2018 Irish Oaks

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Irish Oaks is a Group 1 run over a distance of 1m4f for 3yo filles and we have all the trends and betting advice to find the winner. In recent years horses that ran in the Epsom Oaks previously have gone well, with six of the last 15 Epsom winners going onto follow-up in the Irish version the following month – including 12 months ago when the classy Enable landed both races.

O'BRIEN SADDLED RUNNER-UP IN EACH OF IRISH CLASSICS SO FAR - MORE OF THE SAME?

Champion trainer Aidan O’Brien will bid to win his first Irish Classic of the 2018 season on Saturday as Royal Ascot winner Magic Wand heads his entries for the Group 1 Darley Irish Oaks. O’Brien has saddled the runner-up in each of the three Irish Classic’s at the Curragh so far this year but will be attempting to win the Darley Irish Oaks for a record equalling sixth time with a strong team likely to go forward from his powerful Ballydoyle stable.“

Magic Wand has come out of Ascot well and we’ve been pleased with her since then,” O’Brien said. “She is ready to go to the Curragh for the Irish Oaks and the plan is that Bye Bye Baby and Forever Together will also run there. We also have September in the race and she has been training well following a muscle problem. We’ll make a decision on whether or not she’ll run later in the week but she is being trained with the Irish Oaks in mind.”

IN GOOD FORM AND PLEASED US - WILLIAM HAGGAS

The British challenge is headed by Sea Of Class, a daughter of Sea The Stars, who has won two Listed races this season for trainer William Haggas. The trainer told us: "Sea Of Class is in good form, we are very happy with her and she pleased us at Newmarket last week. She’s ready to go and hopefully we can get her there in one piece. It will be a tough race but we are looking forward to it and we think that a mile and a half is the trip that she wants now and the Curragh should suit. She is out a Hernando mare and there is plenty of stamina in the family but she has got speed as well so we are excited. James Doyle has ridden her on all three starts and we are hoping that he’ll be over on Saturday."

SEA OF CLASS TO WIN IRISH OAKS

UK-trained fillies have an excellent record in this race and we take Sea Of Class to improve past Magic Wand.Surprisingly beaten over a mile on her debut, she put that behind her when comfortably landing a Newbury Listed contest over 1m2f then repeated that performance last month where she looked a filly of the highest quality. She had Princess Yaiza almost 3l back in third in the latter event and Gavin Cromwell's filly, who was receiving 3lb, had finished 4l behind Magic Wand in the Cheshire Oaks when Forever Together was half-a-length in front of her. The latter went on to land the Oaks at Epsom with Magic Wand well beaten in fourth though obviously not at her best as she proved with a comprehensive victory in the Ribblesdale. The 1-2-3 of this race looks predetermined and we have backed Sea Of Class with a stake-saver on Magic Wand. But here are the trends:

5.30 Curragh: 2018 Irish Oaks

14/15: Raced within the last 6 weeks (93%)
13/15: Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (87%)
12/15: Came from the top 3 in the betting (75%)
11/15: Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting (73%)
10/15: Won between 1-2 times before (67%)
10/15: Won last time out (67%)
..9/15: Placed favourites (60%)
..9/15: Won over 1m4f before (60%)
..8/15: Ran in the Epsom Oaks last time out (53%)
..7/15: Winning distance, 3 lengths or more (47%)
..7/15: Won by a UK-based trainer (47%)
..6/15: Had won a Group One before (40%)
..6/15: Winning favourites (40%)
..5/15: Trained by Aidan O’Brien(33%)
..5/15: Won the Epsom Oaks last time out (33%)
..3/15: Ridden by Frankie Dettori (20%)


The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 9/2

RECENT IRISH OAKS WINNERS

2017 – ENABLE (2/5 fav)
2016 – SEVENTH HEAVEN (14/1)
2015 – COVERT LOVE (7/1)
2014 – BRACELET (10/1)
2013 – CHICQUITA (9/2)
2012 – GREAT HEAVENS (5/4 fav)
2011 – BLUE BUNTING (5/2)
2010 – SNOW FAIRY (7/2)
2009 – SARISKA (Evs fav)
2008 – MOONSTONE (2/1 fav)
2007 – PEEPING FAWN (3/1)
2006 – ALEXANDROVA (8/15 fav)
2005 – SHAWANDA (9/2)
2004 – OUIJA BOARD (4/7 fav)
2003 – VINTAGE TIPPLE (12/1)

TIMEFORM ANALYST'S VERDICT

Epsom Oaks winner Forever Together will relish the return to this trip fitted with cheekpieces and can get back on track and complete the double. Stablemate Magic Wand was impressive in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot and looks set for a big run against her old rival. Sea of Class is a solid contender up in trip after a couple of impressive Newbury wins.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: SEA OF CLASS 11/4 (WINNER)  2nd: MAGIC WAND 6/4  3rd: FOREVER TOGETHER 4/1 (2nd)

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