Racing Trends for 2018 Cambridgeshire Handicap

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The Racing Horse offers more powerful racing trends in tandem with perceptive betting advice for Newmarket (Rowley Mile Course) on Saturday. Our results this year have been nothing short of sensational and all the indications show our filtration/profiling really works!  To aid the process further we offer more valuable information in the shape of our unique RACECOURSE TEMPLATES, where we look at the performance of the different age-groups in both handicap and non-handicap races. Finally we highlight the latest movers and shakers at the course in 2018. These figures have absolute relevance and to ignore without factoring them into thought processes is to invite negative influences to your bet.

Figures have been updated prior to today's racing. The eyecatchers are Charlie Appleby who loves Newmarket, Owen Burrows who is striking at 40% and William Buick who rides the course so well and 8 clear of his next rival in number of wins. These figures will have relevance today...

NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

2yo:    65-162 for 40%   (-5.00)     6-25  for 24%   (-7.54)
3yo:    46-132 for 35%  (-13.76)    38-130 for 29%  (-20.01)
4yo+:   18-52  for 35%   (-3.48)    29-118 for 25%   (-9.51)
Total: 129-346 for 37%  (-22.24)    73-263 for 27%  (-37.06)

TOP TRAINERS at Newmarket for 2018
Charlie Appleby: 12 wins from 41 runners for 29%  (+1.15)
John Gosden:      7 wins from 41 runners for 17%  (-3.62)
Roger Varian:     6 wins from 27 runners for 22%  (+1.00)
Mark Johnston:    6 wins from 30 runners for 20%  (+5.20)
Owen Burrows      4 wins from 10 runners for 40% (+27.00)

TOP JOCKEYS at Newmarket for 2018
William Buick: 13 winners from 44 rides for 30%  (+1.65)
Oisin Murphy:   5 winners from 33 rides for 15%  (-0.75)
Jim Crowley:    5 winners from 33 rides for 13% (-15.37)
Ryan Moore:     5 winners from 36 rides for 14% (-17.87)
Andrea Atzeni:  4 winners from 24 rides for 17% (-15.50)
Pat Cosgrave:   3 winners from 10 rides for 30%  (+8.00)
Kieran Shoemark 3 winners from 17 rides for 18% (+29.00)

Image result for newmarket course map rowley course

Newmarket’s main course is the Rowley Mile course. This is the only course in which the runners pass through two counties (Cambridgeshire and Suffolk) during races. The Rowley Mile course is very wide and due to the amount of racing on it the rails are constantly moved and different parts of it used, so it is difficult to be conclusive about any overall biases which exist. You need to watch the earlier races on the same day. The course is a straight course with a slightly inclined finish so if horses go off to fast in the 5 or 6 furlong races then they don’t get home.

The going today is good to firm and good in places

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The Cambridgeshire was established in 1839, the same year as the Cesarewitch – the two races that form what is referred to as the “Autumn Double”. In 1999 the race was run over a furlong further and around a bend, this was the only time this occurred.

3.35 Newmarket: 2018 Cambridgeshire Handicap

16/16: Aged 6yo or younger (100%)
15/16: Won 3 or more times in their career (94%)
11/13: Won a Class 2 handicap race (85%)
10/12: Ran in the last 9 weeks (83%)
13/16: Aged between 4 and 6yo (81%)
13/16: Carried 9st 4lbs or less (81%)
10/13: Distance winners (77%)
12/16: Won from a double-figure stall (75%)
12/16: Unplaced favourites (75%)
12/16: Won over 1m2f before (75%)
11/16: Finished 5th or better last time out (69%)
11/16: Had 5 or more runs that season (69%)
11/16: Rated between 90-100 (69%)
11/16: Returned a double (or treble) figure price (69%)
..8/13: Winners from top (high) half of the draw (62%)
..9/16: Carried 8st 12lbs or less (56%)
..7/13: Won a Class 2 handicap in the same season (54%)
..7/13: Finished in first 5 places in previous race (54%)
..5/13: Won by a claiming jockey (38%)
..5/13: Winners from the bottom (low) half of the draw (38%)
..5/16: Ran at Newbury last time out (31%)
..3/13: Winning favourites (23%)
..3/16: Winning favourites (19%)
..2/16: Trained by John Gosden (13%)
..2/16: Won their last race (13%)
..1/13: Course winners (8%)
..0/13: Top rated winners (0%)

33/1 has been the highest winning SP and 6/1 the lowest in the last 13 years. The average SP in the last 16 years is 22/1 

There is a chance of a pace burnout early, and Kenya and Very Talented are two who could suffer. Such a hotly-contested pace as is on the cards here may be to the benefit of Danceteria and Raising Sand who can be expected to be ridden with restraint.

Simon Crisford's profit with horses running in first time headgear since the start of the 2013 season is £51.25 and he saddles Mordin.

John Gosden has a 21% strike rate with horses running in races between 7f and up to 10f since the start of the 2013 season and he saddles TRICORN, STYLEHUNTER and WISSAHICKON

Previous winners:

2017: Dolphin Vista (50/1)
2016: Spark Plug (12/1)
2015: Third Time Lucky (14/1)
2014: Bronze Angel (14/1)
2013: Educate (8/1 fav)
2012: Bronze Angel (9/1)
2011: Prince of Johanne (40/1)
2010: Credit Swap (14/1)
2009: Supaseus (16/1)
2008: Tazeez (25/1)
2007: Pipedreamer (5/1 fav)
2006: Formal Decree (9/1)
2005: Blue Monday (5/1 fav)
2004: Spanish Don (100/1)
2003: Chivalry (14/1)
2002: Beauchamp Pilot (14/1)

 

TIMEFORM

Arguably unlucky not to score back from a 2-month break at York, SHARJA BRIDGE makes plenty of appeal off the same mark. He represents a yard in terrific form and the suspicion remains that this unexposed 4-y-o is pattern-class performer masquerading as a handicapper. The progressive Danceteria is feared most ahead of Stylehunter, who could be the pick of John Gosden's trio.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: DANCETERIA 11/1 (Ladbrokes and 888 21.05)  2: ZWAYYAN 33/1 (William Hill)  3: VERY TALENTED 18/1 (Ladbrokes and Blacktype)

Danceteria has been most progressive this year, scoring at Sandown in June and winner of his next 3 starts on the other course here. Things didn't go his way at the Curragh last time, he is shouting at us especially as the race could be ran to suit! Trainer David Menuisier told us: "I thought he was unlucky last time out when he ran at the Curragh. He started slowly and he struggled to move into the right position. He seems in great form now and I think we can try again with him."

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

 Disclaimer
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