Pacafi (5 September 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

  FLORIA TOSCA 3.30 Bath at 6/5

University And Literary Club EBF Fillies' Handicap (1m3½f)

 .

Pedigree: 260,000gns Nkt Dec 17; 9th foal; half-sister to winners Angel Vision (7f/1m; RPR 99), Bohemian Dance (1m-1m4f GB/US; 90), Canonbury (10.3f; 78), Upper Street (1m2f AW; 71) and Isla Canela (1m2f); dam 1m2f-1m4f Group 1 winner (123), out of 1m4f Gr 1 winner

THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE

Optimum Ground: Good to firm (10) 
Optimum Distance: 1m4f (10)
Jockey Booking: Robert Winston (9)
Trainer Form: 11-55 for 20% (10) 
RPR: 83 (9)
The Racing Horse Composite: 48/50

Main Danger: Morning Beauty

 The most progressive

Class 4 Handicaps run on going close to concrete is not our preferred betting option but we like this progressive filly in the context of this race. Floria Tosca cost 260,000gns as a 2yo and is a half sister to several winners, including useful 7f/1m winner (stayed 1¼m) Angel Vision (by Oasis Dream) and useful 1m-1½m winner Bohemian Dance (by Dansili). The dam is a 1¼m-1½m winner (including twice winner of Yorkshire Oaks). Our bet looks progressive and didn't need to improve when winning a 7-runner handicap at Leicester last time by ½ length from Cheerfilly, having the run of race. She will stay this tough 1½m and acts on firm going. 

Of her rivals

Morning Beauty has won twice in recent weeks including over 1m5f here in July where she had only three opponents. She could potentially improve for first time cheekpieces after a couple of below-par efforts. Miss M gained a comfortable victory at Windsor in July before a disappointing run back there a week later.

Trainer in fine form

Luca Cumani has his horses in really good form. July and August show 11 winners from 55 runners for a big 20% for him. He enjoys sending his horses to Bath, they return figures of 29-126 for 23% (+0.47). Today the Pacafi is ridden by the competent Robert Winston, when he combines with the trainer they score 1-7 for 14%.

Timeform

 FLORIA TOSCA seems to be growing up now and this beautifully-bred filly can follow up her recent Leicester win. Miss M is feared most.

Value

This looks another two-horse race and we are on the progressive horse and must have value at 6/5. Bath is the only racecourse not to have watering facilities and therefore the going can get very fast, with a going description of firm not unusual. The run-in is uphill all the way and tends to suit galloping rather than the sharp type of horse. It is quite hard to win from the front at Bath, we appreciate our bet led all the way at Leicester last time but our view is Morning Beauty will lead and our Pacafi will take a sit in second and then hope to pass inside the furlong marker.

 The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

 4  Floria Tosca        2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.10   S/R  75%
 3  Autumn War          2.87  WIN   1.00  +1.87  +2.90   S/R  67%
 2  Gleeful (S)         2.37  LOSE  1.25  +0.12  +1.03   S/R  50%
 1  Veracious           1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.91   S/R 100%

September SELECTIONS: 4  WIN: 3  LOSE: 1  S/R: 75%  PROFIT: +4.10pts

(1411)       First or second: 75.00%

18  Never Do Nothing    1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +8.96   S/R  72%
17  Desert Frost        2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.31  +8.34   S/R  71%
16  Nick Lost           1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +7.03   S/R  69%
15  Lah Ti Dar          2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +8.03   S/R  73%
14  Collide             2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +7.03   S/R  71%
13  Over The Guns       2.20  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.78   S/R  69%
12  Gustav Klimt        3.00  LOSE  1.30  -1.30  +6.78   S/R  75%
11  Alhakmha            1.57  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +8.08   S/R  82%
10  Concello            2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +9.08   S/R  90%
 9  Beat That           1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +8.08   S/R  89%
 8  Restive Spirit      3.00  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +7.55   S/R  88%
 7  Beatboxer (R4)      2.00  WIN   1.00  +0.90  +6.05   S/R  86%
 6  Mutawaffer          1.83  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.15   S/R  83%
 5  Magnetic Charm      2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.31  +6.15   S/R 100%
 4  Willie John         2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.84   S/R 100%
 3  Battaash            2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +3.64   S/R 100%
 2  Royal Plaza         1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +2.39   S/R 100%
 1  Star Shield         2.67  WIN   1.00  +1.67  +1.67   S/R 100%

August SELECTIONS: 18  WIN: 13  LOSE: 5  S/R: 72%  PROFIT: +8.96pts

(111112111125411211)       First or second: 88.88%

19  Queen Medb          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.88   S/R  63%
18  L'Explora           1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +6.88   S/R  67%
17  Kuwait Station      2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +6.44   S/R  65%
16  Advanced Virgo      1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +4.94   S/R  63%  
15  Major Partnership   1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +4.22   S/R  60%
14  Raymond Tusk        2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  +3.49   S/R  58%
13  Hazapour            1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.74   S/R  54%
12  Wicklow Brave       1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.74   S/R  58%
11  Altra Vita          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.94   S/R  55% 
10  Inessa              1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.94   S/R  60%
 9  Wissahickon         3.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.14   S/R  55%
 8  Fox Coach           2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.14   S/R  63%
 7  Herculean           1.50  WIN   1.00  +0.50  +4.14   S/R  71%
 6  Thriving            2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +3.64   S/R  67%  
 5  Ballydun Oscar      1.67  WIN   2.00  +1.34  +2.54   S/R  60%
 4  Alsimsaam           2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.20   S/R  50%
 3  Altra Vita          1.80  WIN   2.00  +1.60  +2.20   S/R  67% 
 2  Construct (R4)      2.37  WIN   2.00  +2.60  +0.60   S/R  50%
 1  Forever Together    1.67  LOSE  2.00  -2.00  -2.00   S/R   0%

July SELECTIONS: 19  WIN: 12  LOSE: 7  S/R: 63%  PROFIT: +5.88pts

(211L111281313111112)       First or second: 78.95%

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *