Pacafi (13 September 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

 PILASTER 3.00 Doncaster at 7/4

DFS Park Hill Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) (1m6½f)

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Pedigree: Sixth foal; closely related to 1m2f 2yo/11.4f winner Castellated (RPR 78), half-sister to 4 winners inc Windshear (1m-1m4f inc at 2; 113), Palisade (1m2f inc AW; 96) and Porcini (1m4f-2m inc AW; 89); dam 7f-1m2f winner (inc at 2/Listed; 107)

THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE

Optimum Ground: Good to soft (10) 
Optimum Distance: 1m6f (10)
Jockey Booking: Andrea Atzeni (10)
Trainer Form: 8-38 FOR 21% (10) 
OR & RPR: 106 & 114 (10)
The Racing Horse Composite: 50/50

Main Danger: Horseplay

The Pacafi and favourite is Roger Varian’s Pilaster, ridden by Andrea Atzeni. The 3yo daughter of Nathaniel has won all three races this season, most recently beating Maid Up by a short-head at Goodwood. To see our racing trends featuring this race please visit this page

 Cut above her rivals?

Seven of the last ten winners of the Park Hill went off at 5/1 or less, so it is reasonable to expect a fancied runner to score in 2018 and this year, the market leading duo cut a formidable pair for the remaining six fillies to aspire at. Pilaster could well be a cut above these if she continues an impressive rate of progression so far in the famous Cheveley Park colours. Roger Varian’s Nathaniel filly finished 7th on her only start as a 2yo, but is unbeaten in three races so far in 2018 and in her last two races, she has displayed a real touch of class which will carry her far if she continues to thrive on racing.

Progressing at a rate

Pilaster’s last three Racing Post Ratings (RPRs) read: 94, 101, 108, while her Topspeed figures across the same winning run read: 80, 91, 103. It’s clear to see she is going the right way and another similar step forward for this 1m6f contest should see her land a second Group success.

Horseplay has a bit to find

She gets a 10lb weight-for-age allowance against her main market rival, Horseplay, who scored an RPR of 111 and TS of 87 when finishing a respectable 4th behind the top notch and Arc-bound Sea Of Class in the Yorkshire Oaks last time out. There is a reason the older horses have to give weight to their youngers, but on theory of pure form-based ability, Horseplay does have a bit on her plate to give Pilaster the thick end of a stone and a beating, despite having a 3lb advantage on adjusted RPRs and considerably more experience.

Stamina is assured for Pilaster

Horseplay also needs to prove she gets the trip, over an additional two furlongs, while Pilaster has already won at this distance at Goodwood in early August, where she beat the very useful Maid Up, who has been supplemented to take her chance in the St Leger on Saturday. So for backers of Pilaster, stamina is assured – which is important.

Good to soft ground to suit and value secured!

Good to soft ground is a bit of an unknown, but Pilaster is a seemingly versatile and straightforward type of animal, so she is ticking all the boxes and besides her action suggests she needs a bit of cut to show her optimum. Her sire and the sire of her dam liked soft in the going title! We have taken the 7/4 and looks value if she continues to improve as promised...

 The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

10  Pilaster (S)        2.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.92   S/R  60%
 9  Equilateral         1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +3.92   S/R  67%
 8  Carrie Des Champs   1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +3.30   S/R  63%
 7  Harry Angel         2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.77   S/R  57%
 6  Enable              1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  +3.77   S/R  67%
 5  Sextant             1.53  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.10   S/R  60%
 4  Floria Tosca        2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.10   S/R  75% 
 3  Autumn War          2.87  WIN   1.00  +1.87  +2.90   S/R  67%
 2  Gleeful (S)         2.37  LOSE  1.25  +0.12  +1.03   S/R  50%
 1  Veracious           1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.91   S/R 100%

September SELECTIONS: 10  WIN: 6  LOSE: 4  S/R: 60%  PROFIT: +2.92pts

(1411216113)       First or second: 75.00%

18  Never Do Nothing    1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +8.96   S/R  72%
17  Desert Frost        2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.31  +8.34   S/R  71%
16  Nick Lost           1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +7.03   S/R  69%
15  Lah Ti Dar          2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +8.03   S/R  73%
14  Collide             2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +7.03   S/R  71%
13  Over The Guns       2.20  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.78   S/R  69%
12  Gustav Klimt        3.00  LOSE  1.30  -1.30  +6.78   S/R  75%
11  Alhakmha            1.57  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +8.08   S/R  82%
10  Concello            2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +9.08   S/R  90%
 9  Beat That           1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +8.08   S/R  89%
 8  Restive Spirit      3.00  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +7.55   S/R  88%
 7  Beatboxer (R4)      2.00  WIN   1.00  +0.90  +6.05   S/R  86%
 6  Mutawaffer          1.83  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.15   S/R  83%
 5  Magnetic Charm      2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.31  +6.15   S/R 100%
 4  Willie John         2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.84   S/R 100%
 3  Battaash            2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +3.64   S/R 100%
 2  Royal Plaza         1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +2.39   S/R 100%
 1  Star Shield         2.67  WIN   1.00  +1.67  +1.67   S/R 100%

August SELECTIONS: 18  WIN: 13  LOSE: 5  S/R: 72%  PROFIT: +8.96pts

(111112111125411211)       First or second: 88.88%

19  Queen Medb          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.88   S/R  63%
18  L'Explora           1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +6.88   S/R  67%
17  Kuwait Station      2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +6.44   S/R  65%
16  Advanced Virgo      1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +4.94   S/R  63%  
15  Major Partnership   1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +4.22   S/R  60%
14  Raymond Tusk        2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  +3.49   S/R  58%
13  Hazapour            1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.74   S/R  54%
12  Wicklow Brave       1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.74   S/R  58%
11  Altra Vita          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.94   S/R  55% 
10  Inessa              1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.94   S/R  60%
 9  Wissahickon         3.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.14   S/R  55%
 8  Fox Coach           2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.14   S/R  63%
 7  Herculean           1.50  WIN   1.00  +0.50  +4.14   S/R  71%
 6  Thriving            2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +3.64   S/R  67%  
 5  Ballydun Oscar      1.67  WIN   2.00  +1.34  +2.54   S/R  60%
 4  Alsimsaam           2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.20   S/R  50%
 3  Altra Vita          1.80  WIN   2.00  +1.60  +2.20   S/R  67% 
 2  Construct (R4)      2.37  WIN   2.00  +2.60  +0.60   S/R  50%
 1  Forever Together    1.67  LOSE  2.00  -2.00  -2.00   S/R   0%

July SELECTIONS: 19  WIN: 12  LOSE: 7  S/R: 63%  PROFIT: +5.88pts

(211L111281313111112)       First or second: 78.95%

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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