On Wednesday 22nd August 2018 we have the start of the four-day Ebor Festival from York and we will be covering all the big races with trends and betting advice. We expect to make a profit with our betting advice over the four days. It is worth reminding our members we will provide the most comprehensive set of racing trends and pertinent betting advice for just 33p per day.
Please be reminded the grid below represents the fate of the favourites in races at York over the last five years. These figures were accurate prior to the opening race on Day 1. It might also be worth noting who are the top trainers at the course so far in 2018, if you do not back them then perhaps it makes sense to use a saver on them?
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS) HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS) 2yo: 32-104 for 31% (-21.76) 6-26 for 23% (-4.63) 3yo: 18-51 for 35% (-10.47) 37-100 for 37% (+31.82) 4yo+: 24-55 for 44% (+20.61) 45-206 for 22% (-25.56) Total: 74-210 for 35% (-11.62) 88-332 for 27% (+1.63)
TOP 4 TRAINERS at YORK for 2018 Richard Fahey: 15 winners from 87 runners for 17% (+39.00) Mark Johnston: 7 winners from 25 runners for 28% (+7.35) John Gosden: 5 winners from 11 runners for 45% (+4.91) Michael Dods: 4 winners form 19 runners for 21% (+12.83)
Jockey Paul Hanagan looks certain to have a winner at the Festival given his 6-27 for 22% (+33.50) at the course this year, and for the fact he will have first choice of trainer Richard Fahey's horses. We will keep an eye on his rides and report back after each day, we can confirm he rode a winner for Fahey yesterday at Hamilton at 5/1 and today rides: 1.55 Eastern Impact at 18/1 (Unibet), 2.25 Ventura Ocean at 18/1 (general), 4.15 Northwest Frontier at 10/1 (general) and 4.50 Gabriel The Wire at 20/1 (general). Cannot see an obvious chance but...
AND NOW FOR THE TRENDS:
2.25 York: Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (Group 3) 7f
14/15: Won at least once before (93%)
13/15: Won their previous race (87%)
12/15: Placed favourites (80%)
11/15: Won over 7f or further before (73%)
..8/11: Winners came from stalls 5-9 (inc) (73%)
..7/15: Ran at York (3) or Newmarket (4) last time out (47%)
..6/15: Winning favourites (40%)
..3/15: Ran at York before (20%)
..2/15: Trained by Mark Johnston (13%)
..2/15: Ridden by James Doyle (13%)
..2/15: Trained by William Haggas (13%)
..1/15: Winners from stall 1 (6%)
Wells Farhh Go (10/1) won the race in 2017
PERSIAN MOON is on the up and has strong C&D form to his name that could count for plenty, so he receives the vote. Watan and Broome look good prospects, while the imposing Phoenix of Spain also deserves a mention.
Hugo Palmer shows a level-stake profit of £104.53 with horses being stepped up in trip since the start of the 2013 season (runs James Street at 16/1 with Ladbrokes (Tuesday 15.41).
THE RACING HORSE VERDICT
1: PERSIAN MOON 11/2 (3rd) 2: PHOENIX OF SPAIN 6/1 (WINNER) 3: SWISSTERIOUS 16/1
There is precious little established form to go on so we are considering which of these maiden winners has the most potential. Course and distance form is always important but in the context of this race it makes Persian Moon a stand-out each way chance to nothing. Must be placed at least! Recorded a fast time when off the mark at Yarmouth in July and looks really progressive. Persian Moon and Phoenix Of Spain are closely matched on Sandown running and our nomination was borderline, we are backing these two against the field at the prices!
3.00 York: Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) 1m4f
14/16: Had 2 or more runs that season (88%)
13/16: Won at least twice already in their career (81%)
13/16: Placed favourites (81%)
12/16: Won over at least 1m2f before (75%)
12/16: Returned 6/1 or shorter (75%)
..9/16: Trained by Stoute (3), Godolphin (2) or Gosden (4) (56%)
..7/16: Winning favourites (44%)
..5/16: Went onto be placed in the St Leger (31%)
..3/16: Ridden by Frankie Dettori (19%)
..2/16: Went onto win the St Leger (Lucarno, Rule of Law) (13%)
..0/16: Winners from stall 1 (0%)
Cracksman (4/6 fav) won the race in 2017
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 3 times before (2001, 2003 & 2016)
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute has won this race 7 times before (1982, 1994, 1999, 2000, 2005, 2011 & 2013)
13 horses have won this before going onto win the St Leger
Note: The 2008 renewal was run at Goodwood
We have a draw bias against high numbers.
