Pacafi (3 November 2018)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

 ENABLE 8.46 CHURCHILL DOWNS at 8/13bpg

Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) (1m4f)

Pedigree: Fifth foal; half-sister to winners Contribution (1m4f/1m7f; RPR 106) and Tournament (1m-8.5f inc AW; 94); dam French 1m2f winner (inc Listed; 102), sister to 12.5f Group 2 winner Dance Routine (dam of Flintshire), out of 1m4f Group 3 winner.

THE RACING HORSE COMPOSITE

Trainer Form: 20-98 for 20%         (10)
RPR: 139                            (10)                    
Optimum Ground: Good, good to soft  (10) 
Optimum Distance: 1m4f              (10)
Jockey Booking: Frankie Dettori     (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:         (50)

Next best: Happily

Light workload in 2018 to help her break record

Frankie Dettori is confident Enable can create history and become the first horse to win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and Breeders’ Cup Turf in the same year. The 4yo, owned by Saudi Arabian Khalid bin Abdullah, has only had two outings this season. But Enable showed exactly what she is capable of last month when she stormed to victory at Longchamps to claim back-to-back Arcs. Dettori, who rode her to victory in the famous race, is certain that her light workload in 2018 will help her to enter the record books.

She has travelled well - Dettori

Jockey Frankie Dettori told us: "No horse has ever won the Arc and at the Breeders' Cup the same year, but records are there to be broken. Enable has raced only twice so should be fairly fresh and she has travelled well. When you travel halfway around the world, there is always that little bit of fear, but all seems well. She's straightforward to ride. She ran around Epsom, Chester, and she's so versatile ground-wise."

Pleased with her since the Arc - Gosden

Trainer John Gosden is also hopeful that the filly can overcome her light campaign and win at the famous Churchill Downs track tomorrow. He said: "She has settled in well, Frankie said she was very professional today and moved well on the ground, we’re not going to do more than get a feel of the place. We’re watching where the rain is going, a little north of us at the moment, so you never know we might not get drowned. She has had a clear run since the Arc, she obviously took longer to come out of the Arc (than usual) which is understandable. She went in there not 100 percent, so it took a little time to get over it but I’ve been pleased with her since. She traveled well over here, she’s settling in and eating and drinking well, which is very important, and I am liking the way she moves."

Timeform

Unlike most previous Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winners, ENABLE comes into this race pretty fresh given that was just her second start of the season (reportedly had an interrupted preparation), and given she holds a clear edge on her peak form, she will take some stopping from a good draw. Magical had her limitations exposed somewhat at Longchamp but she was good at Ascot and is second choice.

Value

Hard to be certain what value is. Has the Arc run left a mark, is 27 days rest enough or has she come on for the run? We wanted 4/6 or 8/11 so the fact we have taken 8/13 suggests we are on the wrong side given uncertainty. We know she is easily the best horse in the race, if we get beaten we will not groan about the price. Gosden to win this race and follow up with the Melbourne Cup?

 The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

2  Enable              1.62  WIN 1.00   +0.62  +1.99  S/R 100%
1  Seddon              2.62  WIN  1.25  +1.37  +1.37  S/R 100%

November SELECTIONS: 2  WIN: 2 LOSE:  0  S/R: 100%  PROFIT: +1.99pts

      (11)            FINISHED First or Second: 100%

22  Magna Grecia        3.00  WIN   1.25  +1.75  +0.49  S/R 50%
21  Fragrant Dawn       1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.26  S/R 48%
20  Dr Sanderson        1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  -0.26  S/R 50%
19  Turjomaan           2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  -1.06  S/R 47%
18  Gifts Of Gold       1.72  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.06  S/R 44%
17  Cracksman           1.83  WIN   1.00  +0.83  -1.06  S/R 47%
16  Stradivarius        2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  -1.89  S/R 44%
15  Collodi             2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  -2.89  S/R 40%
14  Gentle Look         3.00  LOSE  1.20  -1.20  -3.99  S/R 36%
13  Dorah               2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.79  S/R 38%
12  Desert Friend       2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  -1.79  S/R 42%
11  Too Darn Hot        2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  -2.79  S/R 36%
10  Mary Somerville     2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.79  S/R 30%
 9  Cenotaph (S)        2.25  LOSE  1.20  -1.20  -2.79  S/R 33%
 8  Forest View         2.20  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.59  S/R 38%
 7  Huge Future         2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.59  S/R 43%
 6  Royal Rendezvous    1.40  WIN   1.00  +0.40  +0.41  S/R 50%
 5  Maj Partnership (S) 2.67  WIN   1.30  +1.37  +0.01  S/R 40%
 4  Allmankind          1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  -1.36  S/R 25%
 3  Ambling (S)         2.37  LOSE  1.30  +0.20  -1.80  S/R  0%
 2  Caid Du Lin         1.57  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R  0% 
 1  Gentle Look         1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

