NEWBURY Racecourse Template (Friday 19 April 2024)
April 18th, 2024
The Racing Horse offers our NEWBURY RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Friday 19 April 2024. There is a 7-race [...]
Pacafi (29 September 2018)
Posted by in Blog
Leave a comment
|
The Racing Horse is obsessed with strike-rates and believe in them. We like to have them onside when wagering. Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. With this in mind there has been a lot of talk about Aidan O'Brien's horses running poorly because of a virus and we no doubt part of that is true. However, some might be running badly because they have not been that good or previously hyped. We remind our members of perspective and the following.
.
2018: 123-520 for 24% (-60.71) 2017: 123-559 for 22% (-96.59) 2016: 121-632 for 19% (-169.60) 2015: 108-505 for 21% (-72.63) 2014: 105-535 for 20% (-149.19) 2013: 139-511 for 27% (-56.02) 2012: 95-503 for 19% (-124.49) 2011: 93-485 for 19% (-101.98) 2010: 109-549 for 20% (-123.02) 2009: 89-427 for 21% (-129.38)
The figures above shows his performance as a trainer from 2009 to 2018 in Ireland. Of the last 10 years this year has been his second most successful. In fact since 1993 he has only scored more than 123 winners once before so from a wins point of view his second most successive EVER! So much for the virus! We will leave these numbers to our members.
We cannot deny he has performed badly in the UK this year and his 17-178 for 10% (-91.77) proves it, that said he has won £4,450,099 in prize money. Should our members be worried about his numbers at Newmarket? Yes and no. He is just 1-14 for 7% on both the Rowley and July courses but our best guess is because the horses were not good enough to win more than the virus.
Yesterday Just Wonderful won a Group 2 at this course and was moved into around 12/1 for the 1000 Guineas next year. She looked a cut above her rivals and was ridden hands and heels to win. We have backed Ten Sovereigns today and have high hopes for this colt, we think he could be special, very special!
.
TEN SOVEREIGNS 3.00 Newmarket at 4/6Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) (Colts) (6f)Pedigree: 200,000gns Y; fourth foal; half-brother to Spanish 1m winner Learza; dam French Listed-placed 1m2f winner (RPR 98), half-sister to very useful 6f-7f winner Flash Fire out of Group-placed 7.5f winner, is granddaughter of useful 6f/7f winnerTHE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE Trainer Form: 3-7 for 43% (10) RPR: 127 (10) Optimum Ground: Good to firm (10) Optimum Distance: 6f (10) Jockey Booking: D O'Brien (10) The Racing Horse Composite: (10) Danger: Jash 4/1 Impressive debut winner of big-field maiden at the Curragh (6f), and produced an equally emphatic display when following up in a Group 3 over the same course and distance this month. Exciting prospect.ImposingTen Sovereigns strikes as an imposing figure and has ran like a high-class performer when dominating the Group 3 at The Curragh last time out on 1st September. The bay colt is undoubtedly Ballydoyle’s best juvenile to be seen so far in 2018 and has an air of Fasliyev or Johannesburg about him and he is moving towards their level rapidly. After his win trainer Aidan O'Brien told us: "You’d have to be very happy. He seemed to do everything right and he has a good, big, open stride. At least now going to the Group 1 Middle Park he’s had two runs and he should have enough experience. We’ll look forward to that now."Gait to be suited by fast groundWatching that race a few times we viewed his stride and one that will be so suited to today's ground. He settled into a close second, travelling to the front over a furlong out, but what he did inside the last furlong was so impressive as he quickened and put distance between himself and his rivals in double quick time. He might not have beaten much but was so visually impressive and he looks special.Smart with a fantastic brain - Donnacha O'BrienUnusually for a Ballydoyle newcomer, especially during a year that has been marred by a virus, Ten Sovereigns was able to put clear daylight between himself and some potentially useful peers at the first time of asking. Jockey Donnacha O'Brien was very taken and said: "He looks very smart and feels like the real deal. We’ll find out when he steps up to Group 1 company, but he couldn’t be doing any better. He pings the gates and went past Seamus’s filly [Fantasy] like she was stopping. He has a fantastic brain and does everything right. He lobs down to the start and stands like a lamb in the stalls."Loved the way he opened up - Aidan O'BrienTrainer Aidan O'Brien said this week: "The way he won first time out was very impressive and I loved the way he opened up in the last furlong and went clear in his Group 3. All has gone well with him since and we're happy with him."TimeformThe sky is the limit for TEN SOVEREIGNS who looked a colt right out of the top drawer when coasting home in a Group 3 at the Curragh. He possesses plenty of scope for improvement and can provide Aidan O'Brien with a sixth winner in this contest. Stablemate Sergei Prokofiev should make his presence felt, but the hugely promising Jash and Gimcrack winner Emaraaty Ana may emerge as the main dangers.ValueDo we have value today? Not sure, think so! If Ten Sovereigns is the next superstar then YES! Each-way money will come for Jash and 8/11 or 4/5 might become available but come post-time we hope our Pacafi shortens back into 4/6 or even shorter, especially if he has a good paddock. He looks a relaxed horse so that augurs well. We have not included a 'of his rivals' section for the reasons above, just Jash to beat! |
The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.
