Racing Trends at Sandown (1 September 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers more racing trends and betting advice for Sandown, Chester and Beverley this Saturday. On this page we will show the trends at Sandown but first we look at some interesting figures that have relevance to the meeting. We are going to show how the favourites fared in each age-group and in non-handicaps and handicaps, the top trainers and the top jockeys at the course for 2018. If you remember we found a 33/1 and a 20/1 winner at the York Ebor Festival last week through this portal, apart from a number of great winners through the trends themselves:

NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

2yo:    43-91  for 47%  (+5.50)       4-10  for 40%   (+1.25)
3yo:    19-49  for 39%  (-1.47)      75-198 for 38%   (+8.61)
4yo+:   15-38  for 39%  (+0.05)      37-101 for 37%  (+12.95)
Total:  77-178 for 43%  (+4.09)     116-309 for 38%  (+22.88)

Top Trainers at Sandown for 2018

John Gosden:     7 winners from 22 runners for 32%   (-2.23)
Richard Hannon:  6 winners from 36 runners for 17%   (+0.50)
Michael Stoute:  5 winners from 15 runners for 33%  (+11.41)
Clive Cox:       4 winners from 16 runners for 25%   (-5.69)
Hughie Morrison: 3 winners from  8 runners for 38%   (+2.75)

Top Jockeys at Sandown for 2018

Ryan Moore:    9 winners from 26 rides for 35%   (+7.66)
Fran Berry:    6 winners from 23 rides for 26%  (+31.00) 
Jim Crowley:   6 winners from 37 rides for 16%  (+11.25)
William Buick: 5 winners from 25 rides for 20%   (+0.30) 
James Doyle:   5 winners from 30 rides for 17%   (-7.25)

2.25 Sandown: Best Odds Guaranteed at 188Bet Handicap (Class 2) 1m2f7y

13/16: Ran at Haydock, York, Newmarket or Goodwood last time (81%)
13/16: Had 4 or more runs that season (81%)
11/16: Unplaced favourites (69%)
10/16: Winning distance 1 length or less (63%)
10/16: Won 3 or more times before (63%)
..9/16: Aged 4yo (56%)
..8/16: Ran at Sandown before (4 won) (50%)
..8/16: Carried 9st 0lbs or more (50%)
..7/16: Returned a double-figure price (44%)
..6/16: Won last time out (38%)
..3/16: Winning favourites (1 joint) (19%)
..2/16: Trained by Luca Cumani (13%)
..2/16: Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (13%)

The going is expected to be good to soft with good in places for this meeting.

The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9.5/1

Saeed bin Suroor has a strike-rate of 23% with horses running between 7f and up to 10f since the start of the 2013 season and trains Duabi Horizon. He has the same strike-rate in late season since the start of the 2013 season also.

William Buick has a 25% strike-rate when riding prominently (Not So Sleepy) in a race that could pay to be near the pace..

Timeform View

David Menuisier saddled the winner of this race last year and can repeat the dose with HISTORY WRITER, who did the job well when opening his account here prior to catching the eye at Newmarket. This step up in trip promises to help unlock further improvement and he gets the nod ahead of the progressive Red Force One. Almoreb is also considered, along with Communique and Mountain Angel.

The Racing Horese Verdict

1: MOUNTAIN ANGEL 8/1 (2nd)  2: RED FORCE ONE 8/1  3: COMMUNIQUE 7/1

Mountain Angel finished third over 1m here two starts ago and he is one to note on his debut over this trip. Better than every when making winning return in 19-runner Ascot handicap (1m) in May then creditable efforts in defeat off this mark here and at Haydock since and great claims if coping with the trip.

***

The Atalanta Stakes is a race that was formerly run on Sandown’s Variety Club Day, it was upgraded from Listed to Group 3 status in 2012.

