Racing Trends for Newmarket (29 September 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse has the racing trends and RACECOURSE TEMPLATES for the four big races at Newmarket on Saturday. On this page we have the three Group races, the Cambridgeshire Handicap is on a separate post.

Figures have been updated prior to today's racing. The eyecatchers are Charlie Appleby who loves Newmarket, Owen Burrows who is striking at 40% and William Buick who rides the course so well and 8 clear of his next rival in number of wins. These figures will have relevance today...

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

2yo:    65-162 for 40%   (-5.00)     6-25  for 24%   (-7.54)
3yo:    46-132 for 35%  (-13.76)    38-130 for 29%  (-20.01)
4yo+:   18-52  for 35%   (-3.48)    29-118 for 25%   (-9.51)
Total: 129-346 for 37%  (-22.24)    73-263 for 27%  (-37.06)

TOP TRAINERS at Newmarket for 2018
Charlie Appleby: 12 wins from 41 runners for 29%  (+1.15)
John Gosden:      7 wins from 41 runners for 17%  (-3.62)
Roger Varian:     6 wins from 27 runners for 22%  (+1.00)
Mark Johnston:    6 wins from 30 runners for 20%  (+5.20)
Owen Burrows      4 wins from 10 runners for 40% (+27.00)

TOP JOCKEYS at Newmarket for 2018
William Buick: 13 winners from 44 rides for 30%  (+1.65)
Oisin Murphy:   5 winners from 33 rides for 15%  (-0.75)
Jim Crowley:    5 winners from 33 rides for 13% (-15.37)
Ryan Moore:     5 winners from 36 rides for 14% (-17.87)
Andrea Atzeni:  4 winners from 24 rides for 17% (-15.50)
Pat Cosgrave:   3 winners from 10 rides for 30%  (+8.00)
Kieran Shoemark 3 winners from 17 rides for 18% (+29.00)

This race is named after a residence called Royal Lodge located in Windsor Great Park. Established in 1946 over 5f for horses of both sexes, it was extended to a mile in 1948 and restricted to colts and geldings only in 1987. 

1.50 Newmarket: Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) 1m

16/16: Won one or two races before (100%)
15/16: Returned 9/1 or shorter (94%)
15/16: Finished in the top 3 last time out (94%)
15/16: Won over 7f or further before (94%)
15/16: Had 2 or more previous career runs (94%)
..9/11: Came from stalls 6 or lower (82%)
13/16: Ran within the last 6 weeks (81%)
12/16: Either US or Irish bred (75%)
12/16: Foaled in February or March (75%)
10/16: Only won over 7f before (63%)
..8/13: Unrated winners (62%)
..9/16: Won last time out (56%)
..6/16: Winning favourites (38%)
..5/13: Distance winners (38%)
..4/16: Trained by John Gosden (25%)
..3/13: Top rated winners (23%)
..3/16: Trained by Aidan O’Brien (19%)
..2/16: Trained by Mark Johnston (13%)
..1/13: Course winners (8%)
..0/13: Won at same level or better (0%)

12/1 has been the highest winning SP and 30/100 in the last 13 years. The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2.

Frankie Dettori has ridden the winner 5 times

From 2010 back the race was run at Ascot, except in 2005 (Newmarket)

TIMEFORM

John Gosden landed this race last year with Roaring Lion and saddles another smart prospect in BEATBOXER this time round. He has created a very good impression in winning his 2 starts to date and is expected to take this step up in class in his stride. Arthur Kitt chased home Beatboxer's stablemate Too Darn Hot last time and may again play second fiddle, while Cape of Good Hope merits respect.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: BEATBOXER 5/2  2: ARTHUR KITT 10/3  3: KADAR 9/2 (Non-runner)

Beatboxer was a winner of Sandown maiden on debut and followed up in good style under a penalty at Haydock (1m, good to firm). Clearly an exciting prospect and yard has won 2 of the last 3 runnings of this.

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This race is named after Cheveley Park, an estate close to Newmarket racecourse. It was first contested in 1899.

