Pacafi (7 August 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

 Magnetic Charm 1.45 Newbury at 7/4

Sanctuary Newbury Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (6f)

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Pedigree: Fifth foal; half-sister to winners Usherette (7f-9.5f inc AW/Group 2; RPR 119), Show Day (1m-1m1f inc Listed; 100) & African Jazz (1m4f AW; 85); dam Listed-placed 9.7f-10.5f winner (91), sister to US 1m3f Grade 2 winner Expansion out of 10.5f Gr 3 winner

THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE

Optimum Ground: Good (10) 
Optimum Distance: 6f (10)
Jockey Booking: James Doyle (10)
Trainer Form: 5-13 for 38% (10) 
RPR: 89 (10)
The Racing Horse Composite: 50/50

SAVER: Miss Serenity at 10/3. 1/4pt win advised.

Late foal, lovely debut

Magnetic Charm is a late foal (27 April) and a half-sister to Usherette, who won four times between 7f and 1m 1f including two Group 2 races. There was a good word for the Exceed And Excel filly prior to her first taste of competitive action over course and distance last month. She showed plenty of promise when third behind Angel Mead beaten 1 1/2l as a 7/2 joint-favourite and on today's ground conditions. This Class 5 race looks just a little easier but our Pacafi is sure to step up again from debut run.

Trainer form

Once again William Haggas has his horses in good form and 5 of the last 13 have won for 38%. His 2018 figures show 82-348 for 24%

August:       5 winners from  19 runners for 26%  (-1.25)
July:        23 winners from  87 runners for 26%  (-1.51)
Total:       28 winners from 106 runners for 26%  (-2.76)

When he combines with James Doyle they score 45-135 for a big 33% strike-rate and a level-stake profit of +28.42pts.

Our Pacafi is owned by the Queen and we were so glad Call To Mind was not fatally injured (suffered a tendon injury) at Goodwood and although will not race again will be looked after. We were pleased the trainer had a winner for the Queen a couple of days later with Seniority and here is another chance to notch another.

James Doyle has a 37% strike rate on favourites since the start of the 2013 season and is now riding at his peak. We have never seen him ride so well and his confidence is there for all to see.

Of her rivals

Winter Light also made a decent debut when runner-up over 5f at Sandown and finishing in front of Symphony but it is Miss Serenity who looks a likely improver. Richard Hannon runs three newcomers with Shape Of Water, a half-sister to six winners, preferred to Dinas Powys. The betting will tell us which is the best of the three Hannon debutantes.

Timeform

MAGNETIC CHARM is bred to be useful, and given her debut third over C&D was full of promise, a leap forward in form terms is very much on the cards. 6f is probably Miss Serenity's trip, at least in the short term, and she is a big threat, with Dinas Powys perhaps the pick of the Hannon newcomers. 

Value

We have Miss Serenity to beat and it is hard to measure her given how green she was on debut but she looked to have a bit under the bonnet. We think Magnetic Charm will win but at the prices it was prudent to have a saver to more than cover our stake. We believe we have the Richard Hughes trained Winter Light covered and will be disappointed if we do not make a profit within the structure of this bet! Had Miss Serenity not been in the race our Pacafi would have been a shade of odds on. We believe we have perceived value with the only runner in the race with course form.

 The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable.

 5  Magnetic Charm      2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.31  +6.15   S/R 100%
 4  Willie John         2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.84   S/R 100%
 3  Battaash            2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +3.64   S/R 100%
 2  Royal Plaza         1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +2.39   S/R 100%
 1  Star Shield         2.67  WIN   1.00  +1.67  +1.67   S/R 100%

August SELECTIONS: 5  WIN: 5  LOSE: 0  S/R: 100%  PROFIT: +6.15pts

(11111)       First or second: 100.00%

19  Queen Medb          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.88   S/R  63%
18  L'Explora           1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +6.88   S/R  67%
17  Kuwait Station      2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +6.44   S/R  65%
16  Advanced Virgo      1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +4.94   S/R  63%  
15  Major Partnership   1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +4.22   S/R  60%
14  Raymond Tusk        2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  +3.49   S/R  58%
13  Hazapour            1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.74   S/R  54%
12  Wicklow Brave       1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.74   S/R  58%
11  Altra Vita          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.94   S/R  55% 
10  Inessa              1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.94   S/R  60%
 9  Wissahickon         3.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.14   S/R  55%
 8  Fox Coach           2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.14   S/R  63%
 7  Herculean           1.50  WIN   1.00  +0.50  +4.14   S/R  71%
 6  Thriving            2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +3.64   S/R  67%  
 5  Ballydun Oscar      1.67  WIN   2.00  +1.34  +2.54   S/R  60%
 4  Alsimsaam           2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.20   S/R  50%
 3  Altra Vita          1.80  WIN   2.00  +1.60  +2.20   S/R  67% 
 2  Construct (R4)      2.37  WIN   2.00  +2.60  +0.60   S/R  50%
 1  Forever Together    1.67  LOSE  2.00  -2.00  -2.00   S/R   0%

July SELECTIONS: 19  WIN: 12  LOSE: 7  S/R: 63%  PROFIT: +5.88pts

(211L111281313111112)       First or second: 78.95%

21  Moyassar            2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.49   S/R  43%
20  Saxon Warrior       2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.49   S/R  45%
19  Sporting Chance     2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.49   S/R  47%
18  Kings Inn (E/W)     8.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +4.49   S/R  50%
17  Lotus Pond          1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  +5.59   S/R  53%
16  Caius Marcius       2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +4.92   S/R  50%
15  Cracksman           1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.92   S/R  53%
14  Battaash            3.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +6.92   S/R  57%
13  Settie Hill         1.83  WIN   1.00  +0.83  +7.92   S/R  62%
12  Sea Of Class        1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +7.09   S/R  58%
11  New Winds           1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +6.37   S/R  55%
10  Wufud               2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.46   S/R  50%
 9  Mutafani            1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +6.46   S/R  56%
 8  Eyehaveagoodidea    1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.89   S/R  50%
 7  Aim Of Artemis      2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +6.89   S/R  57%
 6  Move Swiftly        2.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.79   S/R  50%
 5  Red Mist (R4)       1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.73  +6.79   S/R  60%
 4  Haul Away (R4)      1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.56  +6.06   S/R  50%
 3  Dream Today         1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.50   S/R  33%
 2  Masar (+saver)     17.00  WIN   1.00  +7.50  +6.50   S/R  50%
 1  Settie Hill         1.44  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.00   S/R   0%

June SELECTIONS: 21  WIN: 9  LOSE: 12  S/R: 43%  PROFIT: +1.49pts

(U12113131411122217232)       First or second: 71.43%

NOTE: We secured 22/1 and 25/1 about Masar to 1pt win stakes but only recorded 16/1 to a 1/2pt stake. This seriously undervalues our profit for June but we know two of our members only secured 16/1. We would rather understate our performance. On this point our prices are neither best nor Betfair prices, we only nominate when the prices that are genuinely available, our members should be getting better prices so better profits!

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