Glorious Goodwood Racing Trends (Day 4)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Day 3 was another excellent day for The Racing Horse with two 5/1 winners from four selections putting us further ahead for the 5-day meeting. From 12 selections we have now found 5 winners for a 42% strike-rate at some excellent prices at 6/1, 11/2, 4/5, 5/1 and 5/1 and recorded a 20/1 third place. Going into Friday we are already +15.30pts ahead and once again can confirm we will be banking a profit on Saturday night!

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We are not finished and still have good bets to come including a Pacafi. If Day 1 was all about Stradivarius, Day 4 is all about Battaash and he looks a good thing.

Please be reminded the grid below represents the fate of the favourites in races at Goodwood over the last five years. These figures were prior to Day 1 so in need of updating for total accuracy.

NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

2yo:    44-99  for 44%  (+0.12)      3-20  for 15%  (-7.92)
3yo:    36-79  for 46%  (+4.27)     47-152 for 31%  (-4.13)
4yo+:   21-54  for 39%  (-0.46)     51-167 for 31%  (-0.87)
Total: 101-232 for 44%  (+3.92)    101-339 for 30% (-12.92)

And now for the trends...

1.50 Goodwood: Bombay Sapphire Glorious Stakes (Group 3) 1m4f

16/16: Returned 9/1 or shorter (100%)
13/16: Winners by 1 ½ lengths or less (81%)
....7/9: Placed from stall 1 (2 wins) (78%)
11/16: Had 3 or more runs already that season (69%)
11/16: Won over at least 1m4f before (69%)
..8/12: Winners came from stall 5 or higher (67%)
10/16: Won at Listed or better class before (63%)
10/16: Ran at Goodwood before (5 won) (63%)
10/16: Placed favourites (63%)
..9/16: Aged 4yo (56%)
..8/16: Winning favourites (50%)
..7/16: Unplaced last time out (44%)
..7/16: Ran at Ascot last time out (44%)
..5/16: Winning favourites (31%)
..4/16: Won by either a head or neck (25%)
..4/16: Trained by Luca Cumani (25%)
..2/16: Trained by Mark Johnston (13%)


Poet’s Word (7/4 fav) won the race 12 months ago

TIMEFORM

Mirage Dancer looks a typical older horse of Sir Michael Stoute's who will continue to get better and better and he can notch a first pattern success at the scene of his listed win in the spring. Red Verdon will be a major threat if reproducing his latest Royal Ascot second, while Second Step was runner-up in this 12 months ago and he should make another bold bid.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: MIRAGE DANCER 9/4 (WINNER)  2nd: SECOND STEP 7/2 (3rd)  3rd: EMINENT 13/2

***

2.25 Goodwood: Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) 1m

11/11: Came from stalls 1-6 (inc) (100%)
15/16: Won over 7f or 1m before (94%)
14/16: Had 2 or more previous runs that season (88%)
12/16: Not won a Group 3 or better before (75%)
12/16: Won at least twice during their career (75%)
12/16: Returned 6/1 or shorter (75%)
....6/8: Came from stalls 1-3 (inc) (75%)
11/16: Placed in the top 3 last time out (69%)
..8/16: Ran at Newbury (2), Goodwood (2) or Newmarket (4) last time (50%)
..5/16: Ran at Goodwood before (31%)
..5/16: Won last time out (31%)
..5/16: Winning favourites (31%)
..3/16: Trained by Richard Hannon (19%)
..3/16: Ridden by Ryan Moore (19%)
..2/16: Trained by Brian Meehan (13%)
..2/16: Trained by Mark Johnston (13%
)

In 2012 there was a dead-heat


Beat The Bank (7/4 fav) won the race 12 months ago

TIMEFORM

Threading failed to fire in the Falmouth but that's the third time she's disappointed at Newmarket and she's the one to beat if bouncing back to her best at the scene of her debut win a year ago. Britannia-winner Ostilio is respected now stepping up to pattern level, while there's surely more to come from Regal Reality after only 2 outings.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: THREADING 3/1  2nd: THREEANDFOURPENCE 7/2  3rd: OSTILIO 6/1 (2nd)

