Racing Trends for Doncaster (13 September 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers more powerful racing trends alongside perceptive betting advice, this time for Doncaster. Our results this year have been nothing short of sensational and all the indications show our filtration/profiling really works!  To aid the process further we offer more valuable information in the shape of course statistics, where we look at the performance of the different age-groups in both handicap and non-handicap races. Finally we highlight the latest movers and shakers for the course in 2018. To ignore our figures is to carelessly invite negative influences to your bet. Numbers updated to 10 September 2018.

NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

2yo:    60-136 for 44%   (+3.02)    15-29  for 52%  (+15.07)
3yo:    52-120 for 43%   (-2.68)    68-198 for 34%   (+5.27)
4yo+:   20-56  for 36%   (-2.98)    70-287 for 24%  (-50.96)
Total: 132-312 for 42%   (-2.64)   153-514 for 30%  (-30.61)

Top Trainers at Doncaster for 2018

Richard Fahey:    9 winners from 56 runners for 16%  (+8.25)
Roger Varian:     8 winners from 21 runners for 38%  (+2.15)
Mark Johnston:    7 winners from 24 runners for 29%  (+8.25)
Saeed bin Suroor: 5 winners from 12 runners for 42%  (+7.35)
Hugo Palmer:      4 winners from 10 runners for 40%  (+0.37)

Top Jockeys at Doncaster for 2018

Andrea Atzeni:  9 winners from 31 rides for   29%   (-8.09)
Daniel Tudhope: 9 winners from 38  rides for  24%  (+11.00) 
P J McDonald:   5 winners from 40  rides for  14%  (-12.00)
David Nolan:    4 winners from  8  rides for  50%  (+25.25) 
Franny Norton:  4 winners from  9  rides for  44%   (+8.75)

doncaster racecourse

Doncaster Racecourse was redeveloped in 2005, however the racing surface remains virtually the same. It is a large pear shaped course of nearly two miles with a long four and a half furlong straight. There is a perfectly straight mile on which a lot of the races are run. The course is very flat and is probably one of the fairest in the country. 

The going is expected to be good to soft.

High numbers best on the straight course on soft going

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The Racing Horse looks at two more Group 2 races from Doncaster on Thursday. First we look at the May Hill and a race name after May Hill, a filly whose victories included the Park Hill Stakes in 1975. Established in 1976 as a Group 3 race, it was promoted to Group 2 status in 2003.

It might be wise to look for a last-time-out maiden winner (won 10 of the last 26 runnings despite being readily outnumbered, six of those won their maiden at Newmarket) or a filly which ran very well in the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes the previous month (six of the last 16 May Hill winners won or finished second in that Group 3 event). With last-time-out maiden winners faring so well, we should not be surprised that lightly-raced fillies are those to concentrate on. Going back to and including 1993, just four winners had raced more than three times but, arguably more significantly, 14 of the last 20 winners were having either their second or third start. 

With 2yos racing over a  mile, stamina plays a big issue with 19 of the last 21 winners having previously scored over at least seven furlongs beforehand.

2.25 Doncaster: William Hill May Hill Stakes (Group 2) 1m

15/16: Had 1 or 2 previous career wins (94%)
14/16: Won over 7f before (88%)
14/16: Had 2 or more previous career runs (88%)
14/16: Won by a February, March or April foal (88%)
10/12: Winners returned 4/1 or shorter  (83%)
..8/12: Unrated winners (67%)
10/16: Won last time out (63%)
..9/16: Ran at Newmarket last time out (56%)
..5/10: Winning favourites (50%)
..7/16: Drawn in stalls 1 or 2 (44%)
..6/14: Winning favourites (43%)
..6/16: Winning favourites (38%)
..4/14 Top Rated winners (29%)
..4/16: Won by a Godolphin-owned horse (25%)
..2/14: Previously won on the going (14%)
..2/16: Ridden by Frankie Dettori (13%)
..2/16: Trained by Richard Hannon (13%)
..2/16: Trained by John Gosden (13%)
..1/14: Distance winner (7%)
..1/14: Course winner (7%)
..0/14: Winners had won at the same level or better (0%)


14/1 has been the highest winning SP and 1/3 the lowest in the last 14 years. The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2.

