2018 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers more powerful racing trends in tandem with perceptive betting advice for the 2018 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. These figures have absolute relevance and to ignore without factoring/processing invites negative influences to the wager.

HERE is a report on the going.

The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe was revolutionised when it gained sponsorship by the Qatar royal family in 2008. In the space of a year, the prize fund was doubled from €2 million to €4 million, making it the richest flat race taking place on a turf surface and the third richest overall after the Pegasus Cup and the Dubai World Cup. This investment becomes even more intriguing when factoring in that gambling is forbidden in Qatar due to it being an Islamic society. Before then, money was raised for the race by means of a state lottery, with prize money being allocated due to the race result.

The race traditionally takes place at Longchamp which is situated on the Route Des Tribunes in Paris’ Bois De Bologne alongside the banks of the river Seine. Run over 1m4f the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is one of Europe’s most valuable Group One contests that is open to horses of either sex that are aged 3yo or older.

In recent years the contest has been dominated by the younger horses with 11 of the last 16 winners being aged 3yo whilst the same amount came here off the back of a last time out victory. The domination of 3yos in this race can be partly attributed to the fact that they get a significant weight allowance compared with the older horses that run in the race. The 3yo fillies are asked to race of only 8st 9lbs, whilst 3yo colts are asked to carry 8st 13lbs. This compares with older fillies who are asked to race off 9st 2lbs, with the older colts on 9st 5lbs.

Fourteen of the last twenty two winners of the Arc had run in one of the Arc trials, with the Prix Niel clearly the most significant of the lot. It should be noted, however, that whilst eight of the last ten 3yo winners of the Arc had all contested the Prix Niel, not all had actually won that trial.

2018 PRIX de l'ARC de TRIOMPHE

15/16: Won a Group 1 race before (94%)
10/11: Won Group 1 over 12f (91%)
14/16: Won over 1m4f before (88%)
..9/11: Ran in September (82%)
13/16: Had 4 or more runs that season (81%)
18/24: Aged 3yo (75%)
12/16: Drawn in stall 8 or lower (75%)
12/16: Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting (75%)
11/16: Drawn in stall 6 or lower (69%)
11/16: Won at least 5 times before (69%)
11/16: Won last time out (69%)
....2/3: John Gosden winners (67%)
..7/11: Winners drawn in single figures (64%)
10/16: Ran at Longchamp before (63%)
..9/16: Won at Longchamp previously (56%)
..6/11: Drawn between 1 6 (55%)
..8/16: Won by a French-based yard (50%)
..8/16: Placed favourites (50%)
..7/16: Ran at Longchamp last time out (44%)
..7/16: Female winners (44%)
16/46: Winners aged 4yo (35%)
....3/9: Winning Epsom Derby winners (33%)
..4/16: Winning favourites (25%)
..4/16: Won by a UK-based yard (25%)
..3/22: Godolphin winners (14%)
..2/16: Trained by Andre Fabre (won race 7 times in all) (13%)
..2/16: Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2016, 2007) (13%)
..1/16: Winner aged 5yo (Marienbard in 2002) (6%)
..2/41: Winners aged 5 or older (5%)

Jockey Olivier Peslier has won the race 4 times

Frankie Dettori has won the race 5 times

The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 15/2

PREVIOUS WINNERS

2017: Enable (10/11 fav)
2016: Found (6/1)
2015: Golden Horn (9/2)
2014: Treve (11/1)
2013: Treve (9/2)
2012: Solemia (33/1)
2011: Danedream (20/1)
2010: Workforce (6/1)
2009: Sea The Stars (4/6 fav)
2008: Zarkava (13/8 fav)
2007: Dylan Thomas (11/2)
2006: Rail Link (4/7 fav)
2005: Hurricane Run (11/4)
2004: Bago (10/1)
2003: Dalakhani (9/4)
2002: Marienbard (158/10)

Latest News: Superstar filly Enable will break from stall six as she bids to defend her crown in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on Sunday and this seals the deal and is our selection. John Gosden's filly was a brilliant winner of the race last season, but she missed much of the current campaign through injury. She is set to face 18 rivals, with stablemate Cracksman the only horse to withdraw before Thursday's final declaration stage.

TIMEFORM

 SEA OF CLASS can continue the tremendous record of 3yo fillies in this with victory. She was most impressive when winning at York and likely has even more to offer, with stall 15 not a disaster given Treve and Golden Horn both overcame similar wide draws when successful in recent years. Last year's winner Enable has obvious claims, while Waldgeist is a very strong contender for France.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: ENABLE 11/10 (WINNER)  2: SEA OF CLASS 7/1 (2nd)  3: KEW GARDENS 10/1

***

  Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

~

The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

 Disclaimer
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

                                                                            

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *