The 2018 YORK EBOR FESTIVAL (Day 2)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

On Thursday 23rd August we have the second day of the four-day Ebor Festival from York and we will be covering all the big races with trends and betting advice. Before the Festival started we told members we expected to make a profit from our betting advice and Day 1 gave us the perfect start. We backed both Phoenix Of Spain at 6/1 and Persian Moon (who landed our each-way money at 11/2) to beat the favourite and then followed up with Roaring Lion at 3/1. We nominated the Exacta also and that paid £8.30. We have more interesting information today.

Even with a couple of negatives attached Lah Ti Dar 4.15 York is a Pacafi today.

Please be reminded the grid below represents the fate of the favourites in races at York over the last five years. These figures were accurate prior to Day 1 so in need of updating. 

NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

2yo:    32-104 for 31%  (-21.76)      6-26  for 23%   (-4.63)
3yo:    18-51  for 35%  (-10.47)     37-100 for 37%  (+31.82)
4yo+:   24-55  for 44%  (+20.61)     45-206 for 22%  (-25.56)
Total:  74-210 for 35%  (-11.62)     88-332 for 27%   (+1.63)

AND NOW FOR THE TRENDS...

1.55 York: Skybet Lowther Stakes (Group 2) 6f

15/16: Won over 5 or 6f before (94%)
15/16: Won at least once before (94%)
14/16: Had 2 or more previous runs that season (88%)
14/16: Not run at York before (88%)
14/16: Won by a January, February or March foal (88%)
13/16: Returned 11/2 or shorter (81%)
13/16: Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (81%)
12/16: Drawn in stall 4 or higher (75%)
12/16: Won last time out (75%)
..6/16: Winning favourites (38%)
..3/16: Trained by the Richard Hannon yard (19%)
..2/16: Trained by Mick Channon (13%)
..2/16: Trained by William Haggas (13%)


Threading (9/2) won the race in 2017
Note: 2008 renewal was run at Newmarket

PACE: The forecast is for a strong pace and a strongly contested lead could count against Flawless Jewel, who is expected to try and race close up. Initial thoughts are Angel's Hideaway would be suited by such a pace and if held up as expected!

TIMEFORM

This doesn't look the strongest Lowther on paper and ANGEL'S HIDEAWAY and Fairyland both stand out on form. The former got back on the up when running out a clear-cut winner of the Princess Margaret Stakes (Group 3) at Ascot last time so is just preferred. Flawless Jewel should have more to offer given her pedigree/connections.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: ANGEL'S HIDEAWAY 2/1  2: FAIRYLAND 2/1 (WINNER)  3: FLAWLESS JEWEL 12/1

Angel's Hideaway built on her promising Haydock victory when fourth in the Albany. No match for Pretty Polyanna at Newmarket but back to winning ways in Group 3 at Ascot last time. Looks to have the race run to suit but it could be close with Fairyland.

***

2.25 York: Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes (Class 2) 6f

16/16: Had 2 or more career runs (100%)
16/16: Winning distance 2 lengths or less (100%)
16/16: Had 1 or 2 career wins to their name (100%)
15/16: Foaled in February or later (94%)
11/16: Won from stall 10 or higher (69%)
11/16: Placed favourites (69%)
11/16: Foaled in February or March (69%)
/.6/16: Winning favourites (38%)
./3/16: Trained by Brian Meehan (19%)
./3/16: Trained by William Haggas (inc 3 of last 5 winners) (19%)
..2/16: Trained by Tim Easterby (13%)
..2/16: Trained by Kevin Ryan (13%)
..2/16: Ridden by Frankie Dettori (13%)
..0/16: Placed horses from stall 1 (0%)


Tangled (15/2) won the race in 2017 for Hannon, he won 2016 version also.
Note: 2008 renewal was run at Newmarket
2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 renewals were run at Doncaster

PACE: Once again we are expecting a strong pace and a strongly contested lead could count against Magical Wish and Oberyn Martell, who are expected to contest the front two placings. Such a hotly-contested pace as is on the cards here may be to the benefit of Kodyanna and Masaru who can be expected to be ridden from behind.

DRAW: The trends say high but the figures could be misleading...

