LATEST NEWS from The Racing Horse

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse has been in sublime form in recent months. We tweaked things at headquarters recently by upgrading our Racing Templates so we are now interested to see if our form is maintained through to the end of the year. These are exciting times. On Racing Templates we have recently written pieces for ON COURSE PROFITS and BETTING INSIDERS. With ON COURSE PROFITS we talked about them in a general sense and for BETTING INSIDERS have applied them to the six UK All-Weather Racecourses.

If you think you have the game beat it will bite you in the proverbial so we will remain calm and continue with our incremental gains underpinned by a no risk policy. By now our newer members will know it is impossible to lose money following the Pacafi, things might be occasionally slow, but we do not lose money and over 98% of those who bet LOSE!

Looking at our Pacafi's over the last three months we have produced astonishing figures:

SELECTIONS: 51 WIN: 35 LOSE: 16 STRIKE-RATE: 70.59% PROFIT: 21.11pts.

If our member only placed £25 win on each nomination they would have banked over £525 less their £29.85 subscription charge. Prices advised are neither best prices available nor Betfair Exchange/SP. We take this opportunity to say our strike-rate is particularly high at the moment and impossible to maintain, but we hope to hit close to 60% as an average, that said we will seek every percentage point we can at every opportunity!

Each of those bets came with a sound rationale explaining why our nomination would win, there was no guesswork and certainly no tipping! Many members who leave remind us anyone can tip odds-on winners, and of course they can, BUT can they pick those winners at perceived value odds? If they could they would not have joined us in the first place. Besides, our last quarter shows the average price of our selections was 2.08. We have never claimed to be the best but we are pretty darn good and it is important to remind readers the subscription is just £9.95 per month. Every bet we nominate carries our stake money and our primary source of income.

BUT, we not only produce a profit from our PACAFI we also make profits from our racing trends and systems. We currently have three systems in operation and intend to bring back our NH Winter System which has made us profits over the last 2 years and once again fits nicely with our little to no risk policy. More about that next week...

~

Not sure if our members were on Mt Leinster for Willie Mullins yesterday but we have a feeling about his horse. This 4yo Beat Hollow gelding was impressive irrespective of what he beat and we just loved the way he raced through the ground, this looks a real find! He was quite keen during the early stages and took over to lead around four furlongs out on the outside of horses. Still going best at the 2f pole, and kept widest on the best of the ground, he jumped the road before turning for home with a clear lead. He stretched well clear in the straight and looks potentially smart. He's built for jumping but it's probably more likely that he'll line out in a winners' bumper next time. He must NOT be missed and we will remind the member!

WILLIE MULLINS NHF SYSTEM for 2018

41  Mt Leinster         2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +12.08 S/R 46%
40  Kerry Star          2.37  WIN   1.00  +1.37  +10.58 S/R 45% 
39  Scaglietti          2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +9.21  S/R 44%
38  Rebel Og            4.33  WIN   1.00  +3.33  +8.21  S/R 42%
37  Presenting Leah     2.87  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +4.88  S/R 41%    
36  Royal Rendezvous    3.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.88  S/R 42%
35  Diamond Hill        3.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +6.88  S/R 43%
34  Koroleva            3.50  WIN   1.00  +2.50  +7.88  S/R 44%
33  Sweet Flight        2.87  WIN   1.00  +1.87  +5.38  S/R 42%
32  Koroleva            3.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.51  S/R 41%
31  Mid Day Gun         1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +4.51  S/R 42%
30  Getareason          2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.31  S/R 43%
29  Dramalarma Lucy     2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +6.31  S/R 45%
28  Robin De Carlow     2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +4.81  S/R 43%
27  Masons Daughter     2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +3.31  S/R 41%
26  Yukon Lil           2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +1.81  S/R 38%
25  Sancta Simona       3.00  WIN   1.00  +2.00  +0.81  S/R 36%
24  Billaway            2.87  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.19  S/R 33%
23  Small Farm          2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.19  S/R 35%
22  Roll Again          2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.81  S/R 36% 
21  Vent D'Automne      3.25  WIN   1.00  +2.25  +1.81  S/R 38%
20  Stay Humble         1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.44  S/R 35%
19  Passageway          4.50  WIN   1.00  +3.50  +0.56  S/R 37%
18  Southern Nights    13.00  LOSE  0.50  -0.50  -2.94  S/R 33%
17  Colreevy            2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  -2.44  S/R 35%
16  Think Positive      5.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -4.19  S/R 31%
15  Southern Nights     2.87  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.19  S/R 33%
14  Castle North        2.87  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.19  S/R 36%
13  Vent D'automne      2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.19  S/R 38%
12  Stay Humble         1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.19  S/R 42%
11  Getareason          1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +0.81  S/R 45%
10  Redfield            3.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.09  S/R 40%
 9  Rio Vivas           4.50  WIN   1.00  +3.50  +1.09  S/R 44%
 8  Clinton Hill        2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.41  S/R 38%    
 7  Small Farm          1.72  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.41  S/R 43%
 6  Derby               2.25  WIN   1.00  +0.88  -0.41  S/R 50%
 5  Voix De Tiep        1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  -1.29  S/R 40%
 4  Carefully Selected  1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  -2.09  S/R 25%
 3  Cemister            2.10  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.00  S/R  0%
 2  Voix Des Tiep       1.83  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R  0%
 1  Castlebawn West     2.10  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

