Racing Trends for Doncaster (15 September 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers more powerful racing trends alongside perceptive betting advice, this time for Doncaster. Our results this year have been nothing short of sensational and all the indications show our filtration/profiling really works!  To aid the process further we offer more valuable information in the shape of course statistics, where we look at the performance of the different age-groups in both handicap and non-handicap races. Finally we highlight the latest movers and shakers for the course in 2018. To ignore our figures is to carelessly invite negative influences to your bet.

Numbers updated to prior to today's racing. They are worth a quick look - the data will have relevance!.

NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

2yo:    61-139 for 44%   (+2.40)    15-31  for 48%  (+13.07)
3yo:    52-122 for 43%   (-4.68)    68-200 for 34%   (+3.27)
4yo+:   21-58  for 36%   (-1.98)    71-290 for 24%  (-51.71)
Total: 134-319 for 42%   (-4.27)   154-521 for 30%  (-35.36)

Top Trainers at Doncaster for 2018

Richard Fahey:    10 winners from 64 runners for 16% (+21.25)
Roger Varian:      8 winners from 25 runners for 32%  (-1.84)
Mark Johnston:     8 winners from 31 runners for 26%  (+6.25)
Saeed bin Suroor:  6 winners from 17 runners for 35%  (+8.85)
Ian Williams:      5 winners from 14 runners for 36% (+12.62)
Hugo Palmer:       4 winners from 10 runners for 40%  (+0.37)

ALERT: Hugo Palmer for September is 11-30 for 37% (+15.62)

Top Jockeys at Doncaster for 2018

Daniel Tudhope: 10 winners from 39 rides for  26% (+15.00)
Andrea Atzeni:  10 winners from 45 rides for  22% (-15.59)
James Doyle:     5 winners from 22 rides for  23%  (-3.25)
Jamie Spencer:   5 winners from 25 rides for  25%  (+0.61)
P J McDonald:    5 winners from 40 rides for  13% (-12.00)
David Nolan:     4 winners from  8 rides for  50% (+25.25) 
Franny Norton:   4 winners from 11 rides for  36%  (+6.75)

doncaster racecourse

Doncaster Racecourse was redeveloped in 2005, however the racing surface remains virtually the same. It is a large pear shaped course of nearly two miles with a long four and a half furlong straight. There is a perfectly straight mile on which a lot of the races are run. The course is very flat and is probably one of the fairest in the country. It definitely suits a horse that can gallop. 

The Racing Horse looks at four races from Doncaster on Saturday and once again expect to make a profit given the soundness/quality of our rationale. Even if our members disagree with our conclusions the data submitted makes us better informed.

1.50 Doncaster: William Hill Portland Handicap (Class 2) 5f140y

15/16: Carried 8st 12lbs or more (94%)
14/16: Won over 6f before (88%)
13/16: Ran 5 or more times that season (81%)
13/16: Came from a double-figure stall (81%)
12/16: Returned a double-figure price (75%)
12/16: Winner rated between 95 and 101 (75%)
11/16: Won 4 or more times in their career (69%)
11/16: Ran at Doncaster previously (69%)
10/16: Winning distance – 1 length or less (63%)
..8/16: Unplaced Favourites (50%)
..8/16: Placed in their last race (50%)
..7/16: Winners aged 5yo (inc 7 of last 10 years) (44%)
..6/16: Raced in that season’s Great St Wilfrid (Ripon) (38%)
..4/16: Raced at Ripon last time out (25%)
..4/16: Winning favourites (25%)
..3/16: Won by the Kevin Ryan yard (19%)
..3/16: Won last time out (19%)

Spring Loaded (12/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1

Of those forecasted with a better chance, Muscika and Encrypted could be the most susceptible in a race in which competition for the lead looks plentiful. Such a hotly-contested pace as is on the cards here may be to the benefit of a closer like Open Wide.

TIMEFORM

Things didn't go DAKOTA GOLD's way in the Thirsk handicap won by Muscika and, with a strong pace guaranteed here, he is taken to strike. Stablemate Holmeswood has also slipped to an attractive mark and looks a big threat with Silvestre De Sousa again in the hot-seat, having finished third under the champion jockey at York last time. Dougan should be on the premises and Open Wide also has claims.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: OPEN WIDE 14/1  2: MARNIE JAMES 25/1 (Non-Runner)  3: GOLDEN APOLLO 12/1

Open Wide got back on the scoresheet at Salisbury in June and recent efforts in competitive handicaps at Windsor and Ascot have been solid. First-time eyeshields added to usual blinkers and merits respect especially at this price. Amanda Perrett told us: "He ran a nice race when second at Ascot last time when he just bumped into one. Andrea Atzeni gets on well with him and with the drying ground in his favour we're very much looking forward to it."

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This race was established in 1978, contested over 7 furlongs and given Listed Race status. It was upgraded to Group 3 status in 1986 and extended to a mile in 1993. In 2003 the race was shortened back to 7 furlongs and a year later it was upgraded to Group 2 status.

