Glorious Goodwood Racing Trends (Day 1)

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The Racing Horse has all the racing trends for the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting where jockeyship will be crucial. We have posted the comments of Richard Hughes which illustrates the problems this unique course poses to jockeys.

Richard Hughes says: "Goodwood can be a tricky track to ride. The thing about the place for a jockey is that you have to believe in yourself, even when things aren't going great. You might not get a run on one horse, but you have to have the balls to ride the next race the same way. If you try to make the gaps happen, they won't come. If you let them happen, they do come. It's all about confidence and sticking to your plan. What helps is getting a winner early in the week – but that's not easy in races run over 7f and 1m. In big fields, it's a huge advantage to be drawn high. So many of the races over these trips have lots of runners and you are bound to be on a few drawn low and therefore wide on the track. At the start of the week you have to make a conscious decision either to push forward or miss the kick and go up the inner."

He continues: "Personally, I've tried more than enough times to break fast from an outside draw and get over to the rail. What I've learnt is that by doing that you always end up going too quick and use up too much horse too soon in the race. If you drop your horse in, you are giving the others a head start and are always in danger of being blocked in down the straight, but I think it's the chance you have to take. The problem with a low draw is not just that you are wide. The stalls are positioned at a part of the hill that puts those on the rail higher up than those on the outside. Because of that camber, horses drawn low have to climb much more of the hill than horses drawn on the rail, who pretty much get to run level. As the stalls are, if you like, positioned sideways, a lot of horses also slip coming out of the gates."

Read Richard Hughes view of this unique track here

 This meeting starts on Tuesday 31st July to Saturday 4th August. We will post our betting advice at 6pm Monday evening. First, let's check out some interesting favourite figures.

NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

2yo:    44-99  for 44%  (+0.12)      3-20  for 15%  (-7.92)
3yo:    36-79  for 46%  (+4.27)     47-152 for 31%  (-4.13)
4yo+:   21-54  for 39%  (-0.46)     51-167 for 31%  (-0.87)
Total: 101-232 for 44%  (+3.92)    101-339 for 30% (-12.92)

And now for the trends...

1.50 Goodwood: Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap (Class 2) 1m1f119y

15/16: Aged 4 or 5yo (94%)
15/16: Won over at least 1m2f before (94%)
14/16: Had 4 or more previous runs that season (88%)
14/16: Won at least 3 times already during their career (88%)
13/16: Carried 8st 11lbs or more (81%)
..9/12: Winners came from stalls 9 or higher (75%)
11/16: Returned 12/1 or shorter (69%)
11/16: Ran at Goodwood before (69%)
11/16: Unplaced last time out (69%)
..8/12: Winners came from a double-figure stall (67%)
10/16: Unplaced favourites (63%)
10/16: Returned a double-figure price (63%)
..5/16: Trained by Mark Johnston (31%)
..3/16: Won their last race (19%)
..2/16: Trained by Mick Channon (13%)
..2/16: Winning favourites (1 co-fav) (13%)

Fabricate at 20/1 won this race 12 months ago

TIMEFORM

AFAAK was really strong at the finish when runner-up in the Royal Hunt Cup last month, and on that evidence, this trip will unlock more, so the case for him is a compelling one from a reasonable draw. Dark Red has previous in this race and he arrives on the back of a career best, with Medrano interesting at longer odds.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: ORIGINAL CHOICE 20/1 (3rd)  SILVER LINE 9/1  RAINBOW REBEL 8/1 

Original Choice quickened well to land a good prize at Wetherby over 1m in May. Sandown run was a bit flat, but now up in trip and rain-softened ground will suit. The price is particularly good and must start shorter! Double figure draw would have helped us. William Haggas has a strike-rate of 23% with horses running in races between 7f and 10f since the start of the 2013 season.

***

2.25 Goodwood: Qatar Vintage Stakes (Group 2) 7f

15/16: Had won over 6f or 7f before (94%)
15/16: Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting (94%)
15/16: Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (94%)
13/16: Had 2 or 3 previous career runs (81%)
12/16: Won last time out (75%)
11/16: Placed favourites (69%(
10/16: Winning favourites (63%)
10/16: Won by a March or later foal (63%)
..8/16: Ran at either Newmarket (5) or Ascot (2) last time out (50%)
..7/16: Had won 2 previous races (44%)
..4/16: Had run at Goodwood before (25%)
..4/16: Trained by Richard Hannon (25%)
..3/16: Ridden by Frankie Dettori (19%)