SELECTIONS: 41  WIN: 19  LOSE: 22  S/R: 46%  PROFIT: +12.08pts

Willie Mullins has a qualifier tomorrow in Buck's Millionaire 5.15 Navan. It was a close call but we have decided to opt out on this occasion. This twice-raced maiden was third of 12 in bumper (11/8) at Kilbeggan (19.5f, good) 16 days ago. He is clearly a jumper in the making (loads about him physically) but he might be vulnerable again in one of these.

TIMEFORM

Ask Neilus took a big step forward from her debut when fourth at Listowel and could progress enough again to get off the mark. Stablemate Ballydunblaze looks a likeable newcomer, while Buck's Billionaire seems sure to have a bright future over jumps.

***

Saeed has three runners today on the AW but the two at Chelmsford have tough favourites to beat and we do not have perceived value meeting chance! Regarding Dubai Icon 8.15 Wolverhampton whilst we were considering the bet we missed the 2/1 and cannot take the 5/4, our apologies for being slow off the mark. This one could win. We expect to get busier with this trainer through the autumn as he sends more of his better horses to race on the synthetics.

SAEED BIN SUROOR AW SYSTEM RESULTS for 2018

36 Volcanic Sky        2.67  WIN   1.00  +1.67  +11.24  S/R  36%
35 Recordman           2.75  WIN   0.50  +0.88  +9.57   S/R  34%
34 Dress Coat          3.75  LOSE  0.50  -0.50  +8.69   S/R  32%
33 Big Tour            5.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +9.19   S/R  33%
32 Piece Of History    3.25  WIN   1.00  +2.25  +10.19  S/R  34%
31 Recordman           5.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +7.94   S/R  32%
30 Dubai One           9.00  LOSE  0.50  -0.50  +8.94   S/R  33%
29 Brave Hero         15.00  LOSE  0.50  -0.50  +9.44   S/R  34%
28 Moving Forward      8.50  LOSE  0.50  -0.50  +9.94   S/R  36%
27 Parting Clouds     11.00  LOSE  0.50  -0.50  +10.44  S/R  37%
26 Emirates Flyer     10.00  LOSE  0.50  -0.50  +10.94  S/R  38%
25 Mokhles (not AW)    5.00  LOSE  0.50  -0.50  +11.44  S/R  40%
24 Burj                1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +11.94  S/R  42%
23 Fast Landing        3.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +11.14  S/R  39%
22 Asoof               4.00  LOSE  0.50  -0.50  +12.14  S/R  41%
21 Fitzsimmons        13.00  LOSE  0.50  -0.50  +12.64  S/R  43%
20 Al Mustashar        6.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +13.14  S/R  45%
19 Emirates Flyer      7.00  LOSE  0.50  -0.50  +14.14  S/R  47%
18 Team Decision      12.00  LOSE  0.50  -0.50  +14.64  S/R  50%
17 Dubai Horizon       8.00  LOSE  0.50  -0.50  +15.14  S/R  53%
16 Dayking (not AW)    2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +15.64  S/R  56%
15 Aloof               3.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +14.44  S/R  53%
14 Leaders Legacy      2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +15.44  S/R  57%
13 Fast Landing        2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +14.34  S/R  54%
12 Returning Glory     3.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +15.34  S/R  58%
11 Desert Frost        3.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +16.34  S/R  64%
10  Extra Mile         2.87  WIN   1.00  +1.87  +17.34  S/R  70%
 9  Major Partnership  3.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +15.47  S/R  67%
 8  Ocean Of Love      5.00  WIN   1.00  +4.00  +16.47  S/R  75%
 7  Silent Attack      3.00  WIN   1.00  +2.00  +12.47  S/R  71%
 6  Extra Mile         4.30  WIN   1.00  +3.30  +10.47  S/R  67%
 5  Great Order        1.40  LOSE  1.00  -1.00   +7.17  S/R  60%
 4  Beautiful Memory   2.37  WIN   1.00  +1.37   +8.17  S/R  75%
 3  Ocean Of Love      5.50  WIN   1.00  +4.50   +6.80  S/R  67%
 2  Beautiful Memory   4.30  WIN   1.00  +3.30   +2.30  S/R  50%
 1  Spring Waterfall   6.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00   -1.00  S/R   0%

SELECTIONS: 36  WIN: 13  LOSE: 23   S/R 36%   PROFIT: +11.24pts

***

We have not closed it yet but we are about to close the William Haggas System but once again he has made a profit for us albeit not as much as last year. The ground up north could be about to get heavy and not ideal conditions for him to race his charges. We will revisit his modus operandi in March 2018.

WILLIAM HAGGAS UP NORTH SYSTEM 2018

35  Restive Spirit      3.00  WIN   1.00  +2.00  +5.21  S/R  34%
34  Mankib              2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +3.21  S/R  32%
33  Ascended            2.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.71  S/R  30%
32  Snow Wind           1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +2.71  S/R  31%
31  Alfaggaal           1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.80  S/R  29%
30  Hakeem              6.50  LOSE  0.50  -0.50  +2.80  S/R  30%
29  The Grand Visir     6.00  LOSE  0.50  -0.50  +3.30  S/R  31%
28  Algaffaal           3.50  LOSE  0.50  -0.50  +3.80  S/R  32%
27  Maid To Remember   12.00  LOSE  0.50  -0.50  +4.30  S/R  33%
26  Beauty Filly        2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +4.80  S/R  35% 
25  Ascended            5.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +6.80  S/R  38%
23  Red Hut Red         4.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.80  S/R  35%
22  Beshaayir           3.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +4.80  S/R  36%
21  Dynamic             3.25  WIN   1.00  +2.25  +5.80  S/R  38%
20  Tirania            15.00  LOSE  0.50  -0.50  +3.55  S/R  35%
19  Completion          8.00  LOSE  0.50  -0.50  +4.05  S/R  37%
18  The Grand Visir     5.50  WIN   0.50  +2.25  +4.55  S/R  39%
17  Mosalim             9.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.30  S/R  35% 
16  Improve             4.50  WIN   1.00  +3.50  +3.30  S/R  38%
15  Feline Groovy       3.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.20  S/R  33%
14  Red Hut Red         4.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.80  S/R  36%
13  Queen Of Bermuda    1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +1.80  S/R  38%
12  Martineo            6.00  LOSE  0.50  -0.50  +1.00  S/R  33%
11  Mubtasim            4.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.50  S/R  36%
10  Mosalim             2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.50  S/R  40%
 9  Cristal Spirit      3.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.50  S/R  44%
 8  Completion          5.50  WIN   1.00  +4.50  +4.50  S/R  50%
 7  Talaaqy             2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +0.00  S/R  43%
 6  Kodinar             2.87  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  33%
 5  Regina Nostra       6.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.00  S/R  40%
 4  Completion          2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +1.00  S/R  50%
 3  Mosseyb             1.83  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.50  S/R  33%
 2  Three Weeks         2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +0.50  S/R  50% 
 1  Completion          4.30  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R   0%

SELECTIONS: 35  WIN: 12  LOSE: 23  S/R: 34%   PROFIT: +5.21pts

***

Please be reminded we have two horses to follow given to us by Oliver Sherwood. They are Sevarano and Manning Estate. You can find more details here

***

We currently have shares in two horses being trained by Paul Nicholls and they are both back in training and due to run in October. We do not mind telling members that we are particularly excited about Blackjack Kentucky and he could be anything. More to come on these later this month...

  Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

~

The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *