Pacafi (18 July 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

  WICKLOW BRAVE 6.30 Killarney at 4/6. 1pt win advised

Rose Hotel (Q.R.) Race (possible overweight 2lb) (1m6f)

 .

Pedigree: E11,000 Y, E43,000 3yo; first foal; dam 1m4f winner, half-sister to 1m6f Flat/2m and 2m4f hurdle winner Levitator out of French 1m4f Group 3 winning half-sister to 1m4f Listed winner Tailfeather & very smart 2m-2m5f hurdle/chase winner Upgrade

THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE

Optimum Ground: Good to soft (9) 
Optimum Distance: 1m6f (10)
Jockey Booking: Patrick Mullins (10) 2lbs overweight.
Trainer Form: NH 12-21 for 57% (+20.43) (10) 
OR & RPR: 108 & 93 (10)
The Racing Horse Composite: 49/50

Main danger: Daybreak Boy 11/2
(Rated 10lbs inferior but concedes 5lbs to the Pacafi)

Holds all the aces

Winner of the 2016 Irish St Leger on the Flat and the 2017 Punchestown Champion Hurdle over obstacles, Wicklow Brave appears to hold all the aces in this 14-furlong event, with record-breaking amateur-jockey Patrick Mullins in the saddle. He was last seen finishing second in the Grade 3 Grimes Hurdle at the start of the month, in which the re-opposing Ivanovich Gorbatov finished well down the field for Joseph O'Brien.

Deemed good enough to compete in a Group 2

He is now a 9yo but still deemed good enough to race against Stradivarius at 12/1 when seventh of 8 on his latest flat outing in the Group 2 Mansion Bet Yorkshire Cup at York over 1m 6f on good to firm ground in May. He retains an entry in a Group 3 in August at Leopardstown over 1m4f.

Too much class for his rivals

Wicklow Brave is on a long losing run which is disappointing for such a talented individual but his overall form, which includes Grade 1 victories over timber and just failing to concede Rekindling a stone in a Group 2 at the Curragh, puts him in the driving seat here. This really looks likes a confidence booster and he should have too much class for his rivals on this occasion. We were fortunate to have met this horse last November when he ran a good race despite being keen early in the 2017 Melbourne Cup but still finished well over 2m on good ground but was given too much too do by an inexperienced jockey.

Optimum ground

He has won three times from 1m 6f to 2m on yielding and heavy ground on the Flat and one would imagine that would be his optimum ground but we know he handles good ground very well and ran some fantastic races on it. He has won hurdles and NHF races on good ground.

Patrick Mullins

Jockey Patrick Mullins (28) became the winning-most amateur rider of all time as he overtook the record of 545 winners set by Ted Walsh with victory aboard Queens Boulevard in the Blind Tiger Flat race at Sligo. Afterwards he said: "That's fantastic and it's something quite cool. Obviously I couldn't have done it without standing on what my parents have built in Closutton and on what my grandparents built in Duninga before that. It would be nice to get to a thousand. It's taken me 12 years to get this far so if I rode till I was 40 - my father did that - I might do it." The jockey is four from nine when riding Wicklow Brave so knows him particularly well, he also has good statistics in that he has a 38% striker-rate when riding one runner at a flat meeting and his father has won this race twice in the last seven years. Willie Mullins has his horses in exceptional form.

Of his rivals

Ivanovich Gorbatov was a long way behind the selection in that recent run over timber at Tipperary and it's a long time since he won the Triumph Hurdle, his last victory. Daybreak Boy was beaten a long way in the Ascot Stakes and it's difficult to see him having the pace to beat the selection, especially conceding weight, while Peregrine Run, though in superb form over fences, will probably find the trip on the short side in this ground.

Timeform Analyst's View

Wicklow Brave is probably not the force of old nowadays but this still represents an excellent opportunity for him to resume winning ways. Useful-jumper Peregrine Run is feared most on his belated Flat bow.

Value

If the Pacafi retains a large part of his ability the 4/6 must be value, we imagine him starting at odds of less than 8/15 especially given the trainer's form! Willie Mullins told us: "He was a bit disappointing at Tipperary but the conditions of the Killarney race suit him and we're hoping for better from him."

The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable.

12  Wicklow Brave       1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.74   S/R  58%
11  Altra Vita          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.94   S/R  55% 
10  Inessa              1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.94   S/R  60%
 9  Wissahickon         3.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.14   S/R  55%
 8  Fox Coach           2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.14   S/R  63%
 7  Herculean           1.50  WIN   1.00  +0.50  +4.14   S/R  71%
 6  Thriving            2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +3.64   S/R  67%  
 5  Ballydun Oscar      1.67  WIN   2.00  +1.34  +2.54   S/R  60%
 4  Alsimsaam           2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.20   S/R  50%
 3  Altra Vita          1.80  WIN   2.00  +1.60  +2.20   S/R  67% 
 2  Construct (R4)      2.37  WIN   2.00  +2.60  +0.60   S/R  50%
 1  Forever Together    1.67  LOSE  2.00  -2.00  -2.00   S/R   0%

July SELECTIONS: 12  WIN: 7  LOSE: 5  S/R: 58%  PROFIT: +2.74pts

(211L11128131)       First or second: 75%

21  Moyassar            2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.49   S/R  43%
20  Saxon Warrior       2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.49   S/R  45%
19  Sporting Chance     2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.49   S/R  47%
18  Kings Inn (E/W)     8.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +4.49   S/R  50%
17  Lotus Pond          1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  +5.59   S/R  53%
16  Caius Marcius       2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +4.92   S/R  50%
15  Cracksman           1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.92   S/R  53%
14  Battaash            3.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +6.92   S/R  57%
13  Settie Hill         1.83  WIN   1.00  +0.83  +7.92   S/R  62%
12  Sea Of Class        1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +7.09   S/R  58%
11  New Winds           1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +6.37   S/R  55%
10  Wufud               2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.46   S/R  50%
 9  Mutafani            1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +6.46   S/R  56%
 8  Eyehaveagoodidea    1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.89   S/R  50%
 7  Aim Of Artemis      2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +6.89   S/R  57%
 6  Move Swiftly        2.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.79   S/R  50%
 5  Red Mist (R4)       1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.73  +6.79   S/R  60%
 4  Haul Away (R4)      1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.56  +6.06   S/R  50%
 3  Dream Today         1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.50   S/R  33%
 2  Masar (+saver)     17.00  WIN   1.00  +7.50  +6.50   S/R  50%
 1  Settie Hill         1.44  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.00   S/R   0%

June SELECTIONS: 21  WIN: 9  LOSE: 12  S/R: 43%  PROFIT: +1.49pts

(U12113131411122217232)       First or second: 71.43%

NOTE: We secured 22/1 and 25/1 about Masar to 1pt win stakes but only recorded 16/1 to a 1/2pt stake. This seriously undervalues our profit for June but we know two of our members only secured 16/1. We would rather understate our performance. On this point our prices are neither best nor Betfair prices, we only nominate when the prices that are genuinely available, our members should be getting better prices so better profits!

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *