The reality of betting was spelled out by the wonderful New England philosopher Ralph Waldo Emerson who reminded us: "Shallow men believe in luck. Strong men believe in cause and effect." Since the inception of The Racing Horse in June 2011 it has never used the word luck in the context of a winning or losing bet, as long as it exists it never will.
The mistaken belief
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during a period of time, then it will happen less frequently in the future, presumably as a means of balancing nature. For example, a coin is tossed 5 times and all the results show heads, so during the 6th attempt the person may feel a tail is due, those that predict a tail have fallen for the fallacy. Of course, the probability of obtaining heads or tails remain the same, which is 1 in 2. The probability of getting 20 heads and then 1 tail, and the probability of getting 20 heads then another head are both 1 in 2,097,152. Therefore, it is equally likely to toss 21 heads as it is to toss 20 heads then 1 tail, when tossing a fair coin 21 times.
The use of the term 'Monte Carlo fallacy' originates from the most famous example of this phenomenon, which occurred in a Monte Carlo Casino on 18th August 1915. Then, a ball fell in black 15 times. Because of such an occurring gambler's started backing on red but they fell foul to the fallacy as black turned up 26 times. This was an extremely uncommon occurrence, with a probability of around 1 in 33.6 million. Gamblers lost millions of francs betting against black, reasoning incorrectly that the streak was causing an imbalance in the randomness of the wheel, and that it had to be followed by a long streak of red.
Mathematics is the governing force of betting
The Racing Horse understands mathematics and realises it is the governing force of betting. Luck NEVER enters any equation we are familiar with and besides, the word means too many things to too many people. Luck has zero memory or value, only fools consider it a variable, part or constant in a bet. Better to learn your subject, work hard, stay focused and be positive, it is these elements that lead to positive results - it has absolutely nothing to do with luck!
Everything that comes into our betting is invited
In the world of betting most expect instant results and want changes to occur overnight, and when that does not happen they lose faith then doubt what they have learned. The biggest mistake is to blame outside forces such as luck or other people for their misfortunes. Everything that comes into our betting is invited through thoughts and actions, and apart from being counterproductive, placing blame on bad luck feeds then perpetuates the cycle.
Betting is a business where professional gamblers accept four sovereign words, they are WIN, LOSE, PROFIT and LOSS, nothing else matters! They accept the need to work with a working capital which is an amount of money that has no emotional attachment.
Professional shield and temporary dissipation
If accepting mathematics are the governing force of betting what are its bedfellows? Patience is one of them. One previous problems of ours was the placing of recreational type bets. Now, any bet struck outside our strategy or systems is deemed a mistake, a big mistake! These bets harm/soil/dilute our hard work and invite us to chase losses, which is exactly what the bookmaker wants us to do. Apart from a lottery ticket we never place a recreational bet, we view the act as a lapse, fail, weakness and a barrier to professionalism and success!
Betting bank, money management, perceived value plus an edge are accommodated within the mathematics remit so what other contrivances can be considered bedfellows? Emotional resilience plays a big part in any human endeavor but also a key factor in betting. Claiming this title asks the bettor to remove frustration, anger, sadness and rage from the psyche, something we are not generally equipped to do. Emotions prevent us from being able to make decisions based on sound logic and reasoning, and very few can adapt to stressful situations or the consequential losing run.
Professionalism, dedication and attitude
This brings us to professionalism, dedication and attitude. We know that if we are serious about winning like a professional then we need to act like a professional. Prerequisites include believing in yourself with zero doubt in the use of a strategy or system. Those who win will have a sound relationship with their betting ledger and spend as much time analysing their losses as their wins. On a personal note we have a post-mortem after every losing bet to see:
a) where we went wrong, if indeed we did go wrong, and
b) what can we do better next time.
Once again it no longer consumes but we are duty bound to revisit the losing bet. It represents an opportunity to improve. Professionals also know when to adapt when the rules or edges changes. Adaptability comes with experience and those with mathematical skills will almost certainly get there quicker than others.
So what tools are needed to make betting pay?
So, what tools have we needed to make our betting pay? An understanding of mathematics, patience, emotional resilience and professionalism. This sounds obvious but if you asked all punters/bettors what an overround was, less than 5% would be able to explain it. Effectively this dismisses 95% of those who bet in one single sweep meaning the vast majority are playing with money without understanding the rules of the game.
If the reader of the above paragraph is unfamiliar with this reference we ask them to cease from betting now and cancel their subscription.
To win from sports betting is the hardest task and we have tried to describe the main traits needed to have a chance of success, but even then and to make matters worse there are saboteurs on every corner, some try to be helpful but they are saboteurs nonetheless.
Brian Gleeson is a saboteur!
As in most things in life, one of the biggest problems in betting is misinformation and bias. One has to be a special type not to absorb at least some of the nonsense spouted, these information streams care nothing for the receiver. Our advice is not to accept the conclusions of pundits, better to make your own mistake than those of others. Those on our television screens are promoting themselves, preferring posture and image over relevance. Interesting to note they never mention profit or loss! For example, there is a silly man called Brian Gleeson who talks about odds on ITV Racing and he makes lots of comments about the professional bettors and those "in the know" being in the betting ring! I can assure him those he refers to are not at the races. Why would they drink warm beer, fight crowds and take poor odds? These people are at home or in their office with all their bookmaker and exchange accounts open, with live pictures and up to the second feeds.
What are the quickest ways to the poor house?
Some great sports bettors worked out the way to win by themselves the hard way, we did, but some had a top notch mentor to show them the ropes. Our best advice is look closely at how successful bettors work and try to understand their modus operandi. From there you can absorb, tweak and find your own path. A lifetimes betting tells us randomness, guesswork and laziness is the way to the poor house, betting whilst consuming alcohol will get you there much quicker. Our advice is always the same, work hard and use a strategy or system where you have defined criteria to work from.
Our strategy is simple and well known to members and it really is a great starting point. You can view our core beliefs here where we shared it with RACE ADVISOR
Formula for success re sports betting
Sports betting is a complex endeavor that requires one to adhere to certain principles but it is not rocket science. One has to adapt to a changing world but sports betting has a common denominator that will never change and we are going to share it: It is an EDGE + PERCEIVED VALUE = PROFIT.
Of course you must first accept the previous paragraphs and there lies the difficulty!
Today's Pacafi: click here
Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.
The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.