Racing Trends for Ascot (6 October 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers more powerful racing trends in tandem with perceptive betting advice for the four big races at Ascot on Saturday. We also offer our must-have RACECOURSE TEMPLATES and when used in partnership with the racing trends and advice gives our members a complete package of pertinence and information. Make no mistake, these figures have absolute and critical relevance - to ignore them without factoring/processing invites negative influences to your wager.

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

2yo:    33-95  for 35%   (-8.37)     5-8   for 63%   (+5.45)
3yo:    35-87  for 40%   (+2.35)    35-116 for 30%   (-2.55)
4yo+:   29-91  for 32%  (-15.01)    40-155 for 26%  (+12.71)
Total:  97-273 for 36%  (-21.03)    80-279 for 29%  (+15.61)

TOP TRAINERS at Ascot for 2018
John Gosden:    10 wins from 47 runners for 21%  (-8.09)
Michael Stoute:  6 wins from 30 runners for 20%  (+7.82)
Clive Cox:       6 wins from 30 runners for 20%  (+9.50)
Andrew Balding:  6 wins from 33 runners for 18%  (+1.00)
Charlie Appleby: 6 wins from 32 runners for 19% (-10.37)

TOP JOCKEYS at Ascot for 2018
James Doyle:     9 winners from 44 rides for 20%  (-1.59)
William Buick:   9 winners from 54 rides for 17% (-17.50)
Andrea Atzeni:   7 winners from 43 rides for 16% (+20.40)
Adam Kirby:      7 winners from 45 rides for 16%  (+2.12)
Ryan Moore:      7 winners from 56 rides for 13% (-29.13)
Frankie Dettori: 6 winners from 31 rides for 19%  (-7.12)

1.50 Ascot: Duke Of Edinburgh's Award Rous Stakes (Listed) 5f

14/14: Raced in the last 5 weeks (100%)
14/14: Won over 5f before (100%)
13/14: Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting (93%)
10/11: Winners came from stalls 10 or lower (91%)
11/14: Rated 101 or higher (79%)
11/14: Winning distance – ½ length or shorter (79%)
11/14: Aged 5yo younger (79%)
10/14: Won between 3-7 times before (71%)
..9/14: Unplaced last time out (64%)
..8/14: Yet to win at Listed or better class (57%)
..7/14: Raced at Newbury last time out (50%)
..6/14: Irish bred (43%)
..2/14: Won last time out (14%)
..1/14: Winning favourites (7%)


The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1
Just Glamorous (33/1) won the race in 2017


Pace: Prominent racers are usually favoured at this trip here but the pace is forecast to be very strong and that seems sure to move the advantage away from them.

TOOF: Trainers out of form in this race include Spring Loaded (Paul D'Arcy 4 wins for 2018), Judicial (Julie Camacho 0-15 since 1 September 2018) and Mythmaker (Bryan Smart 3-40 since 1 September 2018). The Bryan Smart camp have also done well in the race in recent years – winning it in 2009, 2010 and 2011 but our betting experience tells us backing trainers with a strike-rate of 7.5% is one of the quickest ways to the poor house! We do not believe his charge Mythmaker (12/1) can win.

TIMEFORM

The vote goes to SPRING LOADED, who has followed his decisive C&D victory during the summer with a couple of big efforts in top handicaps. The 6yo should get the strong end-to-end gallop that he craves with the likes of A Momentofmadness and Just Glamorous in the line up. Muthmir has done little wrong this year and is next on the list ahead of Mr Lupton and Mythmaker.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1; A MOMENTOFMADNESS 10/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power and BetVictor 15.47)  2: MR LUPTON 9/2 (2nd)  3: MUTHMIR 5/1 (William Hill)

A Momentofmadness is a dual winner during the spring and back on the scoresheet when making all in the 21-runner Portland at Doncaster (5.6f, good) 3 weeks ago. Dangerous if allowed his own way out in front so will need to be unopposed early but the 10/1 represents value. A stake-saver on Mr Lupton makes sense though we accept his two runs at the course show finishes of 8th and 9th so a real negative!

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This race is named after Cumberland Lodge, a location used successfully in the 18th century as a stud farm and was the birthplace of the legendary Eclipse. Established in 1951 as a race over 2 miles, the distance was shortened to 1 mile 4 furlongs a year later in 1952. Both Lester Piggott and Pat Edderey rode 7 winners and Marcus Tregoning has trained 6 winners.

2.25 Ascot: Stell Artois Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) 1m4f

16/16: Finished fourth or better last time out (100%)
..9/10: Winners came from draws 8 or lower (90%)
14/16: Won over 1m4f before (88%)
14/16: Aged 3 or 4yo (88%)
14/16: Placed favourites (88%)
13/16: Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting (81%)
13/16: Ran within the last 6 weeks (81%)
12/16: Won at Listed or better class before (75%)
11/16: Raced at the course before (6 won) (69%)
..9/13: Distance winners (69%)
10/16: Winning distance 1 ¾ lengths or more (63%)
10/16: Had 5 or more runs that season (63%)
10/16: Won last time out (63%)
10/16: Won 4 or more times before (63%)
..8/16: Favourites to win (50%)
....2/4: Trainer by Richard Hannon (50%)
..6/13: Won at same level or better (46%)
..6/13: Winning favourites have won (inc 2 joint favourites) (46%)
....2/5: Trained Saeed Bin Suroor (40%)
..6/16: Raced at Doncaster last time out (38%)
..4/13 Course winners (31%)
..5/16: Trained by Marcus Tregoning (31%)
..3/13: Top rated winners (23%)
..2/16: Ridden by Martin Dwyer (13%)
..1/16: Filly or mare winners (6%)


5/1 the hightest winning SP in the last 13 years and 5/6 the lowest
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/3
Danehill Kodiac (8/1) won the race in 2007
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

