Racing Trends for Doncaster (14 September 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

Of the two races we covered with our trends yesterday our second choice Fleeting won at 12/1 but surely our advice was better than that! For example we provided movers and shakers at the course showing Richard Fahey as the top trainer at Doncaster for 2018. He had Picture No Sound win at 20/1. We reported (ironically) Andrea Atzeni as top jockey at the course and he won later on Another Eclipse at 11/2. Although our Pacafi was beaten we did nominate those that made up the Trifecta which paid £45.80. More first class information!

The Racing Horse offers more powerful racing trends alongside perceptive betting advice, this time for Doncaster. Our results this year have been nothing short of sensational and all the indications show our filtration/profiling really works!  To aid the process further we offer more valuable information in the shape of course statistics, where we look at the performance of the different age-groups in both handicap and non-handicap races. Finally we highlight the latest movers and shakers for the course in 2018. To ignore our figures is to carelessly invite negative influences to your bet. Numbers updated to 13 September 2018.

NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

2yo:    61-137 for 45%   (+4.40)    15-30  for 50%  (+14.07)
3yo:    52-121 for 43%   (-3.68)    68-199 for 34%   (+4.27)
4yo+:   21-58  for 36%   (-1.98)    71-288 for 25%  (-49.71)
Total: 134-316 for 42%   (-1.27)   154-517 for 30%  (-31.36)

Top Trainers at Doncaster for 2018

Richard Fahey:    10 winners from 64 runners for 16% (+21.25)
Roger Varian:      8 winners from 23 runners for 35%  (+0.15)
Mark Johnston:     8 winners from 28 runners for 29%  (+9.25)
Saeed bin Suroor:  5 winners from 16 runners for 31%  (+3.35)
Hugo Palmer:       4 winners from 10 runners for 40%  (+0.37)

Top Jockeys at Doncaster for 2018

Andrea Atzeni:  10 winners from 39 rides for  26%  (-9.59)
Daniel Tudhope:  9 winners from 38 rides for  24% (+11.00)
James Doyle:     5 winners from 16 rides for  31%  (+2.75)
Jamie Spencer:   5 winners from 25 rides for  25%  (+0.67)
P J McDonald:    5 winners from 40 rides for  14% (-12.00)
David Nolan:     4 winners from  8 rides for  50% (+25.25) 
Franny Norton:   4 winners from 11 rides for  36%  (+6.75)

doncaster racecourse

Doncaster Racecourse was redeveloped in 2005, however the racing surface remains virtually the same. It is a large pear shaped course of nearly two miles with a long four and a half furlong straight. There is a perfectly straight mile on which a lot of the races are run. The course is very flat and is probably one of the fairest in the country. 

The going is expected to be good but with ease in the ground.

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This race is named after Sceptre, a filly that won four of the Classics including the St Leger Stakes. Originally contested over a mile, it was cut to 7 furlongs in 1993 and promoted from listed to Group 3 status in 2011.

1.50 Doncaster: Japan Racing Association Sceptre Stakes (Group 3) 7f6y

13/15: Never raced at Doncaster before (87%)
12/15: Won between 1-3 times before (80%)
11/15: Raced within the last 6 weeks (73%)
10/15: Won over 7f before (67%)
10/15: Drawn in stalls 3-7 (inc) (67%)
..9/14: Previously won on the going (64%)
..9/14: Distance winners (64%)
..8/15: Placed favourites (53%)
..7/15: Came from the top three in the betting (47%)
..7/15: Returned 4/1 or shorter (47%)
..7/15: Won last time out (47%)
..4/15: Winning favourites (27%)
..3/15: Won by the Hills stable (20%)
..3/15: Ridden by Ryan Moore (20%)
..2/14: Course winner (14%)
..2/14: Top Rated winners (14%)
..2/15: Trained by Roger Varian (2 of last 3 runnings) (13%)
..2/15: Irish-trained winners (13%)
..1/14: Won at same level or better (7%)
..0/15: Winners from stall 1 or 2 (0%)

25/1 has been the highest winning SP and 5/6 the lowest over the past 14 years, and in the last 10 years the average winning SP is around 10/1

Music Box (8/1) won the race in 2017

Performance of the last 10 favourites: 4742553114

TIMEFORM

ANNA NERIUM made it 3-4 over this trip when landing a Group 3 at Goodwood last time and, with conditions again in her favour, she is taken to strike again. Laugh Aloud is entitled to come on for her recent comeback spin, but Dancing Star and Dan's Dream both returned to form when going close last time and may emerge as the main dangers. Ellthea is also worthy of consideration.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:

1: ANNA NERIUM 5/1  2: DANCING STAR 9/2 (WINNER)  3: LAUGH ALOUD 10/3

Anna Nerium resumed winning ways back at this trip in the Supreme Stakes at Goodwood (heavy) recently, producing a career-best in the process. Looks the pick of the Hannon trio and a sound each-way bet. Win or at least go close!

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Originally known as the Norfolk Stakes and established in 1967, the name was changed in 1973 to honour Flying Childers an 18th Century racehorse bred near Doncaster. It was downgraded from Group 1 to Group 2 status in 1979.

