Racing Trends for Newmarket (13 October 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers powerful racing trends in tandem with perceptive betting advice for Newmarket (Rowley Mile Course) on Saturday. To aid the process further we offer more valuable information in the shape of our unique RACING TEMPLATES, where we look at the performance of the different age-groups in both handicap and non-handicap races. Finally, we highlight the latest movers and shakers for the course in 2018. These figures have absolute relevance, to ignore without factoring them into thought processes will invite negative influences to your betting slip!

Figures updated prior to the start of today's racing. The RACECOURSE TEMPLATES provide strong clues and yesterday was a case in point. Roger Varian had two winners at 12/1 and 20/1, Aidan O'Brien had a 3/1 winner and John Gosden a 11/4 winner. Jockeys on the leader board who scored included Donnacha O'Brien, William Buick and Frankie Dettori. These figures will almost certainly come into play today, don't leave home without them...

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

2yo:    69-174 for 40%  (-4.98)     7-26  for 27%   (-5.29)
3yo:    47-133 for 35% (-11.01)    41-136 for 30%  (-14.51)
4yo+:   19-54  for 35%  (-2.73)    29-119 for 24%  (-10.51)
Total: 135-361 for 37% (-18.72)    77-281 for 27%  (-30.31)

TOP TRAINERS at Newmarket (Rowley) for 2018
Charlie Appleby: 12 winners from 47 runners for 26%  (-5.84)
John Gosden:     10 winners from 60 runners for 17%  (-4.96)
Roger Varian:     9 winners from 48 runners for 19% (+18.50)
Mark Johnston:    6 winners from 38 runners for 16%  (-2.87)
Aidan O'Brien:    6 winners from 34 runners for 18%  (-3.88)

TOP JOCKEYS at Newmarket (Rowley) for 2018
William Buick:  14 winners from 56 rides for 25%   (+2.65)
Ryan Moore:      6 winners from 41 rides for 15%  (-19.37)
Frankie Dettori: 6 winners from 41 rides for 15%   (-5.34)
Doncha O'Brien:  5 winners from 10 rides for 50%  (+15.61)
Jim Crowley:     5 winners from 41 rides for 12%  (-23.37))

Image result for newmarket course map rowley course

 

 

Newmarket’s main course is the Rowley Mile course. This is the only course in which the runners pass through two counties (Cambridgeshire and Suffolk) during races. The Rowley Mile course is massively wide and due to the amount of racing on it the rails are constantly moved and different parts of it used, so it is difficult to be conclusive about any overall biases which exist. You need to watch the earlier races on the same day. The course is a straight course with a slightly inclined finish so if horses go off to fast in the 5 or 6 furlong races then they don’t get home.

1.50 Newmarket: Godolphin Flying Start Zetland Stakes (Listed) 1m2f

11/11: Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting (100%)
10/11: Foaled in February, March or April (91%)
10/11: Raced in the last 4 weeks (91%)
10/11: Placed favourites (91%)
10/11: Won no more than twice before 991%)
..9/11: Placed in the top 3 last time out (82%)
..9/11: Drawn in stalls 2-5 (inc) (82%)
..9/11: Won over at least 1m before (82%)
..6/11: Won last time out (55%)
..6/11: Came from stalls 2 or 3 (55%)
..6/11: Winning favourites (55%)
..3/11: Ran at Leicester last time out (27%)
..2/11: Ridden by Frankie Dettori (18%)
..2/11: Trained by the Hannon yard (18%)
..2/11: Won by a Godolphin-owned horse (18%)
..0/11: Winners from stall 1 (0%)

TIMEFORM:

SYDNEY OPERA HOUSE's second to a stable companion in the Royal Lodge is the best form on offer, and he's sure to find more over this longer trip. Stablemate Norway was much improved to win a maiden at Naas recently, and he too has a bigger performance in him now upped in trip. Waldstern needs to improve to trouble the O'Brien pair, but he's well-bred and will also be suited by the test of stamina.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: SYDNEY OPERA HOUSE 9/4 (Unkind trip)  2: NORWAY 7/2 (WINNER)  3: WALDSTERN 3/1 (Black Type)

SYDNEY OPERA HOUSE has the best chance on form and shouldn’t be troubled by any pace scenario. Looks a smart stayer in the making so longer trip will suit.

***

This race was established in 1987 and originally held at Ascot as a Listed Race. In 2003 it was promoted to Group 3 status and in 2011 it was transferred to Newmarket.