2.25 Doncaster: Park Stakes (Group 2) 7f

13/15: Winning distance – 1 length or less (87%)
13/15: Ran 3 or more times that season (87%)
13/15:  Won 3 or more times before (87%)
12/15: Won over 7f before (80%)
12/15: Won a Group race previously (80%)
12/15: Returned  7/1 or shorter (80%)
11/14: Distance winners (79%)
11/15: Placed favourites (73%)
11/15: Aged 4yo or older (73%)
10/15: Ran at Goodwood (5), Newbury (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out (67%)
10/15: Unplaced in their most recent race (67%)
..8/14: Won previously on the going (57%)
..6/15: Ran at Doncaster before (40%)
..5/14: Previously won a Group 2 race (36%)
....3/9:  Irish-trained winners (33%)
..3/14: Course winners (21%)
..3/15: Winning favourites (20%)
..2/14: Top Rated winners (14%)
..2/15: Won by a previous winner of the race (13%)
..2/15: Trained by Jeremy Noseda (13%)

Raydiance could be expected to race prominently. Of those in the front half of the betting forecast, Mustashry might be well positioned in a slowly run affair. Of the better-fancied horses, Breton Rock is most likely to be ridden furthest from the pace.


16/1 has been the highest winning SP and 4/6 the shortest in the last 14 years. The average SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

Performance of the last 10 favourites: 3512341252

TIMEFORM

This looks an open renewal of this Group 2, but preference is for MUSTASHRY, who was supplemented for this race on Monday and has the best form on offer. Admittedly, none of that form has come over 7f, but he has shown enough speed at times to suggest he would have no problem dropping back in trip. The consistent pair Oh This Is Us and Breton Rock (2016 winner) have each-way appeal.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: D'BAI 9/2 (2nd)  2: OH THIS IS US 6/1 (3rd)  3: MUSTASHRY 3/1 (WINNER). 

D'Bai has been better than ever this season, runner-up in listed event at Windsor before narrow winner of Group 3 at Haydock (7f). Has won at 1m and run very well at 6f but this trip is his optimum and return to it is a significant plus after recent fair runs at shorter in France. A repeat of peak 7f form, including when winning that Group 3 at Haydock in June, would see him bang there. Could manage only fourth when favourite for a Group 3 at Deauville latest, so need to put a line through that run. Chance of a win but a great each-way bet!

There have been some terrible rides at this week at Doncaster and Ryan Moore looked awful, absolutely awful on Oh This Is Us. The Trefecta paid £38.50 had you permed the nominations.

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This race was established in 1823, open to both sexes and run over a mile. The distance was shortened to 6 furlongs in 1870 and then extended to 7 furlongs in 1962 and was closed to fillies and mares in 1988, they now have their own race called the Park Stakes  (see above). Looks a great race for favourites!

3.00 Doncaster: Champagne Stakes (Group 2) 7f

10/10: Favourites finished in the first 3 (100%)
16/17: Returned  8/1 or shorter (94%)
15/17: Won 1 or 2 times previously (88%)
12/14: Distance winners (88%)
14/17: Favourites placed (82%)
14/17: Won over 7f before (82%)
13/17: Won by a February or March foal (76%)
13/17: Finished third or better last time out (76%)
10/17: Won last time out (59%)
..8/14: Winners were unrated (57%)
..9/17: Ran Sandown, Newbury, York or Curragh lto (53%)
..8/17: Raced 3 or more times that season (47%)
..6/14: Winning favourites (1 was a joint favourite) (43%)
..6/14: Won on the going (43%)
..7/17: Winning favourites (41%)
..4/17: Won by Godolphin (24%)
..3/14: Top Rated horse (21%)
..3/17: Ridden by Frankie Dettori (18%)
..3/17: Won by the Richard Hannon yard (18%)
..2/17: Won by the Mark Johnston yard (12%)
..2/17: Won by the Charlie Appleby yard (12%)
..2/17: Won by the Saeed Bin Suroor yard (12%)
..2/17: Winners from stall 1 (12%)
..1/14: Course winner (7%)
..1/14: Already won a Group 2 race (7%)

Cardini could be expected to race prominently. Of those in the front half of the betting forecast, Too Darn Hot might be well positioned in a slowly run affair. Of the better-fancied horses, Dark Vision is most likely to be ridden furthest from the pace.

16/1 has been the highest winning SP and 5/6 the lowest. The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/4.