TIMEFORM

The 3yos COMMUNIQUE and First Eleven are expected to come to the fore in this intriguing contest. The latter was well on top at the finish when landing a big handicap here last time but Communique, who is clearly thriving judged on recent victories at Newbury and Newmarket, is marginally preferred. Laraaib will be a threat if responding well to the fitting of blinkers.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: FIRST ELEVEN 11/8 (general 15.55)  2: COMMUNIQUE  5/2 (2nd)  3: LARAAIB 11/2 (WINNER)

First Eleven disappointed in a Newmarket Group 3 in July, but is worth another crack at this level judged on decisive victory in valuable course and distance handicap back from a break last month. Looks hard to beat even though Communique is rated higher but Johnston murders some of his horses and asking this 3yo to run for the 13th time since 31st March without a break, too much for me! Worth emphasising First Eleven is the only proven course and distance winner in this field and certainly fresher than Communique.

***

Previously known as the Bentinck Stakes this race was originally run at Newmarket, but was transferred to Ascot in 2008 and renamed in memory of Sir Piers Bengough who was Her Majesty’s Representative at Ascot from 1984 to 1997.

3.00 Ascot: John Guest Bengough Stakes (Group 3) 6f

10/10: Won over 6f previously (100%)
10/10: Officially rated 100 or higher (100%)
..9/10: Winning distance – 3/4 length or less (90%)
..9/10: Won 4 or more times previously (90%)
..8/10: Ran within the last 30 days (80%)
....5/7: Horse from stall 7 has been placed (3 wins) (71%)
....5/7: Horses from stall 5 and 7 have won (71%)
..7/10: Aged 3 or 4yo (70%)
..6/10: Raced 6 or more times that season (60%)
..5/10: Won their previous race (50%)
....3/9: Winners won a race at the same level or better (33%)
..3/10: Returned a double-figure price (30%)
..3/10: Favourites to win (30%)
....2/9: Course winners (22%)
....2/9: Top rated winners (22%)
..2/10: Raced at the Curragh last time out (20%)


16/1 is the highest winning SP and 9/4 the lowest in the past 9 years.
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2
Blue Point (Evens) won the race in 2017
Hold-up horses aren’t favoured at this trip

TOOF: Trainer badly out of form is Marco Botti (3-49) and we would not back one of his at the moment with forged money. He trains Ravens Lady. Gerald Mosse is 2-2 on this filly but we doubt that will help him make it 3-3 and we are strongly opposing.

TIMEFORM

LAUGH A MINUTE appears to have improved since being gelded and while a further step forward will be needed here, Roger Varian's charge may be equal to the task. Indeed, he is closely matched with Limato on a line through Top Score and it's worth noting that 3-y-os have won 3 of the last 4 runnings of this race. A class act at his best, Limato is feared most ahead of Projection and Dream of Dreams.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: GIFTED MASTER 13/2 (NON-RUNNER)  2: DREAM OF DREAMS 6/1 (2nd)  3: LAUGH A MINUTE 13/2 (NON-RUNNER)

Gifted Master needs to bounce back but that could happen at the price. Fine effort when defying a big weight in Stewards' Cup at Goodwood in August, then below par behind Limato and Projection at Newmarket. He is a proven course and distance winner and the highest rated and that counts for plenty.

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3.35 Ascot: Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) 7f

15/16: Winning distance – 2 lengths or less (94%)
14/16: Won between 2 and 4 previous races (88%)
11/13: Previously won a Class 2 Handicap (85%)
13/16: Won over 7f previously (81%)
10/13: Distance winners (77%)
..7/10: Winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc) (70%)
11/16: Raced within the last 30 days (69%)
11/16: Aged 3 or 4yo (69%)
11/16: Raced at Ascot previously (69%)
10/16: Carried 9st 1lbs or less in weight (63%)
..9/16: Raced 7 or more times that season (56%)
..7/13: Won a Class 2 Handicap that season (54%)
..8/16: Returned a double-figure price (50%)
..5/10: Horses from stall 10 were placed in the top 4 (50%)
..7/16: Carried 8st 12lbs or less in weight (44%)
..4/10: Horses from stall 11 were placed in the top 3 (40%)
..5/16: Raced at Ayr last time out (31%)
..4/16: Favourites to win (25%)
..2/13: Course winners (15%)
..2/16: Trained by Roger Charlton (13%)
..2/16: Trained by Mick Channon (13%)
..2/16: Won their previous race (13%)
..1/13: Won by claiming jockey (8%)
..0/16: Filly or mare winners (0%)
..0/13: Top rated winners (0%)


50/1 the highest winning SP in the last 10 years and 9/2 the lowest.
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 12/1
Accidental Agent (16/1) won the race in 2017
The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

Pace: This race is certain to have a fast early pace and that should play right into the hands of horses like Cape Byron.

TOOF: Dean Ivory (0-39) who saddles the favourite Flaming Spear and David Barron (4-77) with Above The Rest look hopelessly out of form.

TIMEFORM

A deserved big handicap success beckons for CAPE BYRON, who was first home in his group when beaten ½-length by Ripp Orf over C&D last month. The 4yo meets that rival on 2lbs better terms now and the forecast slower ground will help. Ripp Orf should be on the premises once again, but bigger threats may be posed by Raising Sand, who is lurking on a dangerous mark, Escobar and Good Effort.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: FIRMAMENT 14/1 (general 16.48)  2: GOOD EFFORT 20/1 (NON-RUNNER)  3: CAPE BYRON 13/2 (general)

Firmament was runner-up in 2016 renewal of this race and has posted several solid efforts in defeats this year. He deserves a win and the price is attractive. Yes, his last win was over two years ago but he has been running really well this season.

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

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