Racing Trends at Beverley & Chester (1 September 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers more racing trends and betting advice for Beverley and Chester this Saturday:

2.45 Beverley: William Hill  Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) 5f

13/14: Winning distance 1 length or less (93%)
13/14: Had 3 or more runs that season (93%)
12/14: Won over 5f before (86%)
12/14: Unplaced last time out (86%)
12/14: Won 3 or more times before (86%)
..9/12: Winners came from stalls 1-4 (inc) (75%)
10/14: Won a Listed or Group race before (71%
10/14: Placed favourites (71%)
..6/10: Winners came from stalls 1 or 2 (60%)
..8/14: Ran at Beverley before (5 won) (57%)
..4/14: Aged 3yo (29%)
..3/14: Ridden by Tom Eaves (21%)
..3/14: Trained by Bryan Smart (21%)
..2/14: Trained by Ian Semple (14%)
..2/14: Winning favourites (14%)
..0/12: Winners from a double-figure draw (0%)

Take Cover at 3/1f won the race 12 months ago

The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2

Along with the 5 furlongs at Chester, the 5 furlongs at Beverley is probably the biggest and best known draw bias in the country. Quite simply low drawn runners at Beverley over 5 furlongs have a massive advantage. This distance at the track is uphill all the way so definitely takes some getting particularly when its soft (good to firm today). Looking at today's field there is every chance of a pace burnout early, and Take Cover is one who could suffer as a result. We are not considering that one as part of the result. A hotly-contested pace is on the cards and it may be to the benefit of Mr Lupton, who although is drawn 10, is likely to make a challenge late so nullify his poor draw.

TIMEFORM

TAKE COVER was no match for the best around in the Nunthorpe, but he's a force to be reckoned with at listed level so is taken to win this race for a second year running. Final Venture and Mr Lupton look the main protagonists, though improving 3-y-o Elnadim Star shouldn't be taken lightly, either.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: MYTHMAKER 8/1 (2nd)  2: MR LUPTON 5/1  3: FINAL VENTURE 7/2

I'm very happy with Mythmaker. He drops back to five, but always shows plenty of speed in his races over six, he's got a good draw and there's plenty of pace in there - Bryan Smart

Mr Lupton couldn't get into the Nunthorpe - he never had a go at them - but he's been in good form since and we're happy with him. It's not the best of draws but we'll have a go - Richard Fahey

The Racing Horse believes one of the two above will win but small preference for Mythmaker because of the perfect draw

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2.05 Chester: Foxy Bingo Handicap (Class 2) 7f 122y

14/14: Won over at least 7f before (100%)
13/14: Raced within the last 4 weeks (93%)
11/14: Rated between 83-96 (79%)
11/14: Carried 8st 13lbs or less in weight (79%)
11/14: Raced at Chester before (79%)
11/14: Aged 6yo or younger (79%)
..9/14: Came from outside the top 3 in the betting (64%)
..8/14: Unplaced last time out (57%)
..6/14: Drawn between stalls 11-14 (inc) (43%)
..6/14: Returned a double-figure price (43%)
..5/14: Aged 3yo (36%)
..5/14: Ran at Chester last time out (36%)
..3/14: Winning favourites (21%)
..3/14: Won last time out (21%)
..2/14: Trained by Mark Brisbourne (14%)
..2/14: Trained by Andrew Balding (14%)
..2/14: Trained by David Evans (14%)


Penwortham won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/1

Once again a strongly contested lead could count against Muntadab, who is expected to try and race close up. A proliferation of possible pace-forcers could set things up for those coming from further back.

TIMEFORM

DAIRA PRINCE ran below expectations at Sandown last time but he's been freshened up since and, from a good draw, looks worth another chance as he'd looked a handicapper going places when winning his first 2 outings this season. Lake Volta will likely be able to lead from the 2 box and should make a bold bid, while fellow prominent racer Muntadab has already gone close over C&D this term.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: SHADY MCCOY 7/1  2: DAIRA PRINCE 7/1  3: LAKE VOLTA 11/2 (3rd)

Shady Mccoy has won 2 big-field 7f handicaps in 2017. Fine second in Bunbury Cup at Newmarket in July and another good effort when second at Ascot latest. This place not certain to suit his hold-up style, however he is one who will benefit from a strong pace and looks a certainty for a place given a kind trip.

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3.15 Chester: Foxy Bingo Chester Stakes (Listed Race) 1m5f89y

15/15: Won over 1m4f or further before (100%)
12/15: Drawn in stall 7 or lower (80%)
12/15: Won 3 or more times before (80%)
12/15: Aged 3, 4 or 5yo (80%)
12/15: Winning distance 1 ½ lengths or less (80%)
11/15: Returned 5/1 or bigger (73%)
..9/15: Ran at either Pontefract, Ascot or Goodwood last time out (60%)
..9/15: Carried 9st 3lbs or less (60%)
..9/15: Placed favourites (60%)
..9/15: Placed last time out (60%)
..6/15: Ran at Chester before (2 won) (40%)
..4/15: Won last time out (27%)
..2/15: Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (13%)
..2/15: Winning favourite (13%)
..1/15: Winners from stall 1 (7%)

Cosmelli could be expected to race prominently. Of those in the front half of the betting forecast, Hochfeld might be well positioned in a slowly run affair. Of the better-fancied horses, Here And Now is most likely to be ridden furthest from the pace.

My Reward won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

TIMEFORM

HERE AND NOW ran away with a competitive 2m York handicap at the Ebor meeting and has solid claims now tackling a listed race at a track where he's previously gone well, for all it's a completely different test. Duretto was beaten less than a length in the Princess of Wales's Stakes at Newmarket and looks the main threat ahead of Hochfeld.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: DURETTO 5/6 (WINNER)  2: HERE AND NOW 11/2  3: HOCHFIELD 11/2 (3rd)

Duretto won a similar event over shorter in the mud a year ago and not beaten far in the Princess of Wales's Stakes at Newmarket last time, keeping on. Return to this sort of trip will suit. Word of warning - he has not actually won on good ground or faster but from 8 runs on good or good to firm he has been second 3 times and third 3 times. If he got beat a head some might blame the ground. We tried to find a different winner but failed...

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

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