***

3.00 Goodwood: Unibet Golden Mile Heritage Handicap (Class 2) 1m

15/16: Aged 6yo or younger (94%)
15/16: Won over at least 1m before (94%)
14/16: Raced 3 or more times that season (88%)
11/13: Drawn 9 or lower (85%)
11/13: First two both drawn in 11 or lower (85%)
13/16: Won 3 or more races during their career (81%)
10/16: Carried 8st 13lbs or less (63%)
10/16: Never raced at Goodwood before (63%)
10/16: Priced 7/1 or shorter (63%)
..9/16: Aged  4 or 5yo (56%)
..8/16: Unplaced favourites (50%)
..8/16: Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (50%)
..6/16: Ran at Newmarket last time out (38%)
..4/16: Winning favourites (25%)
..4/16: Won their last race (25%)
..3/16: Trained by Mark Johnston (19%)


Master The World (6/1) won the race in 2017
Belgian Bill won the race in 2015
Red Avenger won the race in 2014

The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 12/1

TIMEFORM

SENIORITY was undone by racing away from the main action when eighth at Royal Ascot last time and still looks fairly weighted. He could be the answer to an open-looking renewal of this contest. Cape Byron has a tricky draw but is still feared most, whilst Fire Brigade, Escobar and Firmament are also much respected.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: FIRMAMENT 14/1  2nd: ESCOBAR 13/2  3rd: SENIORITY 9/2 (WINNER)

***

3.35 Goodwood: Qatar King George Stakes (Group 2) 5f

16/16: Returned 10/1 or shorter (100%)
15/16: Won over 5f before (94%)
13/16: Didn’t win last time out (81%)
12/16: Had 3 or more runs already that season (75%)
12/16: Won 4 or more times in their careers (75%)
11/16: Ran at York, Ascot or Newmarket last time out (69%)
..8/12: Came from stalls 8 or lower (67%)
10/16: Placed favourites (63%)
..9/16: Aged 4, 5 or 6yo (56%)
..7/16: Ran at Goodwood before (44%)
..6/16: Won at Listed Class before (38%)
..4/11: From stall 4 and 8 have won (36%)
..5/16: Winning favourites (31%)
..2/16: Ridden by Ryan Moore (13%)
..2/16: Trained by the Hills yard (13%)
..2/16: Trained by William Haggas (13%)
..2/16: Trained by Bryan Smart (13%)


Take Cover (8/1) won the race in 2014 & 2016


The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

TIMEFORM

It's very hard to look past last year’s winner BATTAASJH, despite him having to carry a Group 1 penalty. He lost little in defeat at Royal Ascot last time, and this more speed-orientated track will play to his strengths. Sioux Nation shaped as though the drop back to this trip would suit last time and is feared most, whilst Havana Grey is also much respected.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: BATTAASH 5/4 (WINNER)  2nd: HAVANA GREY 8/1  3rd: SIOUX NATION 8/1

Battaash returns to the scene of one of his most impressive performances today when he bids to land back-to-back renewals of this Group 2. Owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum, Battaash left his rivals wondering which way he went in the 5f contest last year, producing an effort that marked him out as a sprinter of considerable ability.

He takes on ten rivals on Friday as he aims to recapture the brilliance he showed at Goodwood, and subsequently at Chantilly, where he tore the field apart in the Prix de l'Abbaye. Writing in his exclusive Racing Post Weekender column, Charlie Hills, trainer of Battaash, said: "I’m really, really pleased with him. He’s moving like a dream and I think it’s the best we’ve had him this year."

JUST TO CONFIRM - THIS IS A PACAFI at 1pt WIN

(You beauty!)

*****

  Today's Pacafi: click here

REMEMBER!

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

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