Expert Eye (7/4 fav) won the race 12 months ago

TIMEFORM

DARK VISION already looks a bargain purchase after his impressive wins at Yarmouth and York, and it's worth noting that Mark Johnston traditionally aims his best 2yos at this race. The form of Confiding's debut win at Newbury couldn't have worked out any better and his yard has a good line with a few of these through July Stakes winner Advertise. Any rain would make Cosmic Law a big player.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: DARK VISION 6/1 (WINNER)  2nd: BURG 22/1  3rd: DROGON 17/2 

Dark Vision was a cheap purchase given pedigree, but made a winning start in 6-runner minor event at Yarmouth (6f) before following up impressively at York. Will go on improving. Burg at 22/1 looks a huge price and make the frame if not win!

***

3.00 Goodwood: Qatar Lennox Stakes (Group 2) 7f

16/16: Won at least 2 times before (100%)
....8/9: Winners came from stalls 7 or lower (89%)
14/16: Returned 7/1 or shorter (88%)
14/16: Had 2 or more previous runs already that season (88%)
13/16: Won over 7f before (81%)
13/16: Previous Group Race winners (81%)
12/16: Previously won a Group 2 or 3 (75%)
10/16: Aged 3 or 4yo (63%)
10/16: Ran at Goodwood before (63%)
..7/16: Ran at Ascot last time out (44%)
....3/7: Winners came from stall 5 (43%)
..6/16: Winning favourites (38%)
..3/16: Trained by Richard Hannon (19%)


Breton Rock (50/1) won the race 12 months ago
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TIMEFORM

A really competitive renewal with little separating a number on form. Last year's third Suedois gets the nod on the back of a fine effort in the Summer Mile at Ascot recently but Tip Two Win will be a massive threat if recapturing anything like his 2000 Guineas form, while Sir Dancealot arrives at the very top of his game. Emmaus is another fascinating contender but he is unproven on fast ground.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: SIR DANCEALOT 11/2 (WINNER)  2nd: D'BAI 10/1  3rd: HERE COMES WHEN 16/1

Sir Dancealot ticks all of our boxes and trainer form not an issue (June was good). As good as ever when deservedly winning first pattern race when proving length too strong for So Beloved in Group 3 Criterion at Newmarket last month. Fine fourth in July Cup there since. Has a favourites chance.

***

3.35 Goodwood: Qatar Goodwood Stakes Cup (Group 1) 2m

14/14: Winners had raced in the last 45 days (100%)
10/11: Winners came from stall 10 or lower (91%)
14/16: Placed last time out (88%)
12/16: Aged 5yo or older (75%)
12/16: Had 2 or more runs already that season (75%)
12/16: Won a Group 1 or 2 race before (75%)
10/16: Won over at least 2m before (63%)
..9/16: Ran at Ascot last time out (56%)
..9/16: Returned 7/2 or shorter (56%)
..9/16: Ran at Goodwood before (56%)
..8/16: Winning favourites (50%)
..8/16: Won their previous race (50%)
..4/16: Won by a Godolphin-owned horse (25%)
..5/21: Won by a previous winner of the race (24%)
..2/16: Ridden by Frankie Dettori (13%)
..2/16: Trained by Aidan O’Brien (13%)
..2/16: Trained by Michael Bell (13%)

Big Orange won the race in 2015 and 2016
Stradivarius (6/1) won the race in 2017

The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

TIMEFORM

A very good chance this will develop into a straight fight between Gold Cup 1-3 Stradivarius and and Torcedor. The former hasn't looked back since taking this race 12 months ago and can set himself up for a possible tilt at the £1 million stayers' bonus at York next month by stretching his unbeaten record this year to three

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: STRADIVARIUS 4/5 (WINNER)  2nd: TORCEDOR 9/2 (2nd)  3rd: IDAHO 10/1 (3rd)

The Exacta paid £3.80, the CSF paid £3.10 and the Trifecta paid £11.

Stradivarius is an attractive colt and a high-class performer. Has won a handicap at Beverley, Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot and Goodwood Cup in 2017. Successful in both starts this season in Yorkshire Cup at York (by 3 lengths from Desert Skyline) and posting career-best effort when following up in 9-runner Gold Cup at Royal Ascot, going with enthusiasm and proving game when beating Vazirabad by ¾ length (finished lame/lost shoe right hind). He is clearly effective from 1¾m-2½m and acts on Tapeta, soft and good to firm going. Often travels strongly and usually responds generously to pressure.

*****

  Today's Pacafi: click here

REMEMBER!

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

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