Racing Trends for Newbury (22 September 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers more powerful racing trends in tandem with perceptive betting advice for Newbury on Saturday. Our results this year have been nothing short of sensational and all the indications show our filtration/profiling really works!  To aid the process further we offer more valuable information in the shape of course statistics, where we look at the performance of the different age-groups in both handicap and non-handicap races. Finally we highlight the latest movers and shakers for the course in 2018. These figures have relevance and to ignore them without factoring them into thought processes is to invite negative influences to your bet.

Figures update prior to today's racing.


2yo:    52-166 for 31%  (-27.80)     7-17  for 41%   (-2.40)
3yo:    30-95  for 32%  (-11.13)    45-152 for 30%  (-22.82)
4yo+:   22-45  for 49%  (+18.08)    32-133 for 24%  (-25.94)
Total: 104-306 for 34%  (-20.85)    84-302 for 28%  (-51.16)

TOP TRAINERS at Newbury for 2018

William Haggas: 12 winners from 33 runners for 36% (+13.61)
Richard Hannon: 11 winners from 93 runners for 12% (-13.55)
John Gosden:     6 winners from 21 runners for 29%  (+6.00)
Charlie Appleby: 4 winners from  8 runners for 50%  (+6.66)
Mark Johnston:   4 winners from 18 runners for 22%  (+2.10)
Tom Dascombe:    3 winners from  6 runners for 50%  (+9.25)

TOP JOCKEYS at Newbury for 2018

James Doyle:       13 winners from 52 rides for 25%  (+1.18)
Silvestre De Sousa: 7 winners from 23 rides for 30% (+50.50)
Frankie Dettori:    5 winners from 19 rides for 26%  (-0.65)
Tom Marquand:       5 winners from 44 rides for 11%  (-2.40)
Oisin Murphy        5 winners from 57 rides for  9% (-31.25)
Richard Kingscote:  4 winners from 11 rides for 36%  (+9.25)
Ryan Moore:         4 winners from 27 rides for 15% (+14.85)

Newbury is a left handed, galloping course. The straight mile is slightly undulating throughout. One of the fairest courses in the country, though its galloping nature makes it ideal for the big, long-striding type, and the track becomes testing in inclement weather.

The Racing Horse looks at three races from Newbury on Saturday and once again expect to make a profit given the soundness/quality of our rationale. Even if our members disagree with our conclusions the data submitted makes us all better informed.


Formerly recognised as the trial race for the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe run later in the season.

2.20 Newbury: Duabi Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3) 1m3f5y

16/16: Won over 1m2f (or further) previously (100%)
15/16: Priced 9/1 or less (94%)
12/14: Won on the going (86%)
13/16: Aged 5yo or younger (81%)
12/16: Had 4 or more career wins (75%)
12/16: Winning distance – 1 length or less (75%)
12/16: Won at Listed or better class previously (75%)
10/16: Favourites placed (63%)
..9/16: Raced at Newbury before (56%)
..8/16: Raced 5 or more times that season (50%)
..7/16: Won a Group race before (44%)
..6/14: Already won at the same level or better (43%)
..6/14: Top Rated winners (43%)
..6/16: Won their last race (38%)
..5/14: Distance winners (36%)
..4/14: Winning favourites (29%)
..4/16: Favourites that won (25%)
..3/14: Course winners (21%)
..3/16: Trained by David Simcock (including last 3 runnings) (19%)
..3/16: Raced at York last time (19%)
..2/16: Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (13%)
..2/16: Ridden by Ryan Moore (13%)

25/1 highest winning SP and 2/1 the lowest (14 runs)
Average winning SP is 4/1 (10 runs)

Performance of the last 10 favourites: 2231641223

With little obvious pace, Mirage Dancer could be better placed than most to take advantage. In what could be a tactical affair, Desert Encounter could be most inconvenienced given the likelihood of racing away from the pace from those in the front half of the betting forecast.


MIRAGE DANCER is starting to fulfil his potential now and looks capable of defying a penalty after his comfortable success at this level at Goodwood. Last year's winner Desert Encounter rates the main threat, though Young Rascal remains with potential having found the Derby too much.


1: MIRAGE DANCER 13/8 (general 19.13)  2: DESERT ENCOUNTER 4/1 (general)  3: YOUNG RASCAL 10/3 (Betfair)

Mirage Dancer is a steadily progressive colt who took form to another level when readily landing Group 3 at Goodwood 50 days ago, and the one to beat despite 3lb penalty.


