AUTUMN WAR 5.20 Goodwood at 6/5

netbet.co.uk Novice Stakes

Pedigree: 70,000gns Y; second foal; dam French 1m2f 2yo winner, half-sister to 2m Group 3 winner Capal Garmon and Group-placed 1m1f winner Elite Guest out of 1m4f winning half-sister to Oaks/Leger winner Sun Princess

THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE

Optimum Ground: Good to soft (10) 
Optimum Distance: 1m2f (10)
Jockey Booking: Callum Shepherd (8)
Trainer Form: 3-15 for 20% (10) 
RPR: 78 (9)
The Racing Horse Composite: 47/50

Main Danger: Cogital

 Won at Nottingham the hard way

Autumn War was a promising third on last month's Chelmsford debut yet sent off at generous odds in view of that at Nottingham in a Class 5 Maiden. There he was slow to break and then taken around the outside of the field to press the leader before taking over coming to the last furlong. He then faced a stern challenge from the favourite, but showed a decent attitude to hold on showing he should have a future in handicap company. After the race jockey Callum Shepherd told us: "He did well to finish so close on debut after being slowly away and he will improve again from today. He found more when the second came to him and the slight ease in conditions suited him well."

More to come and conditions to suit

The Goodwood ground conditions will suit him more this time around, the current going is good to soft to soft in places. He is also bred to be suited by this longer trip and if we add the jockeys comments about improvement to the mix he must be hard to beat today! He looks to have size and scope and a good attitude and it will not be the penalty that beats him. 

Trainer form

Relatively speaking the trainer Charlie Hills had a good August winning 12 times from 82 runners for 15% and a level-stake profit of +19.98, he already has two more winners for September. After Ascot, he has won more prize money at Goodwood than any other course but he only strikes at 8% which would normally bother us. Jockey Callum Shepherd has impressed us on a couple of rides recently (though he went around the houses on this horse last time, facing the breeze) and when he combines with the trainer records 20-185 for 11% (+18.20). This year they combine to score 9-74 for 12% (+7.95) and Shepherd is the top jockey for the trainer. The trainer runs three horses today at three different racecourses and the stable jockey goes to Goodwood to ride the Pacafi.

Of his rivals

Cogital is reasonably consistent in defeat in four outings, creditable fourth (off 82) in Sandown handicap upped to 1m2f when last seen in June but is beginning to look exposed. He has been gelded since and clearly has a good chance at the weights with the leading apprentice taking off a valuable 3lb though he might need further. Dono di Dio showed a bit of potential for Richard Hannon and has changed yards while Lzaaz has been finding 1m4f stretching his stamina.

Timeform

This should boil down to a straight fight between AUTUMN WAR and Cogital. Preference is for the former, who has a penalty to shoulder but looked potentially useful when landing a Nottingham maiden and should have more to offer now faced with a stiffer test. Lzaaz and Dono Di Dio can do battle for minor honours.

Value

This looks a two-horse race and we are banking on improvement for today's conditions nullifying the penalty. 6/5 must be on the right side of value and he should be more a 10/11 shot!

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