CROSS COUNTER made a big impression when quickening clear in the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood 18 days ago, setting a new course record in the process, and sets a high standard if able to reproduce that form. His biggest threat may come from stablemate Old Persian, who had excuses in the Irish Derby after his King Edward success at Royal Ascot. Wells Farhh Go is another to consider.
THE RACING HORSE VERDICT
1: CROSS COUNTER 7/4 (2nd) 2: WELLS FARHH GO 5/1 3: THE PENTAGON 15/2
The biggest concern is that this race comes too soon for Cross Counter. Boasts a progressive profile and followed up Ascot handicap with an impressive all-the-way win in Group 3 at Goodwood, setting new course record on ground not lightning fast. We cannot imagine Kew Gardens being able to concede 5lbs to our nomination and if the O'Brien horses are fit and well a place is the best he can hope for.
3.35 York: Juddmonte International Stakes (Group 1) 1m2f88y
15/15: Won between 1-3 times before (100%)
23/24: Winners were aged 3yo to 5yo (96%)
21/24: Winners had won on the going (88%)
14/16: Previous Group 1 winners (88%)
14/16: Had 3 or more previous runs that season (88%)
20/24: Winners won a Group 1 race (83%)
13/16: Not run at York before (81%)
13/16: Returned 9/2 or shorter (81%)
13/16: Won over 1m2f (or further) before (81%)
19/24: Winners already won over the same distance (79%)
12/16: Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (75%)
12/16: Aged 4yo or older (75%)
11/16: Aged 4 or 5yo (69%)
16/24: Winners won a Group 1 race in the same season (67%)
10/16: Winning distance of 1 length or less (63%)
10/16: Won 5 or more times before (63%)
13/24: Favourites have won, 1 was a joint favourite (54%)
..8/16: Winning favourites (50%)
..8/16: Ran at Ascot (5) or Sandown (3) last time out (50%)
..5/10: Winners were Irish-trained (50%)
10/24: Winners were the top rated horse (42%)
..7/24: Winners were unrated (29%)
..6/24: Winners previously won at the course (25%)
..4/16: Trained by Aidan O'Brien (25%)
..3/16: Won the Epsom Derby that season (19%)
..2/16: Ridden by Frankie Dettori (5 winners in total) (13%)
1/10 is the lowest winning SP (Frankel) and 50/1 the biggest.
Ulysses (4/1) won the race in 2017
Note: The 2008 renewal was run at Newmarket
Saeed bin Suroor's profit with horses running after a break since the start of the 2013 season is £87.99 and he saddles Thunder Snow.
As so many of Sir Michael Stoute's leading lights have done over the years, POET'S WORD is improving with age. Indeed, victories in the Prince of Wales's Stakes and King George have elevated this 5-y-o to the upper echelon of the middle distance division, and further success awaits here. Roaring Lion outpointed Saxon Warrior in the Eclipse and is feared most, though Benbatl also commands respect.
THE RACING HORSE VERDICT
1: ROARING LION 3/1 (WINNER) 2: POET'S WORD 13/8 (2nd) 3rd: THUNDER SNOW 22/1
All the fancied runners in this race are hold-up horse and we have looked at who can challenge last of all. Roaring Lion is a strong, attractive colt and a high-class performer who is versatile on ground. He will be ridden confidently. Poet's Word must go close but could be pipped on the line and at the prices Roaring Lion looks a great each-way player as 3/1 or bigger might become available! Not every horse acts on the Knavesmire, but Poet’s Word is a pretty straightforward type with a long, useful stride that should be perfectly well served by the long York straight. One of the front two must win! We considered making Roaring Lion a Pacafi with a saver on Poet's Word.
Today's Pacafi: click here
The Racing Horse Recitation
Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.
The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.
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