Glorious Goodwood Racing Trends (Day 5)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse enjoyed another super day on Day 4 of Glorious Goodwood with 2 more winners making us 7 winners from 16 selections for a 44% strike-rate and importantly we went maximum stakes with Battaash who was nominated as our Pacafi. Our profit for the week stands at +16.80pts to level-stakes, and August now shows 3-3 for 100% for a +3.64pts profit with our Pacafi.

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This represents top class betting advice but backed up by a sound rationale. Oh, and today we had a system bet up at Thirsk and the William Haggas trained Mankib won at 6/4. A very good day indeed, we will take a day off on Sunday but first we have to find a winner for Saturday...

Please be reminded the grid below represents the fate of the favourites in races at Goodwood over the last five years. These figures were accurate prior to Day 1 so in need of updating. Three-year olds in non-handicaps show 46%.

NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

2yo:    44-99  for 44%  (+0.12)      3-20  for 15%  (-7.92)
3yo:    36-79  for 46%  (+4.27)     47-152 for 31%  (-4.13)
4yo+:   21-54  for 39%  (-0.46)     51-167 for 31%  (-0.87)
Total: 101-232 for 44%  (+3.92)    101-339 for 30% (-12.92)

And now for the trends...

1.50 Goodwood: Qatar Stewards' Sprint Stakes Handicap (Class 2) 6f

14/14: Didn’t win their last race (100%)
13/14: Won over 6f previously (93%)
11/12: Winners carried 9st or more (92%)
12/14: Raced at Goodwood previously (86%)
11/14: Won at least 3 times during their career (79%)
11/14: Had 4 or more runs that season (79%)
10/14: Finished 4th or worse in their last race (71%)
10/14: Favourites unplaced (71%)
..8/12: Winners carried between 9st 0lbs and 9st 5lbs (67%)
..8/14: Priced between 8/1 and 12/1 in the market (57%)
..7/14: Winning Distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more (50%)
..7/14: Returned a double-figure price in the market (50%)
..7/14: Raced at either York (3) or Newmarket (4) last time out (50%)
..3/14: Trained by Clive Cox (21%)
..3/14: Favourites (one in the last 12 years) (21%)
..1/14: 3yo winners (7%)
..0/12: Winner from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings (0%)

Scorching Heat (9/2 fav) won the race 12 months ago

DRAW BIAS: Strongly Favours Low

TIMEFORM

This looks wide-open and a chance is taken on My Amigo, who showed plenty of dash when fourth over 7f at Ascot last weekend and dropping back to this trip should be very much in his favour. Like the selection, Classic Seniority has slipped to a handy mark and is feared on the back of his solid effort at Hamilton. Others to consider include George Dryden, Boy In The Bar and Shepherd's Purse.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: MAAKAASIB 11/1  2nd: CLASSIC SENIORITY 12/1 (Non-runner)  3rd: RELATED 18/1 (3rd) 

Our selection is a three-time AW winner who put in a good shift when runner-up at Windsor back on turf last month. Another solid effort at Chelmsford since and this low-mileage 4yo is one to consider. Trainer Simon Crisford has made a profit of +£59.09 when having one runner at a flat meeting since the start of the 2013 season and the brilliant William Buick rides. He has a strike-rate of 21% at Goodwood since the start of the 2013 season. Looks a cracking each-way bet with good draw and progressive profile!

***

2.25 Goodwood: The Qatar Summer Stakes Handicap (Class 2) 1m6f

14/15: Won at least twice before (93%)
13/15: Aged either 4 or 5yo (87%)
13/15: Won over at least 1m4f before (87%)
12/15: Raced within the last 4 weeks (80%)
..7/10: Winners came from stalls 10-14 (inc) (70%)
10/15: Carried 9st 7lbs or more (67%)
..9/15: Returned 9/1 or shorter (60%)
..9/15: Rated between 90-100 (60%)
..9/15: Placed favourites (60%)
..8/15: Came from the top three in the betting (53%)
..4/15: Winning favourites (27%)
..4/15: Ran at Newmarket last time out (27%)
..4/15: Trained by Mark Johnston (27%)
..3/15: Won last time out (20%)
..3/15: Ran at Ascot last time out (20%)
..2/15: Trained by Luca Cumani (13%)
..2/15: Ridden by Ryan Moore (13%)