2.25 Newmarket: Masar Godolphin Autumn Stakes (Group 3) 1m

13/13: Ran in the last 4 weeks (100%)
13/13: Finished in first 5 in previous race (100%)
12/13: Won over at least 7f before (92%)
12/13: Raced at least twice before (92%)
11/13: Finished 1 or 2 last time out (85%)
11/13: Placed favourites (85%)
10/13:  Won between 1-2 times before (77%)
..9/13: Won last time out (69%)
..9/13: Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting (69%)
..7/11: Winners from stalls 3-5 (64%)
..8/13: Foaled in February or March (62%)
..8/13: Irish bred (62%)
..7/13: Winners from top (high) half of stalls draw (54%)
..6/13: Winners raced from bottom (low) half of stalls draw (46%)
..5/13: Distance winners (38%)
..5/13: Unrated winners (38%)
..4/13: Course winners (31%)
..4/13: Winning favourites (31%)
..4/13: Winning favourites (1 joint favourite) (31%)
..3/13: Godolphin winners (23%)
..2/13: Ridden by William Buick (15%)
..2/13: Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (15%)
..2/13: Top rated winners (15%)
..1/13: Irish-trained winners (8%)
..0/13: Winner of a Group race (0%)

33/1 was the highest winning SP and 4/7 the lowest.

From 2009 back the race was staged at Ascot but 2005 run at Salisbury.

TIMEFORM

PERSIAN KING looked a smart colt in the making when winning comfortably at Chantilly 4 weeks ago, and sets a tall standard for the others to aim at. Magna Grecia is highly promising himself and is the one most likely to bridge the gap, though Kadar is an unknown quantity as well.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: KADAR 4/1 (NON-RUNNER)  2: PERSIAN KING 7/4 (WINNER)  3: MAGNA GRECIA 4/1(2nd)

Kadar made a bright start to his career when outpointing a John Gosden-trained hotpot at Haydock (1m, good). This is a big step up in class, but he's very much an unknown quantity and could be anything.

EXACTA paid £5.30 & CSF £4.80

***

This race was established in 1875 as the Dewhurst Plate and is named after the Dewhurst stud at Wadhurst. 

3.00 Newmarket: Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) 7f


16/16: Raced at least 3 times that season (100%)
23/24: Winners finished in the first 5 in previous race (96%)
21/24: Winners finished in first 3 in previous race (88%)
21/24: Distance winners (88%)
14/16: Yet to race at Newmarket (Rowley) (88%)
14/16: Placed in their last race (88%)
10/12: Irish winners (83%)
12/16: Won over 7f previously (75%)
17/24: Unrated winners (71%)
11/16: Favourites placed (69%)
11/16: Won at least 3 times previously (69%)
11/16: Won their last race (69%)
11/16: Won a Group race previously (69%)
16/24: Winners from top (high) half of the draw (67%)
10/16: Raced lto at Goodwood (2), Longchamp (2) or Curragh (6) (63%)
10/16: Won by an Irish-based stable (63%)
..9/16: Foaled in either  February or March (56%)
13/24: Winning favourites (1 joint favourite) (54%)
12/24: Already won a Group 1 race (50%)
..7/16: Favourites that won (44%)
..6/16: Winning distance – ½ length or less (38%)
..6/16: Placed horses that came from stall 2 (38%)
..3/8: Winners came from stall 3 (38%)
..8/24: Winners from bottom (low) half of the draw (33%)
..5/16: Returned 20/1 or bigger (31%)
..5/16: Trained by Jim Bolger (31%)
..5/16: Trained by Aidan O’Brien (6 wins in total) (31%)
..5/16: Ridden by Kevin Manning (31%)
..5/16: Finished in top 2 in 2000 Guineas the following season (31%)
..4/24: Top rated winners (25%)
..2/16: Won the Epsom Derby the following season (13%)
..2/24: Course winners (8%)
..1/16: Winners that came from stall 1 (6%)

33/1 has been the highest winning SP and 3/10 the lowest in past 24 years

Aidan O’Brien has trained the last three winners

TIMEFORM

TOO DARN HOT produced a performance right out of the top drawer in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last month and he looks the one to beat on that evidence. Anthony Van Dyck may prove the chief threat following his second to the hugely exciting Quorto in the National Stakes at the Curragh, though Sangarius and Advertise are others to consider in a mouth-watering affair.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: TOO DARN HOT Evens (WINNER)  2: SANGARIUS 9/2 (Ladbrokes and Betfair)  3: ANTHONY VAN DYCK 4/1 (3rd)

Too Darn Hot is a colt of huge potential and maintained his unbeaten record with a truly awesome performance in 6-runner Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster (7f, good) last month. Evens must be value!

***

  Today's Pacafi: click here

Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a maths-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

 Disclaimer
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