The 2005 renewal was a dead-heat

Performance of the last 10 favourites: 3111123112

TIMEFORM

TOO DARN HOT was deeply impressive in the Solario 2 weeks ago and it's hard to see past him if turning up in similar form, particularly as Vintage winner Dark Vision has to concede him 3 lb. Phoenix of Spain did it well in the Acomb at York's Ebor meeting and is another who should have a say in what looks a very strong renewal of this Group 2.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: TOO DARN HOT 8/15 (WINNER)  2: DARK VISION 5/1  3: PHEONIX OF SPAIN 8/1

All the rage before hacking up on 1m Sandown debut last month and confirmed he's a colt of huge potential when pulling 4 lengths clear in Solario there (7f) 23 days later. Can't oppose. Too Darn Hot is a full brother to So Mi Dar who won four times at 1m and 1m 2f including a Group 3 race. Successful at 7f and 1m on good and good to soft ground. Won on his latest outing when evens favourite in the Group 3 188Bet Solario Stakes at Sandown over 7f (good) earlier this month, beating Arthur Kitt by 4l. Has won twice at Sandown this season. With perfect conditions perfect this is our PACAFI (there will not be a rationale to accompany the bet).

Exacta paid £4.20 and CSF £4.46. WINNING PACAFI!

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The St Leger Stakes was established in 1776 and is the oldest of the five British classic races, as well as that run over the longest distance of the five. It is also recognised as the third and final leg of the Triple Crown – 2,000 Guineas, The Derby, St Leger for Colts and 1,000 Guineas, The Oaks, St Leger for Fillies.

3.35 Doncaster: William Hill St Leger Stakes (Group 1) 1m6f132y

15/16: Had 2 or 3 previous career wins (94%)
14/16: Placed in the top 3 last time out (88%)
13/16: Placed favourites (81%)
13/16: Never raced at Doncaster before (81%)
12/16: Returned 8/1 or shorter (75%)
12/16: Won a Group race before (75%)
12/16: Had 4 or 5 previous runs that season (75%)
11/16: Won over at least 1m3f before (69%)
10/16: Never raced over 1m6f or further before (63%)
10/16: Winning distance of 1 length or more (63%)
10/16: Drawn in stall 5 or higher (63%)
..9/16: Officially rated 109 to 115 (56%)
..9/16: Won last time out (56%)
13/24: Won on the going (54%)
12/24: Winning favourites (1 was a joint favourite) (50%)
..7/16: Winning favourites (1 joint) (44%)
..6/16: Ran in the Great Voltigeur last time out (2 won it) (38%)
..6/24: Top Rated winners (25%)
..4/16: USA-bred winners (25%)
..4/16: Trained by Aidan O’Brien (25%)
..5/24: Previously course winners (21%)
..3/16: Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (2 won it) (19%)
..3/16: Trained by John Gosden (19%)
..3/16: Won by a Godolphin-owned horse (19%)
..3/16: Ridden by Frankie Dettori (5 wins in total) (19%)
..2/16: Ridden by William Buick (13%)
..2/16: Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (13%)
..2/16: Winners from stall 1 (13%)
..2/24: Won at the same level (8%)
..0/24: Winners already won over the same distance (0%)

Of those forecasted with a better chance, Dee Ex Bee could be most vulnerable in a race in which competition for the lead looks to be fierce. A really fast pace is on the cards here.

40/1 has been the highest winning SP and 10/11 the lowest. The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 15/2

Godolphin have won the race 6 times
Aidan O’Brien has trained 5 winners of the race

Performance of the last 10 favourites: 1U21123627

TIMEFORM

LAH TI DAR looked top class when turning a listed race into a procession at York last month and she can keep her unbeaten record intact and give John Gosden a fourth win in 12 years in the final British Classic. Kew Gardens ran a big race under his Group 1-penalty behind Old Persian in the Voltigeur when left with plenty to do and has obvious claims. Loxley is preferred of the Godolphin pair.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: LAH TI DAR 15/8 (2nd)  2: KEW GARDENS 3/1 (WINNER)  3: LOXLEY 9/1

We considered Lah Ti Dar as a Pacafi with a saver on Kew Gardens but declined. The former is a good-topped, attractive filly and the fourth foal and sister to the very smart winner up to 10.4f So Mi Dar (2yo 8.3f winner) and half-sister to smart winner up to 1¼m De Treville (2yo 7f winner, by Oasis Dream). Dam is a 1¼m-12.5f winner, half-sister to top-class winner up to 1½m Rewilding. Lah Ti Dar won a 14-runner maiden at Newbury in April by 6 lengths from Arcadian Cat and 6-runner listed race at Newmarket in May by 3¼ lengths from Expressiy. She was then 4/6 and most impressive when completing the hat-trick in 7-runner listed race at York last time by 10 lengths from Light of Joy, leading 3f out and staying on strongly before eased late on. Will stay beyond 1½m and a most exciting prospect.

John Gosden, trainer: "Frankie got off after her York win and said she's got to run in the St Leger. He said she could have kept going another three furlongs, but we'll see. She missed a great deal of the season as she was sick, but she comes here fresh. She won in good style at York and she's pleased us since. I'm realistic, as she's had only three races, but the track and long straight will suit her." Simon Marsh, racing manager to Lord Lloyd-Webber: "You never know if they will or won't stay. She's going into the unknown and only the race will tell us if we've made the correct decision. Hopefully she'll stay and run a really big race."

The Exacta paid £10.50 and the CSF £7.99

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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