The Racing Horse believes that no one has all the answers when it comes to successful betting, in some areas there are no answers. Furthermore, in a subject matter which is totally subjective once you think you have the game beat you get a kicking in the proverbial ass! So what do we know?
We know we are professional and part of the 1% to 2% who makes money from sports betting and would like to talk/remind members about our approach to it. Many believe that there is little logic behind a level stake approach and we are sympathetic to those comments but it does form the benchmark against which all others should be compared in regard to profitability and risk evaluation and this is the reason we display our results in this way. Paul C has reminded us that our mode of betting is too safe and boring and he has now left us, but we have always preferred natural and incremental growth under the protection of a no risk umbrella.
On a personal note we actually do bet a percentage of the bank but decide not to convey that sort of information to our members. We cannot know the individual traits of those members and it would be wrong to advise them not knowing their mentality and financial commitments. It is worth reminding ourselves that generally speaking, percentage staking does not take into account how confident the bettor is about the bet so in a perfect world an adjustment to take into account the confidence could/should be made.
It is our belief that if a strategy or system can make a profit to level stakes then it is the real deal. For one, it eradicates those long debilitating losing runs that decimates the individual and betting bank. Naturally, one must always be sceptical of level-staking results on a small sample but our sample size is now huge (since June 2011).
Our strategy and systems makes a profit on the back of a high strike-rate and is clearly suited to a progressive staking plan of some sort but we leave that decision to the member.
We have admitted to members of our slight disappointment with the 2018 systems this year and feel we have under-performed. We are a little embarrassed that we have not shown ourselves in the best light with BETTING SCHOOL where we share a part of our advice. But even with these admissions we are MAKING A PROFIT and our members and readers must know how hard that is to do. It takes hard work and time and even when we have a losing bet we are passing on excellent information to help the member frame their own bets. Here is a reminder and summary of our three systems for 2018:
Willie Mullins NHF System 2018: 16 winners from 38 runners for 42% and a profit of +8.21pts Saeed bin Suroor AW System 2018: 12 winners from 35 runners for 35% and a profit of +9.57pts William Haggas Up North System 2018: 11 winners from 34 runners for 32% and a profit of +3.21pts Total for 2018: 39 winners from 107 runners for 36% and a profit of +20.99pts
We will be running our National Hunt Trainers System again this year and that starts in October. We will also share our 'Each-Way Strategy on the AW' in the autumn which is born out of our Pacafi but at better prices. The aim is to protect our betting bank before having a run of winners. Typically with this sort of thing we tend to mark time then the strategy produces a surge but something that suits our risk averse mentality.
Earlier we talked about Betting School, we have just completed a piece for ON COURSE PROFITS where we share some information about matching a horse's entry to the racecourse and ground conditions. If this is well received we will roll it out to our members and produce a template for each and every racecourse in the UK. We ask our members to read the piece in September on the ON COURSE PROFITS website, it is free to join. For those who are unaware we also write for BETTING INSIDERS. This month we revisit the fortunes of Richard Hughes and give an update on the success of Charlie Appleby.
Today's Pacafi: click here
The Racing Horse Recitation!
Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.
The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.