/12: Unplaced favourites (67%)
..7/12: Finished unplaced last time out (58%)
..3/12: Trained by Andrew Balding (25%)
..3/12: Ridden by David Probert (25%)
..0/12: Winning favourites (0%)


Ekhiyaar (13/2) won the race in 2017

TIMEFORM ANALYST'S VERDICT

Several to consider but JAWWAAL and Tribal Quest stand out from both a handicapping and potential point of view. The latter isn't passed over lightly but Jawwaal was arguably unlucky not to prevail in the big York handicap won by Encrypted and, therefore, is potentially well treated off the same mark. Encrypted should again be involved, while the Hannon duo, Buridan and Embour, also merit respect.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: FOXTROT LADY 10/1 (WINNER)  2nd: KIMIFIVE 33/1  3rd: EMBOUR 12/1

*****

This is a race named after Alexandra Of Denmark who became the Princess Of Wales in 1863.

3.35 Newmarket: Princess Of Wales's Arqana Racing Club Stakes (Group 2) 1m4f

14/16: Aged 4yo or older (4yos have won 8 of last 11) (88%)
14/16: Had 2 or more runs that season (88%)
14/16: Previously won over at least 1m4f (88%)
13/16: Winners from stall 5 or lower (81%)
11/14: Winners had already won over the same distance (79%)
11/16: Won at 8/1 or shorter (69%)
11/16: Won a Group 1 or 2 race before (69%)
10/16: Unplaced in their previous race (63%)
..8/14: Winners had previously won at the course (57%)
..9/16: Favourites that were placed (56%)
..7/14: Won on the going (50%)
..8/16: Ran at Royal Ascot in their previous race (50%)
..5/14: Winners already won a race at the same level or higher (36%)
..5/16: Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won it 9 times in total) (31%)
..4/16: Ridden by Ryan Moore (25%)
..3/16: Won by trainer Mark Johnston (19%)
..2/14: Top rated horse (14%)
..1/14: Favourite has won (7%)


25/1 was the highest winning SP and 2/1 the lowest in the last 14 years, the average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
Big Orange won the race in 2015 & 2016
Hawkbill (7/2) won the race in 2017

TIMEFORM ANALYST'S VERDICT

MIRAGE DANCER hasn’t seen to best effect at Royal Ascot, and given he has the potential to rate higher still, he’s taken to enhance Sir Michael Stoute's excellent record in this race. Barsanti is a thoroughly likeable sort who should continue to give a good account of himself, while Best Solution will find things a bit easier back in Group 2 company.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st; DURETTO 25/1 (finished 3rd beaten half a length)  2nd: BARSANTI 9/2  3rd: BEST SOLUTION 8/1 (WINNER)

*****

  Today's Pacafi: click here

REMEMBER!

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 Disclaimer
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