Wolverhampton AW (30 July 2018)

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The Racing Horse loves all things percentages and we have pages and pages of up-to-date numbers and we would like to share some of them with our members when time prevails. At Wolverhampton today the top five jockeys are not riding but tomorrow Oisin Murphy has a full book of rides and he will have a winner. He is the leading jockey at the course for 2018 and has recorded 20 wins from 80 rides for 25% and a level-stake profit of +1.34pts.

Here are his rides with prices at 20.21 Sunday : 5.10 Implicit at 7/4 (general) 5.45 Rocking Roy at 4/9 (Bet365 and SkyBet) 6.15 Nibras Again at 16/1 (general) 6.50 Counter Spirit at 6/1 (general) 7.25 Glenglade at 2/1 (general) 8.00 Gorham's Cave at 12/1 (Betfair and Paddy Power) and 8.30 Oskeman at 8/1 (Bet365 and BetVictor). The two he rides for Archie Watson are very interesting, as this trainer is currently joint-fourth best at the track this year though carries the highest strike-rate. William Haggas is third best but he does not have any runners tomorrow. Four of the top five have runners tomorrow, they are:

Michael Appleby:  11 winners from 92 runners for 12%  (-0.70)
Tom Dascombe:     10 winners from 43 runners for 23% (+20.72)
Hugo Palmer:       7 winners from 22 runners for 32%  (+4.84)
Archie Watson:     7 winners from 22 runners for 32%  (+4.75)

Given the nature of our Pacafi we are always mindful of how the favourites perform at the different courses and we are continually surprised at what they throw up. Below we show the various age groups in both non-handicap and handicap categories over the last five years:

NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

2yo:   106-258 for 41%  (-38.77)     36-104 for 35%  (+2.41)
3yo:   183-384 for 48%  (-33.69)    244-659 for 37%  (-3.41)
4yo+:   89-186 for 48%   (+5.86)   438-1343 for 33% (-56.62)
Total: 378-828 for 46%  (-66.59)   718-2106 for 34% (-57.62)

Course Map

Wolverhampton racecourse is a left handed all-weather course. They have now become the first UK racecourse to use a Tapeta racing surface, with the first meeting on Tapeta being held on the 11th August 2014. The course is only a mile all the way round and its oval shape means that it is very similar in configuration to most US racetracks. Wolverhampton is tight with a short straight and like most of the all-weather tracks tends to suit horses that race handy just off the pace. As a general rule we tend not to back front-runners at this course.

In this piece we have named Oisin Murphy and his seven rides plus four trainers who are likely to have runners. Our best betting advice is to look closely at those. We note Murphy rides three worthy favourites and Implicit 7/4, Rockin Roy 2/5 and Glenglade 2/1 and a win double seems a minimum/likely but the treble would pay £11.55 for a £1. One question - is there value in the treble? We do not believe so but the information contained within this piece must contain value.

We have a template of all six of the AW tracks and with the exception of prices, have taken the above information from it. We also have many Turf courses covered and it is a starting point, knowing the preferences of owners, trainers and jockeys can only assist in one's betting. We genuinely believe our betting is better for taking time to understand the nature of the racecourse and who targets and who excels.

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

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