Racing Trends for 2018 Cesarewitch Handicap

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers powerful racing trends in tandem with perceptive betting advice for Newmarket (Rowley Mile Course) on Saturday. To aid the process further we offer more valuable information in the shape of our unique RACING TEMPLATES, where we look at the performance of the different age-groups in both handicap and non-handicap races. Finally, we highlight the latest movers and shakers for the course in 2018. These figures have absolute relevance, to ignore without factoring them into thought processes will invite negative influences to your betting slip!

Figures updated prior to the start of today's racing. The RACECOURSE TEMPLATES provide strong clues and yesterday was a case in point. Roger Varian had two winners at 12/1 and 20/1, Aidan O'Brien had a 3/1 winner and John Gosden a 11/4 winner. Jockeys on the leader board who scored included Donnacha O'Brien, William Buick and Frankie Dettori. These figures will almost certainly come into play today, don't leave home without them...

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

2yo:    69-174 for 40%  (-4.98)     7-26  for 27%   (-5.29)
3yo:    47-133 for 35% (-11.01)    41-136 for 30%  (-14.51)
4yo+:   19-54  for 35%  (-2.73)    29-119 for 24%  (-10.51)
Total: 135-361 for 37% (-18.72)    77-281 for 27%  (-30.31)

TOP TRAINERS at Newmarket (Rowley) for 2018
Charlie Appleby: 12 winners from 47 runners for 26%  (-5.84)
John Gosden:     10 winners from 60 runners for 17%  (-4.96)
Roger Varian:     9 winners from 48 runners for 19% (+18.50)
Mark Johnston:    6 winners from 38 runners for 16%  (-2.87)
Aidan O'Brien:    6 winners from 34 runners for 18%  (-3.88)

TOP JOCKEYS at Newmarket (Rowley) for 2018
William Buick:  14 winners from 56 rides for 25%   (+2.65)
Ryan Moore:      6 winners from 41 rides for 15%  (-19.37)
Frankie Dettori: 6 winners from 41 rides for 15%   (-5.34)
Doncha O'Brien:  5 winners from 10 rides for 50%  (+15.61)
Jim Crowley:     5 winners from 41 rides for 12%  (-23.37))

Image result for newmarket course map rowley course

Newmarket’s main course is the Rowley Mile course. This is the only course in which the runners pass through two counties (Cambridgeshire and Suffolk) during races. The Rowley Mile course is massively wide and due to the amount of racing on it the rails are constantly moved and different parts of it used, so it is difficult to be conclusive about any overall biases which exist. You need to watch the earlier races on the same day. The course is a straight course with a slightly inclined finish so if horses go off to fast in the 5 or 6 furlong races then they don’t get home.

The title Cesarewitch is an anglicised version of Tsesarevitch, the title of the heir to the throne in Imperial Russia. The race was named in honour of him after he donated £300 to the Jockey Club. The event was established in 1839, and the inaugural running was won by Cruiskeen. It was founded in the same year as another major handicap at Newmarket, the Cambridgeshire. The two races came to be known as the Autumn Double.

3.40 Newmarket: 2018 Cesarewitch Handicap

15/16: Aged 4yo or older (94%)
13/16: Won over at least 1m6f on the flat before (81%)
13/16: Ran within last 2 months (81%)
13/16: Carried 9st 1lbs or less (81%)
11/14: Finished in first 5 places in previous race (79%)
12/16: Returned a double-figure price in the betting (75%)
11/16: Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season (69%)
11/16: Finished 4th or better last time out (69%)
10/16: Aged 5yo or older (63%)
10/16: Won over at least 2m on the flat before (63%)
..8/14: Won a Class 2 handicap already (57%)
..8/14: Raced from bottom (low) half of stalls draw (57%)
..9/16: Drawn in stall 12 or lower (56%)
..9/16: Winning distance – 1 length or less (56%)
..9/16: Won 4 or more times on the flat before (56%)
..8/16: Ran at either Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out (50%)
..8/16: Had run at the track before (50%)
..8/16: Placed favourites (50%)
..7/16: First three home ALL returned a double-figure price (44%)
..7/16: Won by a NH trainer (44%)
..6/14: Raced from top (high) half of stalls draw (43%)
..4/14: Won a Class 2 handicap that season (29%)
..4/14: Distance winners (29%)
..4/16: Winning mares (25%)
..3/16: Winners from stall 1 (19%)
..3/16: Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa (19%)
..3/16: Winning favourites (19%)
..2/14: Won by a claiming jockey (15%)
..2/14: Course winners (15%)
..2/16: Trained by Nicky Henderson (13%)
..2/16: Trained by Philip Hobbs (13%)
..2/16: Won last time out (13%)
..1/14: Top rated winner (7%)

