PACAFI (Tuesday 16 April 2024)
April 15th, 2024
TEN DIMES 7.00 Newcastle at 8/11
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Pacafi (4 August 2018)
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Roger Varian snares Derby entrant Willie John for whopping 1.9m gns
Willie John 3.30 Doncaster at 6/5Unison And LV Liverpool Victoria Car Insurance Novice Stakes (1m2f)Pedigree: 325,000gns Y, 1,900,000gns Nkt Feb 18; 2nd foal; half-brother to 6f-7f winner Dreamfield (inc 2yo; RPR 113); dam 1m1f-10.5f winner (inc Group 1; 118), half-sister to 1m2f Gr 2 winner Jazzi Top out of 1m2f Group 1 winner, granddaughter of Irish Oaks winner.Sincere apologies for poor email alert, it should obviously have read Willie John 3.30 Doncaster at 6/5 (Bet365 19.18). 1pt win advised.THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE Optimum Ground: Good (10) Optimum Distance: 1m2f (10) Jockey Booking: Andrea Atzeni (10) Trainer Form: 3-12 for 25% (9) RPR: 95 (10) The Racing Horse Composite: 49/50 Main danger: Janabiya Big money buyWillie John was a big-money buy for Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum and after an impressive winning debut at Yarmouth last season before being ruled out of the Qipco 2,000 Guineas with a minor setback. Formerly trained by William Haggas he was switched to Roger Varian after changing hands for 1.9 million guineas in February (325,000gns yearling) and was being treated as a Derby contender by his new trainer before suffering the setback.Group 1 entry later this monthToday he runs in a Class 5 Novices' Stakes race at Doncaster and has to concede weight all round. The trainer has focused on top-level targets during the second-half of the season including a Group 1 at York on 22 August. His charge will have to win this lowly fare to take up that engagement! He has ground and trip to suit.High-class colt - Roger VarianWorth pointing out the trainer told us in late April: " Willie John has impressed me in his work this spring, galloping in the manner of a high-class colt. Whilst it is unfortunate that he has incurred a small setback at this stage of the season, this will not keep him out for too long and we look forward to mapping out a Group-race programme for him from July onwards.Trainer formRoger Varian has his horses well without hitting very top form. 2018 has a moderate look and shows 59-384 for just 15% (-138.49). His last couple of months or so have a better look and shown reasonable to good figures:August: 2 winners from 8 runners for 25% July: 11 winners from 61 runners for 18% June: 16 winners from 73 runners for 22% Andrea Atzeni rides and when he combines with the trainer they score 222-1104 for 20% (-92.23). The jockey is not at Goodwood today and is obviously at Doncaster to ride this one.Of his rivalsHidden Depths left a modest debut behind when second to the odds-on Rock Eagle at Windsor in June. Janabiya was also runner-up to a short-priced favourite last time at Wolverhampton with the winner franking the form at Goodwood earlier this week. Scaramanga ran well at Sandown in June and may not have stayed 1m4f at Newcastle subsequently. Alexis Carrington is out a dam that has produced winners with all three of her offspring to race and from a stable in fine form.TimeformWillie John has to concede weight all round on the back of a 9 month absence. However, he looked a very good prospect when scoring on debut at Yarmouth in the autumn and he is fancied to continue the good work starting out for Roger Varian, with signficant improvement on the cards. Sir Michael Stoute's Hidden Depths and Janabiya can also play a part.ValueWe are taking fitness on trust but he won first time out last season and we doubt the colt will be under-cooked for today. The price tag and trainer-switch suggest that a quick win must happen before taking a Group race. If our line of enquiry is correct the Pacafi must start odds-on (less than 4/5), we have perceived value. |
The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable.