2.25 Newmarket: Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) 6f

16/16: Finished in the top two last time out (100%)
16/16: Won over 6f before (100%)
15/16: Foaled in February or March (94%)
15/16: Not run at Newmarket (Rowley) before (94%)
21/23: Distance winners (91%)
14/16: Ran within the last 6 weeks (88%)
..9/11: Came from stalls 1-5 (inc) (82%)
13/16: Returned 11/2 or shorter (81%)
13/16: Had 3 or more previous runs (81%)
11/16: Went onto run in 1,000 Guineas following season (2 won) (69%)
11/16: Won last time out (69%)
11/16: Placed favourites (69%)
14/23: Unrated winners (61%)
..9/16: Winning distance – ½ length or less (56%)
..9/16: Won exactly 2 previous races (56%)
..8/16: Horses from stall 6 that finished in the top 3 (50%)
..7/16: Winning favourites (1 joint) (44%)
..9/23: Winning favourites (1 joint) (39%)
..6/23: Top rated winners (26%)
..4/16: Winners drawn in stall 6 (25%)
..2/16: Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas the following season (13%)
..2/16: Trained by the Hannon yard (13%)
..2/16: Trained by Aidan O’Brien (last 2 runnings) (13%)
..2/16: Trained by Brian Meehan (13%)
..2/23: Course winners (9%)
..0/23: Already won a Group 1 race (0%)

40/1 has been the highest winning SP and 4/5 the lowest in the last 23 years. The average SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

TIMEFORM

PRETTY POLLYANNA displayed a willing attitude when getting the better of Signora Cabello in the Prix Morny and while the latter should again offer stern resistance, there's no real reason to believe that the outcome will be any different here. Indeed, Michael Bell's filly is a worthy favourite and will prove hard to beat. Irish-raiders Lady Kaya and So Perfect are live each-way contenders.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: PRETTY POLYANNA 6/4  2: SO PERFECT 9/1 (3rd)  3: FAIRYLAND 15/2 (WINNER).

It's Pretty Polyanna to lead all the way under ace front-running jockey Silvestre De Sousa. She is a third foal and a half-sister to 7f winner Preobrajenska (by Paco Boy) and 2yo 7f winner Roulette (by Poet's Voice). Dam is unraced but half-sister to useful winner up to 9f Gender Agenda. She has smart form winning a maiden at Yarmouth in June and Duchess of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket (by 7 lengths from Angel's Hideaway) in July. Followed up in a 9-runner Prix Morny at Deauville last time by ¾ length from Signora Cabello (pair clear), making running and finding plenty. Will stay 7f so can lead and hit the line hard. This was almost a Pacafi but we could not explain why she is not being backed given the above rationale!

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This race was established in 1866 and named after the location of the stud in Eltham belonging to the race founder William Blenkiron. Originally open to horses of either gender, it was restricted to colts only in 1987. Horses doing well in this race usually go on to compete in next season’s 2,000 Guineas.

3.00 Newmarket: Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) 6f

23/23: Distance winners (100%)
15/15: Won over 6f previously (100%)
14/15: Winning distance – 2 lengths or less (93%)
13/15: Won their last race (87%)
13/15: Ran 3 or more times previously (87%)
13/15: Won at least twice previously (87%)
12/15: Never raced at Newmarket (Rowley) previously (80%)
11/15: Returned 8/1 or shorter (73%)
11/15: Foaled in either February or March (73%)
..9/15: Won a Group 1 or 2 race before (60%)
..9/15: Favourites placed (60%)
13/23: Unrated winners (57%)
..9/23: Winning favourites (1 joint) (39%)
..8/23: Course winners (35%)
..5/15: Ran at Deauville last time out (33%)
..4/15: Favourites that won (27%)
..4/15: Won by an Irish-based stable (27%)
..6/23: Top rated winners (26%)
..3/15: Trained by Aidan O’Brien (20%)
..1/15: Winners that came from stall 1 (7%)

33/1 has been the highest winning SP and 3/10 the lowest in the last 23 years.

Aidan O’Brien won the race in – 2000, 2001, 2004, 2011 & 2017

TIMEFORM

The sky is the limit for TEN SOVEREIGNS, who looked a colt right out of the top drawer when coasting home in a Group 3 at the Curragh. He possesses plenty of scope for improvement and can provide Aidan O'Brien with a sixth winner in this contest. Stablemate Sergei Prokofiev should make his presence felt, but the hugely promising Jash and Gimcrack winner Emaraaty Ana may emerge as the main dangers.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: TEN SOVEREIGNS 4/6 (WINNER)  2: JASH 4/1 (2nd)  3: SERGEI PROKOFIEV 9/1

EXACTA paid £3.50 & CSF £3.88

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

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