66/1 has been the highest winning SP and 9/2 the lowest in the last 14 years. The average SP in the last 15 years is 23/1

Profiling this race tells you horses 4yo and older have won 15 out of 16 with Darley Sun (2009) being the only 3yo to win since 1999. Last year the 4yo Withhold won so 3 of the last 5 were of that age group. However, it’s still worth noting that 10 of the last 16 winners were actually aged 5yo or older and that will be our starting point!

Of course, fitness is key at any time but those who raced within the last 2 months have won 13 of the last 16. Since 2000, 14 of 18 winners returned a double-figure price. We’ve even had two 50/1 winners and two 66/1 returns in the last six renewals! Check out the winners since 2000 below:

LAST 16 WINNERS 

2017: Withhold (5/1 fav)
2016: Sweet Selection (7/1)
2015: Grumeti (50/1)
2014: Big Easy (10/1)
2013: Scatter Dice (66/1)
2012: Aaim To Prosper (66/1)
2011: Never Can Tell (25/1)
2010: Aaim To Prosper (16/1)
2009: Darley Sun (9/2 fav)
2008: Caracciola (50/1)
2007: Leg Spinner (14/1)
2006: Detroit City (9/2 fav)
2005: Sergeant Cecil (10/1)
2004: Contact Dancer (16/1)
2003: Landing Light (12/1)
2002: Miss Fara (12/1)

TIMEFORM

A fiercely competitive renewal with the narrow vote in favour of LOW SUN. An impressive winner on the Flat/over hurdles earlier this term, he wasn't seen to anything like best effect last time and this sort of test promises to suit. Speedo Boy still looks fairly treated and is respected for all his wide draw is a concern. Stratum, Just In Time and Southern France also make the shortlist.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1; LAW GIRL 22/1 (Betfair and Paddy Power 17.32)  2: URADEL 20/1 (2nd)  3: CLEONTE 25/1 (3rd)  4: GOLDEN SPEAR 25/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power and Ladbrokes)

It could be a great day for Willie Mullins!

Law Girl has been campaigned solely on Flat this year, winning twice up to 14.7f. Ran up to her best when head second behind Limini at Leopardstown (12.8f) last time and highly respected from low weight.

22/1 seems a great price as does the 20/1 about Uradel who was too strong for Limini over an extended 2m at Galway in July and not seen to best effect when fourth behind Astronomer from 14lbs higher mark at Bellewstown last time. Return to further a plus.

Mob handed with 7 runners, BUT which one?

Willie Mullins is mob-handed with seven runners as he bids for a first victory in the famous Newmarket marathon. His leading fancy, long-time ante-post favourite Stratum, is owned by professional punter Tony Bloom, who pulled off a memorable gamble in the race 12 months ago with Withhold – now a leading contender for the Lexus Melbourne Cup. Stratum appears to have the perfect profile for a Cesarewitch and spearheads the Mullins team, which also comprises Whiskey Sour, Limini, Low Sun, Uradel, Law Girl and Meri Devie. Four of those contestants are in the top ten in terms of the betting, which illustrates the formidable strength in depth to the Mullins challenge.

Mullins said: “All of them seem in good form and we're fielding a big team because of the huge prize-money. Stratum looked unlucky in the Ebor last time. He's in good form and has shown he stays well. He could still be well handicapped. There's little to choose between Limini and Law Girl on their running at Leopardstown last month. Limini has a 4lb penalty but is in great form and will like the ground and the trip. The ground is crucial for Law Girl – she needs it to stay on the fast side (she gets that today). Whiskey Sour ran well when sixth in the Ebor and has a nice draw. He's been working well. Uradel has won over 2m1f and should stay the trip, which will really suit Low Sun. Meri Devie has been disappointing this season but is capable of better and her homework is good enough for her to take her chance."

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  Today's Pacafi: click here

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