October SELECTIONS: 22  WIN: 11  LOSE: 11  S/R: 50%  PROFIT: +0.49pts

(4221113320112311121131)       FINISHED First or Second: 72.73%

20  Ten Sovereigns      1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  +7.61   S/R  65%
19  Buffalo River       1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +6.94   S/R  63%
18  Jaunty Thor         1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +7.94   S/R  67%
17  Gemini              4.00  WIN   1.00  +3.00  +8.94   S/R  71%
16  Finch Hatton        1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.94   S/R  69%
15  Jamil               1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  +6.94   S/R  73%
14  Wadilsafa (S)       2.20  WIN   1.20  +1.00  +6.27   S/R  71% 
13  Kamikaze Lord       1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +5.27   S/R  69% 
12  Too Darn Hot        1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +4.55   S/R  67%
11  Sangarius           2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +4.02   S/R  64%
10  Pilaster (S)        2.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.92   S/R  60%
 9  Equilateral         1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +3.92   S/R  67%
 8  Carrie Des Champs   1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +3.30   S/R  63%
 7  Harry Angel         2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.77   S/R  57%
 6  Enable              1.67  WIN   1.00  +0.67  +3.77   S/R  67%
 5  Sextant             1.53  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.10   S/R  60%
 4  Floria Tosca        2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.10   S/R  75% 
 3  Autumn War          2.87  WIN   1.00  +1.87  +2.90   S/R  67%
 2  Gleeful (S)         2.37  LOSE  1.25  +0.12  +1.03   S/R  50%
 1  Veracious           1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.91   S/R 100%

September SELECTIONS: 20  WIN: 13  LOSE: 7  S/R: 65%  PROFIT: +7.61pts

(14112161131111131221)       FINISHED First or Second: 80.00%

18  Never Do Nothing    1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +8.96   S/R  72%
17  Desert Frost        2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.31  +8.34   S/R  71%
16  Nick Lost           1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +7.03   S/R  69%
15  Lah Ti Dar          2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +8.03   S/R  73%
14  Collide             2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +7.03   S/R  71%
13  Over The Guns       2.20  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.78   S/R  69%
12  Gustav Klimt        3.00  LOSE  1.30  -1.30  +6.78   S/R  75%
11  Alhakmha            1.57  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +8.08   S/R  82%
10  Concello            2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +9.08   S/R  90%
 9  Beat That           1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +8.08   S/R  89%
 8  Restive Spirit      3.00  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +7.55   S/R  88%
 7  Beatboxer (R4)      2.00  WIN   1.00  +0.90  +6.05   S/R  86%
 6  Mutawaffer          1.83  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.15   S/R  83%
 5  Magnetic Charm      2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.31  +6.15   S/R 100%
 4  Willie John         2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.84   S/R 100%
 3  Battaash            2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +3.64   S/R 100%
 2  Royal Plaza         1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +2.39   S/R 100%
 1  Star Shield         2.67  WIN   1.00  +1.67  +1.67   S/R 100%

August SELECTIONS: 18  WIN: 13  LOSE: 5  S/R: 72%  PROFIT: +8.96pts

(111112111125411211)       First or second: 88.88%

19  Queen Medb          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.88   S/R  63%
18  L'Explora           1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +6.88   S/R  67%
17  Kuwait Station      2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +6.44   S/R  65%
16  Advanced Virgo      1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +4.94   S/R  63%  
15  Major Partnership   1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +4.22   S/R  60%
14  Raymond Tusk        2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  +3.49   S/R  58%
13  Hazapour            1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.74   S/R  54%
12  Wicklow Brave       1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.74   S/R  58%
11  Altra Vita          1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.94   S/R  55% 
10  Inessa              1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.94   S/R  60%
 9  Wissahickon         3.75  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +2.14   S/R  55%
 8  Fox Coach           2.50  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +3.14   S/R  63%
 7  Herculean           1.50  WIN   1.00  +0.50  +4.14   S/R  71%
 6  Thriving            2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +3.64   S/R  67%  
 5  Ballydun Oscar      1.67  WIN   2.00  +1.34  +2.54   S/R  60%
 4  Alsimsaam           2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.20   S/R  50%
 3  Altra Vita          1.80  WIN   2.00  +1.60  +2.20   S/R  67% 
 2  Construct (R4)      2.37  WIN   2.00  +2.60  +0.60   S/R  50%
 1  Forever Together    1.67  LOSE  2.00  -2.00  -2.00   S/R   0%

July SELECTIONS: 19  WIN: 12  LOSE: 7  S/R: 63%  PROFIT: +5.88pts

(211L111281313111112)       First or second: 78.95%

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