Horses from stalls 12, 13 and 14 have good each-way records in recent years

Soldier In Action at 11/1 won this race last year

TIMEFORM

With just 7 runs under his belt, WALTON STREET may well have more to offer and he shaped as though well worth another crack at this trip when third at Royal Ascot last time. Charlie Appleby's charge gets the nod ahead of the progressive Melting Dew, who will be a big threat if coping with this step up in trip. Sofia's Rock is the pick of the Mark Johnston-trained quintet and Pacify is feared, too.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: WALTON STREET 4/1 (Non-runner)  2nd: MELTING DEW 11/2 (2nd)  3rd: SOFIA'S ROCK 14/1

We are certain Walton Street has improvement to come. Dual winner in 2017, including here, and added to his tally at Meydan in February. Solid third in the Duke of Edinburgh back from a break at Royal Ascot (1½m) and going back up in trip may help. An opening win double for William Buick?

***

3.00 Goodwood: Qatar Gordon Stakes (Group 3)

15/15: Won between 1-3 times before (100%)
14/15: Came from the top 3 in the betting (93%)
10/11: Winners came from stalls 4-10 (inc) (91%)
13/15: Run in the last 6 weeks (87%)
11/15: Placed favourites (73%)
11/15: Won over at least 1m2f before (73%)
11/15: Returned 9/2 or shorter (73%)
..8/11: Won by horse from stall 4, 7 & 10 (73%)
..9/15: Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (60%)
..8/15: Winning distance – neck or shorter (53%)
..8/15: Went onto run in the St Leger (53%)
..7/15: Winning favourites (47%)
..6/15: Won last time out (40%)
..6/15: Raced at Ascot last time out (40%)
..6/15: Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (40%)
..4/11: Won by horse from stall 7 (36%)
..4/15: Ridden by Ryan Moore (27%)
..2/15: Trained by Jeremy Noseda (13%)
..2/15: Went onto win the St Leger (13%)

Crystal Ocean at 6/4 won this race last year

TIMEFORM

DEE EX BEE has as yet been unable to replicate his Derby second but this represents a big drop in class having contested at the highest level on his last 3 outings and he can take full advantage. Sun Maiden wasn't far behind Thursday's Nassau winner Wild Illusion in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot so is feared most.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: CROSS COUNTER 5/2 (WINNER)  2nd; SUN MAIDEN 5/2 (general)  3rd: DEE EX BEE 13/8 (2nd)

Improving sort who defied top weight in impressive fashion at Ascot 3 weeks ago and a crack at this level is the next obvious step. Could be a William Buick 209-1 win treble.

***

3.40 Goodwood: Unibet Stewards' Cup Handicap (Class 2) 6f

15/15: Won over 6f before (100%)
14/15: Aged 6yo (93%)
14/15: Had at least 3 previous career wins to their name (93%)
14/15: Had 3 or more previous runs that season (93%)
10/13: Winners came from a double-figure draw (77%)
11/15: Raced at either Ascot, York or Newmarket last time out (73%)
10/15: Aged either 4 or 5yo (67%)
10/15: Placed favourites (top 4) (67%)
10/15: Carried 9st 1lbs or less (67%)
..9/15: Raced at Goodwood before (60%)
..8/15: Placed 1st or 2nd last time out (53%)
..5/15: Favourites (1 joint, 1 co) (33)%
..2/15: Trained by Roger Charlton (13%)
..2/15: Trained by William Haggas (13%)
..2/15: Winning 3yo (13%)


Lancelot Du Lac (25/1) won the race 12 months ago

DRAW BIAS: Strongly Favours Low (in contrast to statistics)

TIMEFORM

Not for the first time this season GEORGE BOWEN turned what looked a competitive handicap into a one-horse affair when striking at Hamilton recently. On that evidence, he's not far off the standard one would expect of a pattern-class sprinter and ought to go mightly close here under a penalty. Progressive 3-y-o Foxtrot Lady, recent Ascot winner Spring Loaded and Glenamoy Lad are live dangers.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1st: TIS MARVELLOUS 10/1 (general 17.18)  2nd: FOXTROT LADY 7/1 (general)  3rd: GLENAMOY LAD 16/1 (general)

Tis Marvellous is a useful-looking gelding and was smart as a 2yo. Successful in the Prix Robert Papin at Maisons-Laffitte but still useful nowadays. He was 20/1 when a good ¾-length fourth of 28 to Bacchus in Wokingham Stakes (Handicap) at Royal Ascot last time. He stays 6f and acts on good to firm going. Wears a tongue tie today.

*****

  Today's Pacafi: click here

REMEMBER!

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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