The 2018 YORK EBOR FESTIVAL (Day 4)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

On Saturday 25th August we have the final day of the four-day Ebor Festival from York and we will be covering all the big races with trends and betting advice. It looks as though the rain has missed York so our advice will be based on good or good to firm ground.

Please be reminded the grid below represents the fate of the favourites in races at York over the last five years. These figures were accurate prior to Day 1 so in need of updating. 

NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

2yo:    32-104 for 31%  (-21.76)      6-26  for 23%   (-4.63)
3yo:    18-51  for 35%  (-10.47)     37-100 for 37%  (+31.82)
4yo+:   24-55  for 44%  (+20.61)     45-206 for 22%  (-25.56)
Total:  74-210 for 35%  (-11.62)     88-332 for 27%   (+1.63)

And now for the trends...

1.50 York:  Sky Bet Strensall Stakes (Group 3) 1m208y

15/15: Won over at least a mile before (100%)
15/15: Won at least twice in the their career (100%)
14/15: Had between 2 and 4 runs already that season (93%)
12/15: Aged 4 or 5yo (80%)
11/15: Won over a mile before (73%)
..7/11: Won on the going (64%)
..7/15: Won by Godolphin (47%)
..5/11: Top rated (45%)
..6/15: Winning favourites (1 joint) (40%)
..4/11: Distance winners (36%)
..4/11: Course winners (36%)
..4/15: Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (27%)
..4/15: Ridden by Frankie Dettori (27%)
..4/15: Won at York before (27%)
..3/11: Won at same level or better (27%)
..1/11: Unrated winner (in 2005). (9%)


Evens has been the lowest winning SP and 9/1 has been the highest.


Mustashry (5/2 fav) won the race in 2017
Note: The 2009 running was a dead-heat
 

TIMEFORM

LORD GLITTERS has taken his form up a notch this term and ran another cracker when third in Sussex Stakes last time. He looks the one to beat in the opener. Last year's victor Mustashry is much respected and should be spot on after his successful Sandown reappearence last month, whilst Seniority has already scored 3 times this season and has to enter calculations on his return to pattern company.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: MUSTASHRY 9/2 (2nd)  2: SENIORITY 9/1  3: THREADING 9/1

Mustashry is a very smart colt who took this event 12 months ago and arrives on back of winning return in Sandown listed race (10f) last month. Certain to run a place at the very least so each-way to nothing material with just 9 runners.

***

2.25 York: Sky Bet Melrose Stakes Handicap (Class 2) 1m6f

13/15: Not raced at York before
13/15: Had 4 or more runs that season
11/15: Won carrying 9st or less
11/15: Won over 1m4f or further
11/15: Returned 9/1 or shorter
11/15: Had a top 5 finish last time out
..9/15: Drawn in stall 8 or lower
..4/15: Winning favourites (1 co)
..2/15: Ridden by Jamie Spencer


Secret Advisor (5/1 fav) won the race in 2017

TIMEFORM

SUPERNOVA still doesn't look the finished article, for all he is maturing quickly, and with this step up in trip likely to bring about further improvement, he may be up to completing the hat-trick. Making Miracles, Corgi and Berkshire Blue are a trio of others to consider in this valuable handicap.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: GHOSTWATCH 14/1 (WINNER)  2: SUPERNOVA 6/1 (2nd)  3: MEKONG 15/2 (4th) Exacta paid £101.30 and we nearly landed a £1,000 Trifecta beaten a neck for third place!

Ghostwatch has improved upped in trip this term, winning maiden at Wolverhampton and handicap at Sandown. Heavily backed and sporting cheekpieces for the first time at Sandown and he was in the perfect position to challenge off an ordinary gallop, but simply could not find the change of gear needed to reel in the front-running winner. A stronger pace would have suited better and he gets that in this race. Big price!

***

3.00 York: Sky Bet City of York Stakes (Listed) 7f

14/15: Failed to win last time out
14/15: Aged 5yo or younger
13/15: Drawn in stalls 4 to 8 (inc)
12/15: Priced 7/1 or shorter
11/15: Finished in the top 5 last time out
11/15: Never run at York before
11/15: Winning distance 1 length or less
10/15: Had 4 or more runs that season
..6/15: Winning favourites (1 joint)
..2/15: Won by Andrew Balding
..2/15: Won by Sir Michael Stoute
..1/15: Placed horses from stall 1


Talaayeb (9/1) won the race in 2017

TIMEFORM

EXPERT EYE confirmed the form shown in the Jersey with an excellent second in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes at Goodwood at the beginning of this month, and he looks the one to beat back at this level. Suedois has hit top form again so commands plenty of respect, while Donjuan Triumphant shouldn't be ignored after running a big race in the Lennox Stakes.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: EXPERT EYE 6/4 (WINNER)  2: SUEDOIS 10/3  3: DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT 11/1

The whole field has won over this trip but a number have been earning place money this term without reaching the winner's circle. Most are exposed whereas Expert Eye continues to give the impression he's more to offer having been brought back to form by the patient skills of Michael Stoute. He drops in both class and trip, and it should provide him with an ideal confidence boost before he returns to the top table. Looks very hard to beat and only Suedois can lower his colours!

***

3.40 York: Sky Bet Ebor Heritage Handicap (Class 2) 1m6f

16/16: Carried 9st 4lbs or less (100%)
15/16: Aged 6yo or younger (94%)
13/16: Won from a double-figure stall (81%)
13/16: Won over at least 1m4f before (81%)
12/16: Carried 9st 1lbs or less (75%)
11/16: Aged either 4 or 5yo (69%)
11/16: Winning Distance – 1 length or less (69%)
..9/16: Had 3 or more runs already that season (56%)
..8/16: Unplaced favourites (50%)
..7/16: Ran at York before (44%)
..5/16: Ran at Ascot last time out (31%)
..5/16: Won last time out (31%)
..4/16: Irish-trained winners (4 of the last 9) (25%)
..4/16: Ran at Goodwood last time out (25%)
..3/16: Ran at Galway last time out (19%)
..2/16: Ridden by Jamie Spencer (13%)
..2/16: Trained by Luca Cumani (13%)
..2/16: Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2011, third 2013) (13%)
..1/16: Winning favourites (6%)


Just one winning favourite since 1999


Trainer Luca Cumani won the race in 1999, 2004 & 2007
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1980, 1991 & 1996
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 22/1

TIMEFORM

Marco Botti fields two credible candidates in CROWNED EAGLE and Dylan Mouth, particularly the former who was just edged out by the smart Hamada here in May. He again went down all guns blazing at Haydock last time and earns the vote. With stamina concerns surrounding Teodoro, Irish raiders Sea The Lion and Stratum are feared most. Blakeney Point and last year's winner Nakeeta merit respect, too.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: STRATUM 7/2   2: WHISKEY SOUR 7/1  3: PLATITUDE 28/1

Stratum is a close-coupled gelding and a useful handicapper, Won his maiden at Windsor (by 8 lengths from Capton) in 2016 then also won valuable 16-runner event at Newbury last time by 3 lengths from Kloud Gate. Stays 2½m and acts on Polytrack, good to firm and heavy going.

***

  Today's Pacafi: click here

The Racing Horse Recitation

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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