2.25 Doncaster: Wainwrights Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) 5f3y

14/15: Raced in the last 4 weeks (93%)
13/14: Distance winners (93%)
13/15: Placed horses from stall 2 or 3 (87%)
12/15: Drawn in stall 7 or lower (80%)
11/15: Won 1-2 times before (73%)
11/15: Winning distance – 1 length or less (73%)
11/15: Won at Listed or Group class before (73%)
10/15: Returned 5/1 or shorter (67%)
..8/15: Placed favourites (53%)
..7/15: Winning favourites (47%)
..6/14: Previously won on the going (43%)
..6/14: Winning favourites (43%)
..6/15: Foaled in April (40%)
..6/15: Ran at York last time (40%)
..5/15: Trained by the Richard Hannon yard (33%)
..5/15: Ridden by Frankie Dettori (33%)
..4/14: Top Rated winners (27%)
..4/15: Won last time out (27%)
..1/15: Irish-trained winners (7%)
..1/15: Winners from stall 1 (7%)
..0/14: Course winners (0%)


18/1 has been the highest winning SP and 5/4 the lowest in the last 14 years. The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

Heartache (6/4) won the race in 2017

Performance of the last 10 favourites: 2915511190

TIMEFORM

RUMBLE INTHEJUNGLE is taken to go one better in this race than his sire, who was runner-up in the 2012 renewal. Richard Spencer's charge looked a smart sprinter in the making when landing the Molecomb at Goodwood and that form is comfortably the best on offer here. Legends of War needs considering on the back of his effort in the Gimcrack, but Gossamer Wings may be the one for the forecast.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:

1: LEGENDS OF WAR 6/1  2: GOSSAMER WINGS 10/1 (3rd)  3: SHUMOOKHI 9/1

Legends Of War took a significant step forward when runner-up in the Gimcrack at York (6f, good to firm) 3 weeks ago. This drop to the minimum trip is unlikely to be an issue and is certain to go well.

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3.00 Doncaster: William Hill Mallard Handicap (Class 2) 1m6f115y

15/15: Drawn in stall 11 or lower (100%)
14/15: Aged 5yo or younger (93%)
14/15: Won at least twice before (93%)
12/15: Drawn in stall 8 or lower (80%)
11/15: Won over 1m4f or further before (73%)
11/15: Aged 3 or 4yo (73%)
10/15: Winning distance 1 length or more (67%)
10/15: Carried 8st 10lbs or more (67%)
..8/15: Had 5 or more runs that season (53%)
..7/15: Ran at Doncaster before (5 won) (47%)
..6/15: Ran at York last time out (40%)
..6/15: Winning favourites (40%)
..5/15: Returned a double-figure price (33%)
..5/15: Won last time out (33%)
..4/15: Ridden by Jamie Spencer (27%)
..2/15: Trained by Michael Bell (13%)


Time To Study (11/8 fav) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

TIMEFORM

The vote goes to SPEEDO BOY, who did well to finish as close as he did when third in a valuable York handicap last time and the booking of Ryan Moore adds to his appeal. Austrian School looks rock-solid and is next on the list ahead of Walton Street, who is unexposed over this sort of trip. On To Victory could go well at a price with conditions in his favour and Ben Vrackie is also of interest.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:

1: SPEEDO BOY 8/1  2: TITUS 9/1  3: BEN VRACKIE 6/1

Speedo Boy was a narrow winner upped to 2m at Ascot in July and further step forward when third in a big-field at York (16.2f, good to firm). Nudged up 2 lb for that, but unexposed as a stayer and he merits huge respect.

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Originally known as the Doncaster Gold Cup and established in 1766 this race is 10 years older than the St Leger Stakes. For the first 10 years it was held at Cantley Common and then moved to Doncaster Racecourse. The distance was 4 miles but was shortened to 2m 5f in 1825 and to 2m 2f in 1891. This race is recognised as the final leg of the Stayers’ Triple Crown, preceded by the Gold Cup and the Goodwood Cup.

3.35 Doncaster: Doncaster Cup Stakes (Group 2) 2m1f197y

15/17: Won over 1m6f or further before (88%)
15/17: Had 2 or more runs that season (88%)
12/14: Previously won on the going (86%)
14/17: Returned 11/2 or shorter (82%)
13/17: Drawn in stall 4 or higher (76%)
12/17: Ran at Doncaster before (6 won) (71%)
12/17: Placed last time out (71%)
11/17: Won 5 or more times before (65%)
11/17: Aged 6yo or younger (65%)
10/17: Ran at York last time out (59%)
10/17: Previous Group race winners (59%)
10/17: Winning distance 1 or more lengths (59%)
..8/17: Unplaced favourites (47%)
..6/14: Course winners (43%)
..6/17: Won last time out (35%)
..6/17: Winning favourites (35%)
..4/14: Winning favourites (29%)
..4/14: Top Rated winners (29%)
..3/14: Distance winners (21%)
..3/17: Trained in Ireland (18%)
..2/14: Unrated winners (last in 2008) (14%)

14/1 has been the highest winning SP and evens the lowest in the last 14 years. The average SP over the past 10 years is 10/3

Desert Skyline (2/1) won the race in 2017
Sheikhzayedroad won the race in 2016
Pallasator won the race in 2015

Performance of the last 10 favourites: 2211252431

TIMEFORM

THOMAS HOBSON chased home Desert Skyline in this race last year and should be spot-on in his bid to go one better this time round, having performed with credit over an inadequate trip when returning from a 2-month break at the Curragh recently. Sheikhzayedroad, who was just behind the selection 12 months ago, is feared most, albeit his stablemate Algometer is also accorded respect.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT:

1: LORD YEATS 12/1  2: SAUNTER 8/1  3: THOMAS HOBSON 2/1 (WINNER)

Lord Yeats is a rangy gelding and a smart performer. He won a handicap at York and a Listed race at Newmarket (by neck from Second Step) in 2017. Fifth in the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier at Longchamp (5½ lengths behind Vazirabad) in May. Off 3 months and 50/1, shaped as if still in good form when 8¼ lengths eleventh of 20 to Muntahaa in Ebor (Handicap) at York last time though unsuited by the conditions. Stays 15f and able to race prominently. Interesting at the price!

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

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