TIMEFORM

KODYANNA has improved with each race to date and holds the strongest form credentials in this field. Already successful at this course, she is taken to add another victory to her tally. There are plenty of dangers however, with He'zanarab, Celebrity Dancer and Fanaar of particular interest.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: FANAAR 10/1 (general 21.08)  2: HE'ZANARAB 7/1 (general)  3: MASURU 6/1 (Betfair)

Fanaar has improved with each outing and lost little in defeat when second at Yarmouth (6f, good to firm) 14 days ago. Remains capable of better and blinkers now applied. Fast pace up front and draw could help him play late. William Haggas, who won the race three times between 2013 and 2015, Richard Hannon has won the last two. These two trainers could occupy the 1-2-3

***

3.00 York: Clipper Logisitics Handicap Stakes (Class 2) 1m

14/15: Won 2 or more times before (93%)
13/15: Winning distance of 2 lengths or less (87%)
12/15: Aged 3 or 4yo (80%)
12/15: Returned 15/2 or bigger (80%)
11/15: Ran at Ascot (4), Sandown (2), Goodwood (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out (73%)
11/15: Won from stall 12 or lower (73%)
10/15: Carried 9st or less (67%)
10/15: Had 4 or more runs already that season (67%)
10/15: Unplaced last time out (67%)
..2/15: Won by the Hills (Barry/Charlie) stable (13%)
..1/15: Winning favourites (6%)


Flaming Spear (10/1) won the race in 2017

PACE: Yet again a strong pace looks guaranteed. Of those forecasted with a better chance, Sharja Bridge and Afaak could be the most susceptible in a race in which competition for the lead looks plentiful. A good pace may suit Hors De Combat and Seniority who can be expected to be ridden with restraint.

DRAW BIAS: Against high numbers Seniority who can be expected to be ridden with restraint.

TIMEFORM

The vote goes to AFAAK, who has followed his C&D victory at the Dante meeting with rock-solid efforts in a couple of major handicaps. He remains on a feasible mark and a strongly-run race back at this trip on fast ground equates to ideal circumstances. Firmament should make a bold bid to repeat his 2016 victory in this race, while Kynren, Seniority and Sharja Bridge all have plenty going for them.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: FIRMAMENT 15/2 (Bet365 22.40)  2: KYNREN 8/1 (general)  3: SEA FOX 22/1 (general)

The Racing Horse accepts we have nominated a 6yo and does not tick all the boxes from our trends but this horse is ready to win a big Class 2 Handicap. The gelding is winless since landing this race in 2016 but he was a major eye-catcher when seventh in the big 1m Glorious Goodwood handicap won by Seniority. It is our opinion had he a trouble free run he would have won, the same applies today...

***

3.35 York: Darley Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1) 1m3f188y

17/17: Aged 3 (11) or 4 (6) yo (100%)
16/17: Drawn in stall 4 or higher (94%)
16/17: Won over at least 1m2f before (94%)
15/17: Had at least 3 previous wins to their name (88%)
14/17: Placed in the top 3 last time out (82%)
14/17: Placed favourites (82%)
13/17: Priced 7/2 or shorter (76%)
13/17: Had 3 or more runs already that season (76%)
12/17: Previous Group 1 winners (71%)
16/24: Winners won over the same distance (67%)
11/17: Won over 1m4f before (65%)
15/24: Won on the going (63%)
11/24: Winning favourites (46%)
10/24: Winners had won a Group 1 race (42%)
..7/17: Winning favourites (41%)
..7/17: Ran in that season’s Epsom Oaks (2 winners) (41%)
..8/24: Top rated winners(33%)
..8/24: Unrated  winners were unrated (33%)
..7/24: Winners won a Group 1 race in same season (29%)
..6/24: Course winners (25%)
..4/17: Trained by Aidan O’Brien (24%)
..3/17: Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (Won it 8 times in all) (18%)
..2/17: Trained by Jim Bolger (12%)


25/1 has been the highest winning SP.
1/4 has been the lowest winning SP.


Enable (1/4) won the race in 2017
Note: 2008 renewal was run at Newmarket

PACE: There is a chance of a pace burnout early, and Laurens is one who could suffer as a result. A hotly-contested pace as is on the cards here may be to the benefit of Sea Of Class who is likely to make a challenge late. There is no draw bias.

TIMEFORM

Whilst a couple of 3yos make plenty of appeal it may pay to take a chance on last year's runner-up CORONET. A winner of the Group 2 Middleton Stakes on return, she wasn't at her best when third in the King George at Ascot but is expected to be seen in a much better light back against her own sex. Irish Oaks heroine Sea of Class and the highly admirable Laurens are both highly respected also.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: SEA OF CLASS 11/8 (general 23.01)  2: CORONET 6/1 (general)  3: MAGIC WAND 13/2 (general).

Sea Of Class exuded class when cruising alongside and going past Epsom Oaks winner Forever Together in the Irish equivalent at the Curragh when Bye Bye Baby was fourth and Ribblesdale Stakes heroine Magic Wand only fifth. Proven over the trip, she looks the one to be on. Coronet is the pick of the older generation after chasing home her stablemate Enable in this contest 12 months ago. She will probably struggle to concede 9lb to Sea Of Class and we will spend the evening whether to nominate as a Pacafi. We do not think  Laurens can win this race against the two mentioned...

***

  Today's Pacafi: click here

The Racing Horse Recitation

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

~

The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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