4 Willie John 2.20 WIN 1.00 +1.20 +4.84 S/R 100% 3 Battaash 2.25 WIN 1.00 +1.25 +3.64 S/R 100% 2 Royal Plaza 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +2.39 S/R 100% 1 Star Shield 2.67 WIN 1.00 +1.67 +1.67 S/R 100%
August SELECTIONS: 4 WIN: 4 LOSE: 0 S/R: 100% PROFIT: +4.84pts
(1111) First or second: 100.00%
19 Queen Medb 1.80 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.88 S/R 63% 18 L'Explora 1.44 WIN 1.00 +0.44 +6.88 S/R 67% 17 Kuwait Station 2.50 WIN 1.00 +1.50 +6.44 S/R 65% 16 Advanced Virgo 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +4.94 S/R 63% 15 Major Partnership 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +4.22 S/R 60% 14 Raymond Tusk 2.75 WIN 1.00 +1.75 +3.49 S/R 58% 13 Hazapour 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.74 S/R 54% 12 Wicklow Brave 1.80 WIN 1.00 +0.80 +2.74 S/R 58% 11 Altra Vita 1.80 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.94 S/R 55% 10 Inessa 1.80 WIN 1.00 +0.80 +2.94 S/R 60% 9 Wissahickon 3.75 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.14 S/R 55% 8 Fox Coach 2.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +3.14 S/R 63% 7 Herculean 1.50 WIN 1.00 +0.50 +4.14 S/R 71% 6 Thriving 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +3.64 S/R 67% 5 Ballydun Oscar 1.67 WIN 2.00 +1.34 +2.54 S/R 60% 4 Alsimsaam 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.20 S/R 50% 3 Altra Vita 1.80 WIN 2.00 +1.60 +2.20 S/R 67% 2 Construct (R4) 2.37 WIN 2.00 +2.60 +0.60 S/R 50% 1 Forever Together 1.67 LOSE 2.00 -2.00 -2.00 S/R 0%
July SELECTIONS: 19 WIN: 12 LOSE: 7 S/R: 63% PROFIT: +5.88pts
(211L111281313111112) First or second: 78.95%
21 Moyassar 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.49 S/R 43% 20 Saxon Warrior 2.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.49 S/R 45% 19 Sporting Chance 2.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +3.49 S/R 47% 18 Kings Inn (E/W) 8.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +4.49 S/R 50% 17 Lotus Pond 1.67 WIN 1.00 +0.67 +5.59 S/R 53% 16 Caius Marcius 2.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +4.92 S/R 50% 15 Cracksman 1.80 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.92 S/R 53% 14 Battaash 3.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +6.92 S/R 57% 13 Settie Hill 1.83 WIN 1.00 +0.83 +7.92 S/R 62% 12 Sea Of Class 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +7.09 S/R 58% 11 New Winds 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.91 +6.37 S/R 55% 10 Wufud 2.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.46 S/R 50% 9 Mutafani 1.57 WIN 1.00 +0.57 +6.46 S/R 56% 8 Eyehaveagoodidea 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.89 S/R 50% 7 Aim Of Artemis 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +6.89 S/R 57% 6 Move Swiftly 2.75 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.79 S/R 50% 5 Red Mist (R4) 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.73 +6.79 S/R 60% 4 Haul Away (R4) 1.62 WIN 1.00 +0.56 +6.06 S/R 50% 3 Dream Today 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.50 S/R 33% 2 Masar (+saver) 17.00 WIN 1.00 +7.50 +6.50 S/R 50% 1 Settie Hill 1.44 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 S/R 0%
June SELECTIONS: 21 WIN: 9 LOSE: 12 S/R: 43% PROFIT: +1.49pts
(U12113131411122217232) First or second: 71.43%
NOTE: We secured 22/1 and 25/1 about Masar to 1pt win stakes but only recorded 16/1 to a 1/2pt stake. This seriously undervalues our profit for June but we know two of our members only secured 16/1. We would rather understate our performance. On this point our prices are neither best nor Betfair prices, we only nominate when the prices that are genuinely available, our members should be getting better prices so better profits!
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