TAUNTON Racecourse Template (Wednesday 24 April 2024)
April 23rd, 2024
The Racing Horse offers our Taunton Racecourse Template for Thursday 29 February 2024. There is a [...]
Pacafi (2 August 2018)
Posted by in Blog
Leave a comment
|
Royal Plaza 2.00 Stratford at 8/11Priority SMS Selling Hurdle (2m½f)Pedigree: £13,000 F; sixth foal; brother to bumper/2m-2m5f hurdle/smart chase winner Royal Regatta, half-brother to smart 2m4f-2m5f hurdle/chase winner Three Musketeers; dam unraced half-sister to 2m3f-2m7f chase winner Joe Deane, family of Strong FlowTHE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE Optimum Ground: Good to soft (10) Optimum Distance: 2m3f (9) Jockey Booking: Richard Johnson (10) Trainer Form: 6-26 for 23% (10) OR & RPR: 125 & 140 (10) The Racing Horse Composite: 49/50 Main danger: Lets Sway Impressive and in formRoyal Plaza was an impressive winner over fences two starts ago and he was not disgraced when chasing home a useful rival last time out so it is a surprise to see him running in a seller. He is lightly raced relatively speaking but this 7yo gelding has only to beat a 4yo filly.Optimum distanceWe are duty bound to say that a sharp 2m is not our Pacafi's optimum distance and this is his first start over hurdles since March 2017, but his 5/2 and second of 4 in a handicap chase at this course over 2m1f just 30 days ago racing with enthusiasm stands him in good stead and he is able to lead or race handy. Jockey Richard Johnson will be aware that main danger Let's Sway (a reknown front-runner) might try and nick it from the front so he must not give that filly daylight!Johnson v HammondRichard Johnson's strike rate at Stratford since the start of the 2013/14 season is 24% and when he rides favourites in the same time frame he scores at 39%. His rival jockey in this race is Charlie Hammond and he claims 5lbs and this season figures show 5-60 for 8%, Johnson records 44-253 for 17lbs and the 5lbs claim advantage becomes a minus.Murphy v Barfoot-SauntTrainer Olly Murphy has his horses in decent form and July shows him 6 winners from 26 runners for a 23% strike-rate and a small level-stake loss of -2.55pts. This is in stark contrast to the trainer of our main danger who is Tracey Barfoot-Saunt who has recorded just 1 winner since May 2006. Since April 2014 she is 1-52 for 2% for -37pts.Of his rivalsLet's Sway has run poorly in her last two starts after looking quite promising when scoring at Wincanton. Dove Mountain was well beaten when runner-up in this last year and was beaten in a Lingfield seller on the Flat last month while Sky of Stars has shown little since two handicap victories last summer.TimeformRoyal Plaza stands out on form back over hurdles and dropped into a seller and could be hard to beat. The form of Let's Sway's third over C&D last time has worked out and she is the obvious danger down in class.ValueBetting in Selling Hurdles Class 5 is normally fraught with danger and accepting our Pacafi is running over a sharp 2m and not our optimum trip we are reliant on jockeyship. Our main danger will attempt to slip us and Richard Johnson will be aware that he must keep tabs on the front-runner! What's that got to with value? The ground is good to soft so not lightning fast and there are hurdles to be jumped but we have found it hard to be certain of perceived value. What is clear is the percentage strike-rates of the two main trainers in this race, and the reason why we set aside the optimum distance concern! We would have taken 4/6 and still considered that price value... |
The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable.
3 Battaash 2.25 WIN 1.00 +1.25 +3.64 S/R 100% 2 Royal Plaza 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +2.39 S/R 100% 1 Star Shield 2.67 WIN 1.00 +1.67 +1.67 S/R 100%
August SELECTIONS: 3 WIN: 3 LOSE: 0 S/R: 100% PROFIT: +3.64pts
(111) First or second: 100.00%
19 Queen Medb 1.80 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.88 S/R 63% 18 L'Explora 1.44 WIN 1.00 +0.44 +6.88 S/R 67% 17 Kuwait Station 2.50 WIN 1.00 +1.50 +6.44 S/R 65% 16 Advanced Virgo 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +4.94 S/R 63% 15 Major Partnership 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +4.22 S/R 60% 14 Raymond Tusk 2.75 WIN 1.00 +1.75 +3.49 S/R 58% 13 Hazapour 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.74 S/R 54% 12 Wicklow Brave 1.80 WIN 1.00 +0.80 +2.74 S/R 58% 11 Altra Vita 1.80 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.94 S/R 55% 10 Inessa 1.80 WIN 1.00 +0.80 +2.94 S/R 60% 9 Wissahickon 3.75 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.14 S/R 55% 8 Fox Coach 2.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +3.14 S/R 63% 7 Herculean 1.50 WIN 1.00 +0.50 +4.14 S/R 71% 6 Thriving 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +3.64 S/R 67% 5 Ballydun Oscar 1.67 WIN 2.00 +1.34 +2.54 S/R 60% 4 Alsimsaam 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.20 S/R 50% 3 Altra Vita 1.80 WIN 2.00 +1.60 +2.20 S/R 67% 2 Construct (R4) 2.37 WIN 2.00 +2.60 +0.60 S/R 50% 1 Forever Together 1.67 LOSE 2.00 -2.00 -2.00 S/R 0%
July SELECTIONS: 19 WIN: 12 LOSE: 7 S/R: 63% PROFIT: +5.88pts
(211L111281313111112) First or second: 78.95%
21 Moyassar 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.49 S/R 43% 20 Saxon Warrior 2.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.49 S/R 45% 19 Sporting Chance 2.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +3.49 S/R 47% 18 Kings Inn (E/W) 8.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +4.49 S/R 50% 17 Lotus Pond 1.67 WIN 1.00 +0.67 +5.59 S/R 53% 16 Caius Marcius 2.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +4.92 S/R 50% 15 Cracksman 1.80 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.92 S/R 53% 14 Battaash 3.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +6.92 S/R 57% 13 Settie Hill 1.83 WIN 1.00 +0.83 +7.92 S/R 62% 12 Sea Of Class 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +7.09 S/R 58% 11 New Winds 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.91 +6.37 S/R 55% 10 Wufud 2.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.46 S/R 50% 9 Mutafani 1.57 WIN 1.00 +0.57 +6.46 S/R 56% 8 Eyehaveagoodidea 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.89 S/R 50% 7 Aim Of Artemis 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +6.89 S/R 57% 6 Move Swiftly 2.75 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.79 S/R 50% 5 Red Mist (R4) 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.73 +6.79 S/R 60% 4 Haul Away (R4) 1.62 WIN 1.00 +0.56 +6.06 S/R 50% 3 Dream Today 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.50 S/R 33% 2 Masar (+saver) 17.00 WIN 1.00 +7.50 +6.50 S/R 50% 1 Settie Hill 1.44 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 S/R 0%
June SELECTIONS: 21 WIN: 9 LOSE: 12 S/R: 43% PROFIT: +1.49pts
(U12113131411122217232) First or second: 71.43%
NOTE: We secured 22/1 and 25/1 about Masar to 1pt win stakes but only recorded 16/1 to a 1/2pt stake. This seriously undervalues our profit for June but we know two of our members only secured 16/1. We would rather understate our performance. On this point our prices are neither best nor Betfair prices, we only nominate when the prices that are genuinely available, our members should be getting better prices so better profits!
DisclaimerOur information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose. |