Pacafi (11 September 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

  EQUILATERAL 3.45 Leicester at 8/13

EBF Stallions Prestwold Conditions Stakes (5f)

 .

Pedigree: First foal; dam unraced half-sister to 1m1f Group 1 winner Cityscape, 5f Group 2 winner Bated Breath and Listed-placed 1m winner Scuffle out of 7f Listed winner

THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE

Optimum Ground: Good (10) 
Optimum Distance: 5f (10)
Jockey Booking: Ryan Moore (10)
Trainer Form: 5-28 FOR 18% (10) 
OR & RPR: 103 & 120 (10)
The Racing Horse Composite: 50/50

Main Danger: Line Of Reason

 Conditions to suit

Charlie Hills 3yo colt Equilateral looked a sprinter of some ability when impressive on his 2yo debut a year ago. He did flop subsequently but then trounced the very useful Foxtrot Lady by eight lengths at Doncaster in May. He then found life tough in Group company since but tooday he is back in a Class 3 Conditions Stakes and just has the 8yo Line Of Reason to beat.

Still has time to make a Pattern-race sprinter

The Pacafi has been successful at 5f and 6f on good to firm and good to soft ground. He was beaten 7l behind Yafta at 5/1 when eighth of 10 on his latest outing in the Group 3 bet365 Hackwood Stakes at Newbury over 6f on good to firm in July. Interesting to note the colt retains an entry in the Derrinstown Stud Flying Five Stakes Group 1 on the 16 September so would have to win on the bridle to take up that engagement but that could happen! In any case it shows the regard the trainer has for him and he still has time to make up into a Pattern-race sprinter.

Trainer form looks better than average...

Despite a couple of high profile losers the trainer is doing as well as he has ever done recording 17 winners from 110 races for 15.45% and a level-stake profit of +15.51pts for August and September and worth reminding this trainer will never produce prolific figures! What encourages our bet further is his course statistics at Leicester where the trainer scores 25-109 for 23% (+10.02)

Of his rivals

Line Of Reason may not be quite as good as he once was, though was still fourth in a Listed race at Beverley last time when he didn't get much luck in-running. Sarshampla has a lot to find on these terms and will need a career best to be competitive.

Timeform

EQUILATERAL has failed to make his mark in Group company the last twice, but he remains a sprinter of considerable potential judged on his impressive reappearance victory at Doncaster and is hard to oppose down in class and trip here. Line of Reason is not short of ability, but will do well to trouble Equilateral on these terms, a remark which also applies to the filly Sarshampla.

Value

Surely the 8/13 is value but had we been a bookmaker we would not have offered 1/2. If our Pacafi is to win we would expect him to be backed into prices shorter than 1/2.

 The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

 9  Equilateral         1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +3.92   S/R  67%
 8  Carrie Des Champs   1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +3.30   S/R  63%
 7  Harry Angel         2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.77   S/R  57%
 6  Enable              1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  +3.77   S/R  67%
 5  Sextant             1.53  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.10   S/R  60%
 4  Floria Tosca        2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.10   S/R  75% 
 3  Autumn War          2.87  WIN   1.00  +1.87  +2.90   S/R  67%
 2  Gleeful (S)         2.37  LOSE  1.25  +0.12  +1.03   S/R  50%
 1  Veracious           1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.91   S/R 100%

September SELECTIONS: 9  WIN: 6  LOSE: 3  S/R: 67%  PROFIT: +3.92pts

(141121611)       First or second: 77.78%

18  Never Do Nothing    1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +8.96   S/R  72%
17  Desert Frost        2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.31  +8.34   S/R  71%
16  Nick Lost           1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +7.03   S/R  69%
15  Lah Ti Dar          2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +8.03   S/R  73%
14  Collide             2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +7.03   S/R  71%
13  Over The Guns       2.20  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.78   S/R  69%
12  Gustav Klimt        3.00  LOSE  1.30  -1.30  +6.78   S/R  75%
11  Alhakmha            1.57  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +8.08   S/R  82%
10  Concello            2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +9.08   S/R  90%
 9  Beat That           1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +8.08   S/R  89%
 8  Restive Spirit      3.00  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +7.55   S/R  88%
 7  Beatboxer (R4)      2.00  WIN   1.00  +0.90  +6.05   S/R  86%
 6  Mutawaffer          1.83  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.15   S/R  83%
 5  Magnetic Charm      2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.31  +6.15   S/R 100%
 4  Willie John         2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.84   S/R 100%
 3  Battaash            2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +3.64   S/R 100%
 2  Royal Plaza         1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +2.39   S/R 100%
 1  Star Shield         2.67  WIN   1.00  +1.67  +1.67   S/R 100%

August SELECTIONS: 18  WIN: 13  LOSE: 5  S/R: 72%  PROFIT: +8.96pts

(111112111125411211)       First or second: 88.88%

19  Queen Medb          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.88   S/R  63%
18  L'Explora           1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +6.88   S/R  67%
17  Kuwait Station      2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +6.44   S/R  65%
16  Advanced Virgo      1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +4.94   S/R  63%  
15  Major Partnership   1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +4.22   S/R  60%
14  Raymond Tusk        2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  +3.49   S/R  58%
13  Hazapour            1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.74   S/R  54%
12  Wicklow Brave       1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.74   S/R  58%
11  Altra Vita          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.94   S/R  55% 
10  Inessa              1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.94   S/R  60%
 9  Wissahickon         3.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.14   S/R  55%
 8  Fox Coach           2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.14   S/R  63%
 7  Herculean           1.50  WIN   1.00  +0.50  +4.14   S/R  71%
 6  Thriving            2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +3.64   S/R  67%  
 5  Ballydun Oscar      1.67  WIN   2.00  +1.34  +2.54   S/R  60%
 4  Alsimsaam           2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.20   S/R  50%
 3  Altra Vita          1.80  WIN   2.00  +1.60  +2.20   S/R  67% 
 2  Construct (R4)      2.37  WIN   2.00  +2.60  +0.60   S/R  50%
 1  Forever Together    1.67  LOSE  2.00  -2.00  -2.00   S/R   0%

July SELECTIONS: 19  WIN: 12  LOSE: 7  S/R: 63%  PROFIT: +5.88pts

(211L111281313111112)       First or second: 78.95%

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *