Pacafi (25 September 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

 GEMINI 8.45 Chelmsford at 11/8

Sound Financial Planning Handicap (1m6f)

 

Pedigree: 65,000gns vendor Y); sixth foal; half-sister to 5 winners notably Greatwood (7f-9.5f inc GB 2yo/Australian Listed; stayed 1m6f; 110); dam German 1m2f winner, closely related to Irish Derby/Ascot Gold Cup winner Fame And Glory out of 7f/1m 2yo winner

THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE


Trainer Form: 12-71 for 17%    (10)
RPR: 74                        (10)
Optimum Ground: Good            (9) 
Optimum Distance: 1m4f/1m6f?    (9)
Jockey Booking: Jason Watson   (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:    (48)

Danger: Lyford

Getting involved in Class 6 Handicaps is definitely not our preferred option but that is what we are doing with our Pacafi today. We also have two slight imponderables that need explaining, hopefully we will cover that.

Easy winner at Bath last week

We were at Bath last week to see Gemini run out an easy five length winner of an apprentice handicap and she was not blowing when coming back into the paddock. She gave us the distinct impression she was not stopping as she hit the line strongly over the 1m4f distance. She escapes a penalty so with the excellent Jason Watson's claim is 3lbs better off giving her a fantastic chance of following up her decisive win.

Powered clear in final 100 yards...

Gemini is only a 3yo filly with 6 runs on the clock and was returning from a seven-week break, giving us the impression she had come to hand and improving. They went a respectable gallop on the firm ground at Bath where she raced nicely hugging the rail just behind the leaders. Today she has to step up 2f but she powered clear in the final 100 yards suggesting a step up in trip will not be a problem. We doubt she will be beaten today because of the distance.

Tries Polytrack for the first time

She does race on Polytrack for the first time and she will have to prove she acts on it but her racing style will probably suit it especially with stall 1 to help. Watson can grab the rail again, take a sit, and produce when ready, she just needs a kind trip. So the two unknowns could become an advantage. We are reminded today she is in form, drops from a stronger looking Class 5 at Bath to this Class 6, drops in weight effectively, has the perfect draw and is the least exposed.

Chelmsford is unlike the other Polytrack courses in that it is a galloping track and most horses can act on it. There seems to be a definite bias towards front runners. 

Trainer form

Charlie Hills has his horses particularly well. September shows him 12 winners from 71 runners for 17% strike-rate and a level-stake profit of +2.91pts. He uses Jason Watson again today and they combine to score 2-4 for 50% (+4.00). Given this is Jason's first full season he rides Chelmsford well and shows 10-59 for 17%. He scores at 34% when riding favourites.

Of her rivals

Seinesational was beaten here just three days ago and is still penalised for an earlier win over course and distance (had 11 runs already this year). Avocet has gone close in both starts since landing a double but hasn’t raced since April while Lyford finished well ahead of Slowfoot when scoring over a slightly shorter trip here recently, this one could be the danger. Hell Of A Lady is yet another recent winner and steps up in trip today.

Timeform

GEMINI had plenty in hand at Bath last week and should be tough to beat turned out unpenalised. Lyford gained reward for some good efforts of late when scoring here last time and should go well again, while Seinesational can figure if coping with a third outing in quick succession.

Value

On this occasion we are not sure about perceived value. William Hill has taken a bet on Seinesational and pushed Gemini out to 15/8 at 06.36 and that price looks huge! We have gone in again at that price. Handicaps and poor handicaps are fraught with danger but the stall one draw and the fact Gemini has early pace looks crucial.

 The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

17  Gemini              2.37        1.00
16  Finch Hatton        1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.94   S/R  69%
15  Jamil               1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  +6.94   S/R  73%
14  Wadilsafa (S)       2.20  WIN   1.20  +1.00  +6.27   S/R  71% 
13  Kamikaze Lord       1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +5.27   S/R  69% 
12  Too Darn Hot        1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +4.55   S/R  67%
11  Sangarius           2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +4.02   S/R  64%
10  Pilaster (S)        2.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.92   S/R  60%
 9  Equilateral         1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +3.92   S/R  67%
 8  Carrie Des Champs   1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +3.30   S/R  63%
 7  Harry Angel         2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.77   S/R  57%
 6  Enable              1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  +3.77   S/R  67%
 5  Sextant             1.53  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.10   S/R  60%
 4  Floria Tosca        2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.10   S/R  75% 
 3  Autumn War          2.87  WIN   1.00  +1.87  +2.90   S/R  67%
 2  Gleeful (S)         2.37  LOSE  1.25  +0.12  +1.03   S/R  50%
 1  Veracious           1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.91   S/R 100%

September SELECTIONS: 16  WIN: 11  LOSE: 5  S/R: 69%  PROFIT: +5.94pts

(1411216113111113)       FINISHED First or Second: 75.00%

18  Never Do Nothing    1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +8.96   S/R  72%
17  Desert Frost        2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.31  +8.34   S/R  71%
16  Nick Lost           1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +7.03   S/R  69%
15  Lah Ti Dar          2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +8.03   S/R  73%
14  Collide             2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +7.03   S/R  71%
13  Over The Guns       2.20  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.78   S/R  69%
12  Gustav Klimt        3.00  LOSE  1.30  -1.30  +6.78   S/R  75%
11  Alhakmha            1.57  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +8.08   S/R  82%
10  Concello            2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +9.08   S/R  90%
 9  Beat That           1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +8.08   S/R  89%
 8  Restive Spirit      3.00  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +7.55   S/R  88%
 7  Beatboxer (R4)      2.00  WIN   1.00  +0.90  +6.05   S/R  86%
 6  Mutawaffer          1.83  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.15   S/R  83%
 5  Magnetic Charm      2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.31  +6.15   S/R 100%
 4  Willie John         2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.84   S/R 100%
 3  Battaash            2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +3.64   S/R 100%
 2  Royal Plaza         1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +2.39   S/R 100%
 1  Star Shield         2.67  WIN   1.00  +1.67  +1.67   S/R 100%

August SELECTIONS: 18  WIN: 13  LOSE: 5  S/R: 72%  PROFIT: +8.96pts

(111112111125411211)       First or second: 88.88%

19  Queen Medb          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.88   S/R  63%
18  L'Explora           1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +6.88   S/R  67%
17  Kuwait Station      2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +6.44   S/R  65%
16  Advanced Virgo      1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +4.94   S/R  63%  
15  Major Partnership   1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +4.22   S/R  60%
14  Raymond Tusk        2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  +3.49   S/R  58%
13  Hazapour            1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.74   S/R  54%
12  Wicklow Brave       1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.74   S/R  58%
11  Altra Vita          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.94   S/R  55% 
10  Inessa              1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.94   S/R  60%
 9  Wissahickon         3.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.14   S/R  55%
 8  Fox Coach           2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.14   S/R  63%
 7  Herculean           1.50  WIN   1.00  +0.50  +4.14   S/R  71%
 6  Thriving            2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +3.64   S/R  67%  
 5  Ballydun Oscar      1.67  WIN   2.00  +1.34  +2.54   S/R  60%
 4  Alsimsaam           2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.20   S/R  50%
 3  Altra Vita          1.80  WIN   2.00  +1.60  +2.20   S/R  67% 
 2  Construct (R4)      2.37  WIN   2.00  +2.60  +0.60   S/R  50%
 1  Forever Together    1.67  LOSE  2.00  -2.00  -2.00   S/R   0%

July SELECTIONS: 19  WIN: 12  LOSE: 7  S/R: 63%  PROFIT: +5.88pts

(211L111281313111112)       First or second: 78.95%

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