The Racing Horse has just written another piece for BETTING INSIDERS where we revisit and update the form and the profiles of Richard Hughes and Charlie Appleby, this will be published in the August Edition, so look out for that.
The Pacafi won as expected yesterday but our nervousness about jockeyship and Joshua Bryan was on show and had we lost the race it would have been upsetting. When we have backed the best horse in the race but random factors spike us, it hurts but, if we are beaten by a better horse much less so and we actually philosophical about it. Please be assured a losing bet is NOT allowed to affect our next piece of advice and our record shows that!
Excellent ride by David Egan on System Bet
To our credit we got back on the Saeed AW System and both his horses running well with Piece Of History winning at 9/4. Some members could only get 2s and 15/8 but we had signalled our intent the day before the race and the 9/4 was available for a long period. By the way we thought David Egan gave an excellent performance as the horse was fighting him early and desperate for cover from that wide draw.
The onus is on the member...
We received a terse email from Dave P who said he could not get 15/8 about Piece Of History because he works! We suggested our advice is not for him and refunded him this month's subscription but just a few words about prices without sounding patronising. Those who have followed us for a period of time, know we believe that mathematics are the governing force of betting. Our personal profits and prices shown and logged are neither the best prices nor the exchange prices or Betfair SP so the onus is always on the member to secure the very best price if he or she is going to make a profit! Members who do not show better figures than the ones logged at The Racing Horse are doing something wrong and need to think about that!
Value is everything - we must be ready to take it!
We have repeated this many times so excuse this once more but all sporting outcomes are subject to inherent randomness and that is why we need to ACCEPT mathematics and probability and their importance. Anybody can pick a winner but if our assessment or advice of an outcome probability is better than those offered by the bookmaker or rival on the exchanges we will have secured positive expectations and long-term profits. Finding perceived value is so difficult for most bettors but we price up our own tissues which gives us our chance.
Finally on this topic, we do not tip, we share our betting advice. The information received by our members represent our primary source of income and the members are our scrutineers! Our website runs at a loss, we make no money from subscriptions and have no adverts or affiliations. The website exists because I enjoy sharing my thoughts but also to air my thoughts out loud, if our rationale is not sound, the written word will expose it!
The Pacafi will not suit the vast majority of bettors and the reason why we share our micro-systems and racing trends which all make profit for just 33p per day.
What about Mokhles I hear you asking?
Saeed bin Suroor has a runner today but we are NOT backing Mokhles 2.50 Lingfield. The trainer is travelling far and wide to find appropriate opportunities for his ordinary bunch of 3yos. He looks a steady improver on each of three novice/maiden starts and a good second to Hibernicus last time, the form having received a major franking when the winner went on to romp home at Pontefract by a dozen lengths. It's hard to know how he'll take to a large field including some experienced handicappers around here but he''ll be hard to beat if that latest form is taken literally. We were thinking about the 9/2 available but the price has gone and as we go to post he trades at 3/1 generally (09.11). If this one wins then apologies in advance to our members who are following this system. This is probably one of those times where if we were offered 9/2 now we would take it so this proves we have got into a pickle with this horse!
The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable.
16 Advanced Virgo 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +4.94 S/R 63% 15 Major Partnership 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +4.22 S/R 60% 14 Raymond Tusk 2.75 WIN 1.00 +1.75 +3.49 S/R 58% 13 Hazapour 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.74 S/R 54% 12 Wicklow Brave 1.80 WIN 1.00 +0.80 +2.74 S/R 58% 11 Altra Vita 1.80 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.94 S/R 55% 10 Inessa 1.80 WIN 1.00 +0.80 +2.94 S/R 60% 9 Wissahickon 3.75 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.14 S/R 55% 8 Fox Coach 2.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +3.14 S/R 63% 7 Herculean 1.50 WIN 1.00 +0.50 +4.14 S/R 71% 6 Thriving 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +3.64 S/R 67% 5 Ballydun Oscar 1.67 WIN 2.00 +1.34 +2.54 S/R 60% 4 Alsimsaam 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.20 S/R 50% 3 Altra Vita 1.80 WIN 2.00 +1.60 +2.20 S/R 67% 2 Construct (R4) 2.37 WIN 2.00 +2.60 +0.60 S/R 50% 1 Forever Together 1.67 LOSE 2.00 -2.00 -2.00 S/R 0%
July SELECTIONS: 16 WIN: 10 LOSE: 6 S/R: 63% PROFIT: +4.94pts
(211L111281313111) First or second: 75%
Today's Pacafi: click here
Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.
The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.