This race is named after the successful racehorse from the 1970’s called Mill Reef and was first run in 1972.

2.55 Newbury: Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) 6f8y

13/16: Won from draw 5 or lower (81%)
13/16: Raced 3 or more times (81%)
13/16: Priced 5/1 or shorter (81%)
12/16: Won over 6f previously (75%)
12/16: Favourites placed (75%)
10/14: Distance winners (71%)
11/16: Foaled in March or later (69%)
10/16: Winning distance – 1 length or less (63%)
..8/16: Favourites (or joint) winners (50%)
..7/16: Won exactly two races before (44%)
..6/16: Won by an April foal (38%)
..5/16: Raced at Doncaster last time out (31%)
..4/14: Unrated winners (29%)
..4/16: Won their previous race (25%)
..4/16: Ran in the Gimcrack last time out (York) (25%)
..3/14: Top rated winners (21%)
..2/16: Trained by Richard Hannon (13%)
..2/16: Trained by Karl Burke (13%)
..2/16: Trained by Richard Fahey (13%)
..1/14: Course winners (7%)
..1/14: Previously won a Group 2 race (7%)
..0/16: Filly winners (0%)

10/1 highest winning SP and 13/8 the lowest (14 runs)
Average winning SP is 7/2 (10 runs)

Performance of the last 10 favourites: 2114111542

Garrus shouldn’t be inconvenienced if looking to adopt a prominent position. The leaders will have to go harder than the predicted pace forecast if the hold-up horses such as Kessaar are going to come into things.


TRUE MASON was no match for a couple of high-class fillies in the Prix Morny last time but faces a slightly easier test here and still appears to be on the up, so he gets a tentative vote in a race where several are hard to split. Kessaar is sure to be thereabouts again on the back of winning the Sirenia Stakes and Garrus strikes as a potential big improver up in grade.


1: THE IRISH ROVER 8/1 (Coral 19.28)  TRUE MASON 7/2 (general) 3: KESSAR 11/2 (Betfair and Paddy Power).

Irish Rover has been contesting some of the best 2yo races since winning over course and distance in May and, following a respectable fifth in the sales race at Doncaster, could find a bit of improvement tried in blinkers. 8/1 looks a price.


3.30 Newbury: Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) 5f34y

16/16: Raced four or more times that season (100%)
14/16: Winners from stall 5 or higher (88%)
14/16: Winning distance – 1 length or less (88%)
14/16: Priced 9/1 or shorter (88%)
13/16: Won a Listed or Group race before (81%)
11/14: Distance winners (79%)
12/16: Placed in the top 3 in their last race (75%)
12/16: Won over 5f previously (75%)
10/14: Won on the going (71%)
11/16: Aged 5 or younger (69%)
11/16: Won 4 or more times (69%)
..8/14: Previously won at the same level or better (57%)
..8/16: Previous Group race winners (50%)
..6/16: Ran at the Curragh last time out (inc 3 of last 6 winners) (38%)
..6/16: Won their last race (38%)
..5/14: Winning favourites (36%)
..5/14: Top rated winners (36%)
..5/16: Favourites (31%)
..4/16: Mare winners (25%)
..3/14: Course winners (21%)

50/1 highest winning SP and 5/4 the lowest (14 runs)
Average winning SP is 4/1 (10 runs)

Take Cover won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

Performance of the last 10 favourites: 2311611144 

A strongly contested lead could count against El Astronaute, who is expected to try and race close up. A strong early pace seems highly likely. Mr Lupton could be suited if held up as expected.


EQUILATERAL has yet to cut it at pattern level but he was firmly back on track when dominating his 2 rivals at Leicester 11 days ago and this could well be his trip. Fellow 3-y-o Sioux Nation was back to his best when a close third in a Group 1 at the Curragh on Sunday and is another to consider despite his penalty, along with last year's winner Take Cover.


1: MR LUPTON 9/1 (William Hill 19.42)  2: EQUILATERAL 9/2 (William Hill)  3: SIOUX NATION 6/1 (general).

Both wins for Mr Lupton this season have come from off the pace at York, including Listed event in July. Big player on that form and 9/1 seems a great price!


  Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.


The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

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