RESTIVE SPIRIT 3.15 Ripon at 2/1

Ripon Annual Badgeholders Handicap (1m)

Pedigree: 37,000gns Nkt July 2018; third foal; half-brother to winners Boost (6f/7f AW; RPR 84) and First Rate (German 8.7f); dam 6f-7f winner (inc 2yo Group 1 Cheveley Park; 117) out of 7f 2yo Listed winner closely related to 6f 2yo Group 2 winner Dazzle

THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE

Optimum Ground: Good (10) 
Optimum Distance: 1m (10)
Jockey Booking: Ben Curtis (9)
Trainer Form: July 23-87 for 26% (10) 
RPR: 103 (9)
The Racing Horse Composite: 48/50

Main Danger: Three Saints Bay at 3/1

Course and distance winner

Restive Spirit 3.25 Ripon opened his account in a maiden here  over course and distance last month and was well backed to follow up at Goodwood. However, he missed the break and used up too much energy getting back on terms. The return to a mile will suit and compensation awaits. We have backed Three Saints Bay as a stake-saver.

The Racing Horse was impressed with this COURSE AND DISTANCE WIN and with his top-class pedigree the manner in which he strode clear in the final furlong suggests he could develop into a very useful performer for his powerful stable. The fact he was made the 11/4 second favourite for a valuable Class 2 Handicap at Goodwood speaks volumes, today is a Class 3 at lowly Ripon and one where our Pacafi is a course and distance winner and very much the least exposed!

Trainer form

William Haggas is having a good 2018 but not hitting the 27% of last year. He is currently scoring at 23% and whilst we expected a percentage drop this season he has dropped a big 4%. July and August have improved things since June. Here are his latest figures:

August:     7 winners from 31 runners for 23%
July:      23 winners from 87 runners for 26%
June:      13 winners from 92 runners for 14%
May:       22 winners from 84 runners for 26%
April:      8 winners from 29 runners for 28%
March:      7 winners from 14 runners for 50%

Ben Curtis's strike rate on favourites since the start of the 2013 season is 35% whilst Haggas registers 49 winners from 186 runners for a 26% strike-rate at Ripon. When Curtis rides for Haggas they combine to score 22-64 for a big 34% and a decent +15.43pts profit to level-stakes.

Ground, breeding and optimum conditions

Thinking of the ground conditions we believe we have this covered. There is going to be rain in the area today and some of it might be heavy so the current good going might easily become good to soft. The Pacafi won on fast ground here but his sire is the German bred Intello. He won 6 of his 9 races, one on heavy ground, one on soft, two on good to soft and two on good so his optimum ground must be considered on the soft side on distances over a mile plus. The dam is Hooray, she won a Group 1 at Newmarket on good to soft ground though over 6f but was going away from the field at the line. Three Saints Bay has won 3 from 4 races on good to soft so handles the expected conditions.

Ripon is for front-runners if...

Ripon has one of the biggest pace biases in the country and particularly favours front runners, everyone wants to lead and a suicidal pace often ensues resulting in easy pickings for the hold up horses. If you can identify a single front runner in a race and the jockey gets his fractions right they can be hard to beat hence our saver on Three Saints Bay. Ripon is quite a tight right handed course and low numbers are on the inside which will help the danger who is drawn in stall 1. If the rain does come we cannot see that helping Aquarium giving a further edge to the front two in the market.

Of his rivals

We have backed Three Saints Bay as a stake-saver. Three Saints Bay has made all for comfortable victories at Beverley the last twice but he may be vulnerable here raised another 6lb but could be a danger out in front. Aquarium won in small fields at Epsom and Nottingham last month and there was nothing wrong with his third over a slightly longer trip last time at Goodwood – he is unlikely to be far away again. Humble Gratitude may prove the pick of the remainder.

Timeform

Three Saints Bay's front-running style should be well suited to this track and he's taken to complete the hat-trick but a case can be made for all the others in an interesting 3-y-o handicap. Restive Spirit and Aquarium both performed with credit in Glorious Goodwood handicaps recently and could be the pair to give David O'Meara's charge most to do.

Value

If we are correct in saying it was the slow start at Goodwood that contributed most to the last time out defeat where Ryan Moore looked after the colt in the final furlong, our bet should start at an SP closer to 11/8 and not 2/1.

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