Pacafi (23 September 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

 JAMIL 3.15 Hamilton at 4/6

Always Trying Novice Stakes (1m½f)

 .

Pedigree: 240,000gns F, 95,000gns 2yo; second foal; half-brother to 6f 2yo winner Exmouth (RPR 88); dam 7f 2yo winner (inc Group 3, also Graded stakes-placed at 1m4f in US; RPR 106), half-sister to Italian 1m4f Group 1 winner Leadership

THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE


Trainer Form: 6-23 for 25%    (10)
OR: 90                        (10)
Optimum Ground: Soft to heavy (10) 
Optimum Distance: 1m/1m1f     (10)
Jockey Booking: David Egan    (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:   (50)

Danger: Cloudlam

Promising type with a soft ground action!

Jamil looks a promising type with just two runs on the clock. His debut as a 2yo was over 7f on heavy ground in a Class 4 Novice and his action through the race assured his supporters he was at home in testing conditions. He drew right away close home having been switched out. Improvement over a mile was expected and he looked a decent prospect. After the race jockey Andrea Atzeni confirmed: "Jamil is very straightforward and has a good attitude. He went down nicely, and being by Dansili he was always likely to handle that ground. He won going away and should get further."

Beaten by decent sort when needing the run

His second run nearly a year later at Carlisle was against the Frankel colt Collide (8/13) in a Class 5 Novice who had a fitness advantage but he was outstayed over the 1m1f. He had been off since last October but still travelled like the winner until a lack of a run found him out. He will strip fitter this time out and has a once-raced filly to beat over the 1m+ trip. Further progress is almost certain and he runs at Hamilton on Sunday rather than Lingfield on Tuesday (not convinced that course would suit at all?)

Hamilton Park

Hamilton Park is a very undulating course and this seems to favour front runners, who have an excellent record at this course. Our Pacafi has early and will easily stay today's distance so that is another plus. It appears their is a distinct advantage to low numbers. This would make sense as the mile at Hamilton is a right handed dog leg and the horses drawn low would be on the inside of this. Jamil is drawn 2, Cloudlam drawn 6 and Never Be Enough drawn 3 so the rails should be ours so prime position!

Trainer form

Roger Varian is in great form with his horses and September shows 12 winners from 58 runners for 21% strike-rate and a level-stake profit of +12.50. Within those figures he has 10 second places also. At Hamilton he has recorded 4-16 for 25%. When David Egan rides for the trainer they combine to score 16-120 for 13% though 15-88 for 17% for this year. The trainer has just this one runner for Sunday.

Of his rivals

A couple of these represent powerful Newmarket yards with a good strike rate at the track. We cannot be sure Cloudlam handles the soft to heavy ground. The Haggas filly made only a modest start at Chelmsford but this shorter trip should prove more to her liking. The trainer is 4-10 at the course over the past five years and his filly receives weight. Never Be Enough has a bit to find with Jamil on latest running and the rest will do well to figure.

Timeform

JAMIL is difficult to oppose after finding only a useful prospect too strong after 11 months off at Carlisle recently. Cloudlam’s debut effort has been boosted and she could be the one to follow the selection home.

Value

There are two worthy rivals who receive weight but if ours improves for the run as expected on his favoured ground the 4/6 looks perceived value. We see the colt as a 4/7 shot though we fully expect money to come for both Cloudlam and Never Be Enough so our bet might ease as a consequence.

Finally, when things/decisions are tight we will generally favour a colt over a filly but Cloudlam's sire Arch ran and loved very fast conditions and the dam only managed a third place on good to soft but was aimed at good to good to ground races and the entry confuses us. Haggas is respected of course but the decision looks strange.

 The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

15  Jamil               1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  +6.94   S/R  73%
14  Wadilsafa (S)       2.20  WIN   1.20  +1.00  +6.27   S/R  71% 
13  Kamikaze Lord       1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +5.27   S/R  69% 
12  Too Darn Hot        1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +4.55   S/R  67%
11  Sangarius           2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +4.02   S/R  64%
10  Pilaster (S)        2.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.92   S/R  60%
 9  Equilateral         1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +3.92   S/R  67%
 8  Carrie Des Champs   1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +3.30   S/R  63%
 7  Harry Angel         2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.77   S/R  57%
 6  Enable              1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  +3.77   S/R  67%
 5  Sextant             1.53  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.10   S/R  60%
 4  Floria Tosca        2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.10   S/R  75% 
 3  Autumn War          2.87  WIN   1.00  +1.87  +2.90   S/R  67%
 2  Gleeful (S)         2.37  LOSE  1.25  +0.12  +1.03   S/R  50%
 1  Veracious           1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.91   S/R 100%

September SELECTIONS: 15  WIN: 11  LOSE: 4  S/R: 73%  PROFIT: +6.94pts

(141121611311111)       FINISHED First or Second: 80.00%

18  Never Do Nothing    1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +8.96   S/R  72%
17  Desert Frost        2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.31  +8.34   S/R  71%
16  Nick Lost           1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +7.03   S/R  69%
15  Lah Ti Dar          2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +8.03   S/R  73%
14  Collide             2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +7.03   S/R  71%
13  Over The Guns       2.20  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.78   S/R  69%
12  Gustav Klimt        3.00  LOSE  1.30  -1.30  +6.78   S/R  75%
11  Alhakmha            1.57  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +8.08   S/R  82%
10  Concello            2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +9.08   S/R  90%
 9  Beat That           1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +8.08   S/R  89%
 8  Restive Spirit      3.00  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +7.55   S/R  88%
 7  Beatboxer (R4)      2.00  WIN   1.00  +0.90  +6.05   S/R  86%
 6  Mutawaffer          1.83  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.15   S/R  83%
 5  Magnetic Charm      2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.31  +6.15   S/R 100%
 4  Willie John         2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.84   S/R 100%
 3  Battaash            2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +3.64   S/R 100%
 2  Royal Plaza         1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +2.39   S/R 100%
 1  Star Shield         2.67  WIN   1.00  +1.67  +1.67   S/R 100%

August SELECTIONS: 18  WIN: 13  LOSE: 5  S/R: 72%  PROFIT: +8.96pts

(111112111125411211)       First or second: 88.88%

19  Queen Medb          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.88   S/R  63%
18  L'Explora           1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +6.88   S/R  67%
17  Kuwait Station      2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +6.44   S/R  65%
16  Advanced Virgo      1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +4.94   S/R  63%  
15  Major Partnership   1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +4.22   S/R  60%
14  Raymond Tusk        2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  +3.49   S/R  58%
13  Hazapour            1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.74   S/R  54%
12  Wicklow Brave       1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.74   S/R  58%
11  Altra Vita          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.94   S/R  55% 
10  Inessa              1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.94   S/R  60%
 9  Wissahickon         3.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.14   S/R  55%
 8  Fox Coach           2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.14   S/R  63%
 7  Herculean           1.50  WIN   1.00  +0.50  +4.14   S/R  71%
 6  Thriving            2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +3.64   S/R  67%  
 5  Ballydun Oscar      1.67  WIN   2.00  +1.34  +2.54   S/R  60%
 4  Alsimsaam           2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.20   S/R  50%
 3  Altra Vita          1.80  WIN   2.00  +1.60  +2.20   S/R  67% 
 2  Construct (R4)      2.37  WIN   2.00  +2.60  +0.60   S/R  50%
 1  Forever Together    1.67  LOSE  2.00  -2.00  -2.00   S/R   0%

July SELECTIONS: 19  WIN: 12  LOSE: 7  S/R: 63%  PROFIT: +5.88pts

(211L111281313111112)       First or second: 78.95%

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