3.00 Sandwon: 188Bet Casino Atalanta Stakes (Group 3) 1m14y

12/13: Winners already won over the distance (92%)
14/16: Had 3 or more runs that season (88%)
11/13: Won on the going (85%)
13/16: Won over a mile before (81%)
12/16: Priced 9/2 or shorter (75%)
12/16: Winning distance 1 ¼ or less (75%)
11/16: Aged 3yo (69%)
11/16: Placed last time out (69%)
11/16: Won 3 or more times before (69%)
11/16: Won a Listed or Group class race (69%)
10/16: Rated between 98 to 108 (63%)
..7/14: Top rate winners (50%)
..6/16: Won last time out (38%)
..6/16: Winning favourites (38%)
..5/16: Ran at Ascot last time out (31%)
..4/16: Ran at Sandown before (25%)
..4/16: Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (25%)
..3/14: Winners won at same level or better (22%)
..2/14: Course winners (14%)

2013 was a Dead Heat

12/1 has been the highest winning SP whilst 4/6 the lowest over the past 13 years, the average SP over the past 11 years is 5/1.

John Gosden has a 23% strike-rate at Sandown since the start of the 2014 season and shows a £22.15 profit with horses off the track for over a year since the start of the 2013 season.

Timeform View

Few fillies in training boast a better pedigree than VERACIOUS, who has acquitted herself well in Group 1 company this year, including when third in the Nassau at Glorious Goodwood. Back down in class/trip here and with the promise of better to come, she will prove hard to beat. Laugh Aloud is entitled to need the run following a lengthy layoff but is nevertheless feared most ahead of Awesometank.

The Racing Horese Verdict

1: VERACIOUS 10/11 (WINNER)  2: LAUGH ALOUD 5/1  3: WINTER LIGHTNING 12/1 (3rd)

Lengthy filly who is a half-sister to several winners, including high-class 1m-1¼m winner Mutakayyef (by Sea The Stars), smart 6f winner Intrinsic (by Oasis Dream) and smart 8.3f-1¼m winner Intimation (by Dubawi). Dam is a 7f winner (including as a 2yo) with smart form. Won maiden at Newmarket (by 4 lengths from Winter Lightning) in 2017. Was 5/1, shaped well when 2 lengths third of 6 to Wild Illusion in Nassau Stakes at Goodwood last time, taking strong hold though still in contention over 1f out: stays 1¼m and likely to progress further.

***

We now look at the Solario Stakes and a race named after a 1920’s racehorse, that later went on to become a leading sire. Established in 1947 as a Listed race, it was upgraded to Group 3 status in 1986.

3.35 Sandown: 1888Bet Solario Stakes (Group 3) 7f16y

15/16: Never raced at Sandown before (94%)
15/16: Won at least one race before (94%)
15/16: Won over 6 or 7f before (94%)
13/16: Foaled in January, February or March (81%)
11/16: Placed favourites (69%)
11/16: Had 2 or more previous runs (69%)
..9/13: Winners already won over the same distance (69%)
10/16: Won last time out (63%)
..8/13: Winners were unrated (62%)
..8/16: Won over 7f before (50%)
..8/16: Ran at Newmarket last time out (50%)
..6/16: Winning favourites (38%)
..4/13: Won on the going previously (31%)
..4/16: Won by trainer John Gosden (25%)
..1/13: Top rated winner (8%)
..1/13: Course winner (8%)
..0/13: Winners had already won at the same level or better (0%)

In the last 13 years 8/1 has been the highest winning SP and 2/7 the lowest. The average SP is 3/1

Masar (11/8 fav) won the race 12 months ago

Martyn Meade shows a profit of £22.64 when having just one runner at a Flat meeting since the start of the 2013 season (saddles Confiding)

Ryan Moore has a 23% strike-rate at Sandown since the start of the 2013 season and he rides Watan.

Frankie Dettori has a strike-rate of 38% on favourites since the start of the 2013 season and he rides Too Darn Hot.

Timeform View

TOO DARN HOT oozed star potential when landing a maiden in good style here last month and several big-race entries, including the Dewhurst, would suggest that the Dubawi colt is expected to take this step up in class in his stride. The promising Watan is marginally preferred to Confiding and Arthur Kitt for forecast purposes.

The Racing Horese Verdict

1: TOO DARN HOT 11/10 (WINNER)  2: WATAN 7/1  3: CONFIDING 6/1 (3rd)

Too Darn Hot has a terrific pedigreee and lived up to his name when landing a maiden by 7 lengths on debut here (1m, good to soft) last month. Holds a raft of fancy entries and he's clearly a very bright prospect.

***

  Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

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