The 2018 YORK EBOR FESTIVAL (Day 3)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

On Friday 24th August we have the third of the four-day Ebor Festival from York and we will be covering all the big races with trends and betting advice. The use of our trends is proving to be very exciting and profitable.

Before Day 1 we supplied relevant figures and said to our members: "It might be worth noting who are the top trainers at the course so far in 2018, if you do not back them then perhaps it makes sense to use a saver on them." We named Richard Fahey and Mark Johnston (see post). Today, Fahey had a 33/1 winner with Red Balloons (paid £43.00) on the Tote and Johnston had a 20/1 winner with Poet's Society. With our trends we also found two more winners including the £8.10 Exacta in the Yorkshire Oaks. We do not use the word luck but Firmament should also have won the Clipper Logisitics Hancdicap.

Please be reminded the grid below represents the fate of the favourites in races at York over the last five years. These figures were accurate prior to Day 1 so in need of updating. 

NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

2yo:    32-104 for 31%  (-21.76)      6-26  for 23%   (-4.63)
3yo:    18-51  for 35%  (-10.47)     37-100 for 37%  (+31.82)
4yo+:   24-55  for 44%  (+20.61)     45-206 for 22%  (-25.56)
Total:  74-210 for 35%  (-11.62)     88-332 for 27%   (+1.63)

And now for the trends...

2.25 York:  Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup (Group 2) 2m88y

12/13: Won on the going (92%)
12/14: Priced 8/1 or shorter (86%)
12/14: Had 4 or more career wins (86%)
12/14: Didn’t win last time out (86%)
11/14: Won over 1m6f or further before (79%)
10/14: Raced 3 or more times that season (71%)
10/14: Favourites placed (71%)
10/14: Finished in the top 4 last time out (71%)
..9/14: Won a Listed or better class race before (64%)
..8/14: Aged 4 or 5yo (57%)
..8/14: Ran at York before (6 won) (57%)
..6/13: Won over the distance (46%)
..6/13: Won on the course (46%)
..4/13: Winning favourites (31%)
..3/14: Ridden by Frankie Dettori (21%)
..2/13: Already won a Group 2 race (15%)
..1/13: Top rated (8%)
..1/13: Unrated winner (8%)
..0/14: Winners from stall 1 (0%)

6/5 was the lowest winning SP and 16/1 has been the highest winning SP.

Montaly (16/1) won the race in 2017
Note: The 2008 renewal was run at Newbury

TIMEFORM

It's difficult to look beyond Stradivarius, who underlined his status as the best stayer in the business when landing the Goodwood Cup last time. John Gosden's charge should have little trouble in adding this prize to his Cup-race haul and, in the process, collect the new £1m stayers' bonus. The admirable Red Verdon gets the nod for forecast purposes ahead of Desert Skyline and Idaho.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: STRADIVARIUS at 2/5 (WINNER)  2: RED VERDON 9/1  3: IDAHO 12/1 (3rd).

Stradivarius is unbeaten in 3 starts this season, landing the Yorkshire Cup and Ascot Gold Cup prior to reaffirming his status as the undisputed top stayer at Goodwood. Trends are not needed for this race and hard to oppose.

***

3.00 York: Al Basti Equiworld Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) 6f

15/15: Won just 1-2 times before (100%)
15/15: Raced within the last 6 weeks (100%)
12/15: Returned 8/1 or shorter (80%)
12/15: Finished in the top 3 last time out (80%)
10/15: Won just once before (67%)
10/15: Foaled in March or later (67%)
10/15: Won over 6f before (67%)
..9/15: Came from the top 3 in the betting (60%)
..3/15: Trained by Kevin Ryan (20%)
..3/15: Trained by William Haggas (20%)
..2/15: Winning favourites (13%)


Sands Of Mali (14/1) won the race in 2017

TIMEFORM

SPACE TRAVELLER looked potentially smart when landing a couple of minor events last month and can take this step up in class in his stride. Richard Fahey's charge may have most to fear from Emaraaty Ana, who was behind Chuck Willis at Newbury but still looked green on that occasion and should be more street-wise this time. The Irish Rover and Shine So Bright are others to consider.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: SHINE SO BRIGHT 4/1 (3rd)  2: SPACE TRAVELLER 5/1  3: THE IRISH ROVER 9/2

Shine So Bright's Nottingham debut success was full of promise and has since acquitted himself well in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot and Richmond Stakes at Goodwood. Must go close and looks an each-way banker (9 runners).

***

3.35 York: Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1) 5f

14/16: Finished in the top 5 last time out (88%)
14/16: Won over 5f before (88%)
14/16: Came from stall 11 or lower (88%)
13/16: Had an official rating of 108 or more (81%)
20/25: Won over the distance (80%)
12/16: Favourites to finish in the top 4 (75%)
12/16: Ran at the course before (75%)
11/16: Previous Group race winners (69%)
17/25: Won on the going (68%)
..7/16: Ran at Goodwood last time out (inc 6 of last 8) (44%)
..9/25: Unrated winners (last time in 2007) (36%)
..9/25: Already won a Group 1 race (36%)
..7/25: Winning favourites (1 was a joint favourite) (28%)
..7/25: Previously won at the course (28%)
..4/16: Winning favourites (25%)
..6/25: Already won a Group 1 race in same season (24%)
..2/16: Ran at Sandown last time out (13%)
..2/16: Placed horses from stall 1 (3rd in 2003 & 2012) (13%)
..3/25: Top rated winners (12%)


4/9 has been the lowest winning SP an 100/1 has been the highest.
Marsha (8/1) won the race in 2017

TIMEFORM

Providing he remains calm during the preliminaries, BATTAASH can exact revenge on his Royal Ascot conqueror Blue Point and, in the process, banish memories of his defeat in this contest last year when his pre-race antics proved costly. So impressive at Goodwood 3 weeks ago, Battaash will simply be too hot to handle if he puts his best foot forward. Blue Point and Mabs Cross can fill the places.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: BATTAASH 8/11  2: BLUE POINT 9/2 (3rd)  3: MABS CROSS 18/1 (2nd)

Battaash was reluctant to load when fourth in this contest 12 months ago but he overcame a tardy start to win the Temple Stakes this term before finishing second to Ascot specialist Blue Point in the King's Stand and then winning the King George in style at Goodwood. If his mind is on the job at hand, he wins! Is there value at 8/11, we just do not know! After the Goodwood win jockey Jim Crowley told us: "We know how to manage him now and I can't wait for York. The Nunthorpe would be perfect." We are considering him as a Pacafi, if we offered 10/11 we would jump on!

Good betting always comes down to an appreciation of value and the discipline required to capitalise on that, and any analysis of a race - however much or little it is based on evidence - should seek to identify horses whose chances are out of kilter with their odds.

***

  Today's Pacafi: click here

The Racing Horse Recitation

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

~

The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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