Performance of the last 10 favourites: 1682112131

TIMEFORM

Perhaps not the strongest of Group 2s, though DUBAI BEAUTY did shape like a smart prospect when winning first-time up at Newmarket and can provide Saeed bin Suroor with a third win in this. Sand Share is another who impressed to make a winning debut and may emerge as the biggest threat ahead of Dutch Treat and Accordance.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:

1: PEACH TREE 5/1  2: FLEETING 12/1 (WINNER)  3: DUBAI BEAUTY 11/4

Peach Tree and Fleeting have to be respected after they finished second and third, respectively, in a Group 3 at the Curragh a couple of weeks ago. We found this race impossible to unravel and the trends conspired to contradict matters.  Peach Tree looks the pick of the Ballydoyle pair and is a token selection. Dubai Beauty and Sand Share had only one run each so not considered for win purposes though we imagine both to feature at some stage of the race. Apologies for vagueness! We have not placed a bet on this race.

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This race is named after an estate formerly owned by Anthony St.Leger the founder of the famous St Leger race. Established in 1839 it was originally restricted to 3yo fillies but in 1971 the race was opened to older fillies and mares.

The classic generation have won this race 10 times in the last 19 renewals. 4yos did well in the 1990s and only two mares 5yo+ have won since the race was opened up to elders in 1991 but as they were achieved in the last 14 years it is hard to treat them as a negative particularly as they would also be comprehensively outnumbered.

3.00 Doncaster: DFS Park Hill Stakes (Group 2) 1m6f132y

13/15: Aged 3 or 4yo (87%)
12/15: Returned 8/1 or shorter (80%)
11/15: Ran within the last 6 weeks (73%)
11/15: Drawn in stall 6 or lower (73%)
10/15: Came from the top 3 in the betting (67%)
10/15: Placed favourites (67%)
10/15: Won no more than 4 times before (67%)
..9/15: Ran at Doncaster before (60%)
..8/15: Previous Group winners (53%)
..7/14: Won on the going previously (50%)
..7/15: Won over at least 1m6f before (47%)
..6/14: Top Rated (43%)
..6/15: Irish bred (40%)
..5/15: Won last time out (33%)
..4/14: Winning favourites (1 was a co-favourite) (29%)
..4/14: Won at same level or better (29%)
..4/15: Won the Lilly Langtry (Goodwood) that season (27%)
..4/15: Raced at Goodwood last time out (27%)
..4/15: Winning favourites (27%)
..3/14: Distance winners (21%)
..3/14: Course winners (21%)
..3/15: Ridden by Frankie Dettori (20%)
..2/15: Ridden by Ryan Moore (13%)
..2/15: Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (13%)
..1/14: Unrated winner (in 2005) (7%)


28/1 has been the highest winning SP and 7/4 the lowest in the last 14 years.

Performance of the last 10 favourites: 2564112331

TIMEFORM

A tight renewal of the fillies' St Leger. HORSEPLAY seems sure to relish 1¾m and is taken to confirm Lancashire Oaks placings with God Given. Pilaster has a 3 lb penalty courtesy of her Lillie Langtry win at Glorious Goodwood but there's a good chance she has more to offer and she's another who is expected to be bang there.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:

1: PILASTER 7/4 (3rd)  2: HORSEPLAY 11/4 (2nd)  3: GOD GIVEN 6/1 (WINNER)

Pilaster is a lengthy filly, closely related to winner up to 11.4f Castellated (2yo1¼m winner, by Teofilo) and half-sister to several winners, including smart winner up to 1½m (stays 14.5f) Windshear (2yo 1m winner, by Hurricane Run) and useful 1¼m winner Palisade (by Fastnet Rock). Dam was a winner up to 1¼m (2yo 7f winner) who would have stayed 1¾m: smart form. Won minor events at Chelmsford in May and Kempton (by 6 lengths from Galmarley) in July. Improved massively and completed hat-trick in 12-runner Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood last time by short head from Maid Up, battling well to lead near line. Clearly stays 1¾m and open to further improvement. Looking at her racing gait she should enjoy the cut in the ground.

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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