Pacafi (19 September 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

 WADILSAFA 3.15 Sandown at 6/5

Smarkets Fortune Stakes (Listed Race) (1m)

 .

Pedigree: 4th foal; half-brother to 7f winners Talaayeb (at 2/Group 3; RPR 111) & Muntazah (at 2; 109); dam 1m (AW 2yo) and 1m1f winner/Park Hill second (112), half-sister to 1,000 Guineas winner Ghanaati out of 7f-1m2f winning half-sister to Nashwan

THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE


Trainer Form: 2-8 for 25%    (10)
OR: 110                      (10)
Optimum Ground: Good         (10) 
Optimum Distance: 1m/1m1f    (10)
Jockey Booking: Jim Crowley  (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (50)

Danger: Archetype 11/2

Group horse

Wadilsafa is a rangy, attractive Frankel colt. He bounced back from a disappointing Royal Ascot performance in the Hampton Court when romping home in handicap company at York last time. Owen Burrows' charge is expected to take this step up in grade in his stride now he has the benefit of a confidence-boosting victory behind him. The way he bounded clear of some useful handicappers on the Knavesmire proved to us he was better than Listed company.

Choke out but still won

Worth reminding ourselves prior to that Class 2 Handicap race he was very heavily backed even after being keen to post and then again throughout the race plus he, led all the way so theoretically did it the hardest way. He had been held up in the Hampton Court Stakes at Ascot. After the race jockey Dane O'Neill told us: " He is a nice horse. He's a little bit immature, he just wants to get on with it because he's got that big stride. He was happier doing what he was there in front and he lengthened well to the line. This is a nice track for him as he was able to use his stride from half a mile down." On that basis Sandown should suit because it is very much a galloping course with the four furlong run-in being up a steep hill, and therefore you need horses that fully stay the distance to win at Sandown. Our bet looks a 1m2f type in the making.

He has an entry in the Shadwell Joel Stakes (Group 2) at the end of this month so needs to win this with a bit to spare first.

Trainer form

There are two better jockeys in the race than our rider. Jim Crowley's strike rate on favourites since the start of the 2013 season is 35% and if he keeps things simple can nullify their advantage. Trainer Owen Burrows has his horses running nicely, his last eight runners have finished 12243321 and some at bigger prices!

Of his rivals

Red Starlight is another stepping up from handicaps to consider after dotting up at Lingfield. As a 3yo filly, she gets all the allowances even though she’s already won three times this year. We expect there is more to come from Hathal now he has a pipe-opener at Salisbury behind him. The danger however looks to be Archetype. He has only run once in the UK this year but is a dual course winner and he makes more appeal than Queen of Time and Zhui Feng, who faces a stiff task under top weight. Hors De Combat’s only win in the last four years came at Meydan but he’s a tough sort who will likely run his race again. 

Timeform

WADILSAFA produced a smart effort when brushing his rivals aside in a York handicap in July and, with the promise of even better to come from this superbly-bred colt, he will take the world of beating. Archetype, whose form figures here read 211, gets the nod for forecast purposes ahead of the progressive filly Red Starlight.

Value

Our Pacafi looks every bit a Group horse and our 6/5 must be value, if we were a bookmaker we would offer 8/11. We have to respect Archetype hence a saver at the prices, if the filly turns both over that will surprise us though she has every right to go close!

Just thinking of the pace map, it could be Zhui Feng (106) grabs the lead from our Pacafi (110) though we know Silvestre de Sousa is brilliant from the front (Archetype 102) and Flying North has early pace also. So, the filly Red Starlight (99) might have to out-battle her male rivals to win and that looks a big ask on top of our rationale...

 The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

14  Wadilsafa (S)       2.20  WIN   1.20  +1.00  +6.27   S/R  71% 
13  Kamikaze Lord       1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +5.27   S/R  69% 
12  Too Darn Hot        1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +4.55   S/R  67%
11  Sangarius           2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +4.02   S/R  64%
10  Pilaster (S)        2.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.92   S/R  60%
 9  Equilateral         1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +3.92   S/R  67%
 8  Carrie Des Champs   1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +3.30   S/R  63%
 7  Harry Angel         2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.77   S/R  57%
 6  Enable              1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  +3.77   S/R  67%
 5  Sextant             1.53  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.10   S/R  60%
 4  Floria Tosca        2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.10   S/R  75% 
 3  Autumn War          2.87  WIN   1.00  +1.87  +2.90   S/R  67%
 2  Gleeful (S)         2.37  LOSE  1.25  +0.12  +1.03   S/R  50%
 1  Veracious           1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.91   S/R 100%

September SELECTIONS: 14  WIN: 10  LOSE: 4  S/R: 71%  PROFIT: +6.27pts

(14112161131111)       FINISHED First or Second: 78.57%

18  Never Do Nothing    1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +8.96   S/R  72%
17  Desert Frost        2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.31  +8.34   S/R  71%
16  Nick Lost           1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +7.03   S/R  69%
15  Lah Ti Dar          2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +8.03   S/R  73%
14  Collide             2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +7.03   S/R  71%
13  Over The Guns       2.20  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.78   S/R  69%
12  Gustav Klimt        3.00  LOSE  1.30  -1.30  +6.78   S/R  75%
11  Alhakmha            1.57  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +8.08   S/R  82%
10  Concello            2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +9.08   S/R  90%
 9  Beat That           1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +8.08   S/R  89%
 8  Restive Spirit      3.00  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +7.55   S/R  88%
 7  Beatboxer (R4)      2.00  WIN   1.00  +0.90  +6.05   S/R  86%
 6  Mutawaffer          1.83  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.15   S/R  83%
 5  Magnetic Charm      2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.31  +6.15   S/R 100%
 4  Willie John         2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.84   S/R 100%
 3  Battaash            2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +3.64   S/R 100%
 2  Royal Plaza         1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +2.39   S/R 100%
 1  Star Shield         2.67  WIN   1.00  +1.67  +1.67   S/R 100%

August SELECTIONS: 18  WIN: 13  LOSE: 5  S/R: 72%  PROFIT: +8.96pts

(111112111125411211)       First or second: 88.88%

19  Queen Medb          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.88   S/R  63%
18  L'Explora           1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +6.88   S/R  67%
17  Kuwait Station      2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +6.44   S/R  65%
16  Advanced Virgo      1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +4.94   S/R  63%  
15  Major Partnership   1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +4.22   S/R  60%
14  Raymond Tusk        2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  +3.49   S/R  58%
13  Hazapour            1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.74   S/R  54%
12  Wicklow Brave       1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.74   S/R  58%
11  Altra Vita          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.94   S/R  55% 
10  Inessa              1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.94   S/R  60%
 9  Wissahickon         3.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.14   S/R  55%
 8  Fox Coach           2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.14   S/R  63%
 7  Herculean           1.50  WIN   1.00  +0.50  +4.14   S/R  71%
 6  Thriving            2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +3.64   S/R  67%  
 5  Ballydun Oscar      1.67  WIN   2.00  +1.34  +2.54   S/R  60%
 4  Alsimsaam           2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.20   S/R  50%
 3  Altra Vita          1.80  WIN   2.00  +1.60  +2.20   S/R  67% 
 2  Construct (R4)      2.37  WIN   2.00  +2.60  +0.60   S/R  50%
 1  Forever Together    1.67  LOSE  2.00  -2.00  -2.00   S/R   0%

July SELECTIONS: 19  WIN: 12  LOSE: 7  S/R: 63%  PROFIT: +5.88pts

(211L111281313111112)       First or second: 78.95%

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