20 Ten Sovereigns 1.67 WIN 1.00 +0.67 +7.61 S/R 65% 19 Buffalo River 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +6.94 S/R 63% 18 Jaunty Thor 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +7.94 S/R 67% 17 Gemini 4.00 WIN 1.00 +3.00 +8.94 S/R 71% 16 Finch Hatton 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.94 S/R 69% 15 Jamil 1.67 WIN 1.00 +0.67 +6.94 S/R 73% 14 Wadilsafa (S) 2.20 WIN 1.20 +1.00 +6.27 S/R 71% 13 Kamikaze Lord 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +5.27 S/R 69% 12 Too Darn Hot 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 +4.55 S/R 67% 11 Sangarius 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +4.02 S/R 64% 10 Pilaster (S) 2.75 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.92 S/R 60% 9 Equilateral 1.62 WIN 1.00 +0.62 +3.92 S/R 67% 8 Carrie Des Champs 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 +3.30 S/R 63% 7 Harry Angel 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.77 S/R 57% 6 Enable 1.67 WIN 1.00 +0.67 +3.77 S/R 67% 5 Sextant 1.53 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +3.10 S/R 60% 4 Floria Tosca 2.20 WIN 1.00 +1.20 +4.10 S/R 75% 3 Autumn War 2.87 WIN 1.00 +1.87 +2.90 S/R 67% 2 Gleeful (S) 2.37 LOSE 1.25 +0.12 +1.03 S/R 50% 1 Veracious 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.91 +0.91 S/R 100%
September SELECTIONS: 20 WIN: 13 LOSE: 7 S/R: 65% PROFIT: +7.61pts
(14112161131111131221) FINISHED First or Second: 80.00%
18 Never Do Nothing 1.62 WIN 1.00 +0.62 +8.96 S/R 72% 17 Desert Frost 2.75 WIN 1.00 +1.31 +8.34 S/R 71% 16 Nick Lost 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +7.03 S/R 69% 15 Lah Ti Dar 2.00 WIN 1.00 +1.00 +8.03 S/R 73% 14 Collide 2.25 WIN 1.00 +1.25 +7.03 S/R 71% 13 Over The Guns 2.20 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.78 S/R 69% 12 Gustav Klimt 3.00 LOSE 1.30 -1.30 +6.78 S/R 75% 11 Alhakmha 1.57 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +8.08 S/R 82% 10 Concello 2.00 WIN 1.00 +1.00 +9.08 S/R 90% 9 Beat That 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 +8.08 S/R 89% 8 Restive Spirit 3.00 WIN 1.00 +1.50 +7.55 S/R 88% 7 Beatboxer (R4) 2.00 WIN 1.00 +0.90 +6.05 S/R 86% 6 Mutawaffer 1.83 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.15 S/R 83% 5 Magnetic Charm 2.75 WIN 1.00 +1.31 +6.15 S/R 100% 4 Willie John 2.20 WIN 1.00 +1.20 +4.84 S/R 100% 3 Battaash 2.25 WIN 1.00 +1.25 +3.64 S/R 100% 2 Royal Plaza 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +2.39 S/R 100% 1 Star Shield 2.67 WIN 1.00 +1.67 +1.67 S/R 100%
August SELECTIONS: 18 WIN: 13 LOSE: 5 S/R: 72% PROFIT: +8.96pts
(111112111125411211) First or second: 88.88%
19 Queen Medb 1.80 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +5.88 S/R 63% 18 L'Explora 1.44 WIN 1.00 +0.44 +6.88 S/R 67% 17 Kuwait Station 2.50 WIN 1.00 +1.50 +6.44 S/R 65% 16 Advanced Virgo 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +4.94 S/R 63% 15 Major Partnership 1.72 WIN 1.00 +0.72 +4.22 S/R 60% 14 Raymond Tusk 2.75 WIN 1.00 +1.75 +3.49 S/R 58% 13 Hazapour 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.74 S/R 54% 12 Wicklow Brave 1.80 WIN 1.00 +0.80 +2.74 S/R 58% 11 Altra Vita 1.80 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.94 S/R 55% 10 Inessa 1.80 WIN 1.00 +0.80 +2.94 S/R 60% 9 Wissahickon 3.75 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.14 S/R 55% 8 Fox Coach 2.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +3.14 S/R 63% 7 Herculean 1.50 WIN 1.00 +0.50 +4.14 S/R 71% 6 Thriving 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +3.64 S/R 67% 5 Ballydun Oscar 1.67 WIN 2.00 +1.34 +2.54 S/R 60% 4 Alsimsaam 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.20 S/R 50% 3 Altra Vita 1.80 WIN 2.00 +1.60 +2.20 S/R 67% 2 Construct (R4) 2.37 WIN 2.00 +2.60 +0.60 S/R 50% 1 Forever Together 1.67 LOSE 2.00 -2.00 -2.00 S/R 0%
July SELECTIONS: 19 WIN: 12 LOSE: 7 S/R: 63% PROFIT: +5.88pts
(211L111281313111112) First or second: 78.95%
DisclaimerOur information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose. |