Racing Trends for Cheltenham (16 November 2018)

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The Racing Horse offers powerful racing trends in tandem with perceptive betting advice for Cheltenham races on Friday. To aid the process we offer valuable information in the shape of our unique Racecourse Templates, where we look at the performance of the different disciplines in both handicap and non-handicap National Hunt races. Finally, we highlight the latest movers and shakers for the course in 2018. This trilateral approach offers absolute relevance and because of its importance/weight this feature is now part of the service we offer our members.

The Cheltenham Open is now regarded as the festival that begins the jumps season. In recent years, the Open’s importance has grown, and it is now a three-day meeting that attracts challengers from all around Europe. Please note we have posted the course statistics for 2017/18.

FAVOURITES
NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)

Hurdle:   50-107 for 47% (+10.73)   13-94  for 14% (-43.63)
Chase:    53-123 for 43%  (-4.90)   18-111 for 16% (-32.17)
NHF:       7-25  for 28%  (-1.00)     0-0  for  - 
Total:   110-255 for 43%  (+4.84)   31-27 for 32% (-41.09)

TOP TRAINERS at Cheltenham for 2017/18 season
Nicky Henderson: 14 wins from 71 for 20% (-14.46)
Gordon Elliott:   9 wins from 40 for 23% (+56.72)
Colin Tizzard     9 wins from 61 for 15%  (-1.79)
N Twiston-Davies: 7 wins from 63 for 21%  (+1.45)
W P Mullins:      7 wins from 63 for 11% (+11.40)

TOP JOCKEYS at Cheltenham for 2017/18 season
Barry Geraghty: 9 wins from 43 for 21%  (-8.09)
Davy Russell:   5 wins from 27 for 19% (+11.50)
Harry Skelton:  5 wins from 33 for 15% (-11.66)
Noel Fehily:    5 wins from 41 for 12%  (-7.00)
Paddy Brennan:  5 wins from 42 for 12%  (-2.00)

1.50 Cheltenham: BetVictor Handicap Chase (Class 2) 2m

15/16: Won by a horse aged 9yo or younger (94%)
15/16: Carried 11st 7lbs or less in weight (94%)
14/16: Raced at Cheltenham before (88%)
13/16: Raced at least 5 times over fences previously (81%)
12/16: Priced 9/1 or shorter (75%)
10/16: Winning distance – 2 lengths or more (63%)
..9/16: Unplaced in their previous race (56%)
..8/16: Having their first run of the season (50%)
..8/16: Favourites placed (50%)
..7/16: Winners from the top 3 in the betting (44%)
..6/16: French-bred horse (38%)
..3/16: Trained by Nicky Henderson (19%)
..3/16: Ridden by Barry Geraghty (19%)
..3/16: Favourites that won (19%)
..3/16: Trained by Paul Nicholls (19%)
..3/16: Raced at Ascot last time out (19%)
..3/16: Raced at Cheltenham last time out (19%)
..2/16: Won their most recent race (13%)
..2/16: Trained by Philip Hobbs (13%)
..2/16: Trained by Paul Henderson (last 2 runnings) (13%)
..0/16: Irish-trained winners (0%)


Doitforthevillage won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

TIMEFORM

BUN DORAN acquitted himself well in deeper contests than this last term and looks on a decent mark for his return to action. He can land the spoils. Last year's winner Doitforthevillage will be a big danger if ready to roll first time up, whilst A Hare Breath goes particularly well fresh and is also much respected.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: MOVIE LEGEND 15/2 (2nd)  2: BUN DORAN 3/1 (WINNER)  3: PEPPAY LE PUGH 12/1 (3rd)

Last season's chasing campaign ended poorly but landed a gamble over timber on return (had wind operation), and could be a factor if putting it all in on switch back to the larger obstacles and 15/2 looks a big price. Lucy Wadham told us: "He had a nice outing at Fakenham where he won a novice hurdle, it was not a very competitive race but it was a good pipe-opener."

Hope one or two played the combinations.

EXACTA: £15.40  CSF: £15.61  TRIFECTA: £79.30

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2.25 Cheltenham: Steel Plate And Sections Novices' Chase (Class 2) 2m4f110y

16/16: Won by a horse aged 5yo or older
15/16: Won between 0 and 1 times over fences previously (94%)
14/16: Priced 6/1 or shorter (88%)
14/16: Ran between 0 and 2 times over fences (88%)
13/16: Finished in the top three in their latest race (81%)
12/16: Raced at Cheltenham previously (75%)
12/16: Favourites placed (75%)
11/16: Placed in the first two in their previous race (69%)
10/16: Won by a horse aged 6yo (9 of last 11 runnings) (63%)
..9/16: Irish-bred horse (56%)
..8/16: Raced at either Aintree (2), Cheltenham (4) or Auteuil (2) lto (50%)
..8/16: Winning distance – 6 lengths or more (50%)
..8/16: First run over fences (50%)
..7/16: Raced already that season (44%)
..6/16: French-bred horse (38%)
..6/16: Won their latest race (38%)
..6/16: Favourites that won (38%)
..5/16: Trained by the Pipe stable (31%)
..5/16: Won over hurdles at Cheltenham previously (31%)
..2/16: Ridden by Noel Fehily (13%)


The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1
Dynaste, Denman, Weird Al, Imperial Commander, Time For Rupert and Grands Crus are all big names to win this race in recent years

TIMEFORM

Nicky Henderson holds a strong hand with MR WHIPPED and Jenkins, the former promising to be at least as good a chaser as he was a hurdler. White Moon looks another good chasing prospect in what is a fascinating event.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: WHITE MOON 9/2  2: MR WHIPPED 5/2 (3rd)

White Moon has won two hurdle races and a point-to-point from 2m 5f to 3m on good and soft ground.  This Irish point winner who looked highly promising when winning first 2 starts over hurdles last year, and clearly didn't give running in Grade 2 at Sandown on final start. Likely to make a better chaser.

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3.00 Cheltenham: Glenfarlas Cross Country Chase (Class 2) 3m7f

15/15: Raced at Cheltenham previously (100%)
14/15: Either Irish (8) or French (6) bred (93%)
13/15: Won by a horse aged 9yo or older (87%)
11/15: Winner came from the top 3 in the betting (
11/15: Returned 6/1 or shorter
11/15: Had a recent run that season
11/15: Won at least 5 times over fences previously
11/15: Unplaced in their last race
10/15: Raced over this Cross County course previously (6 won) (67%)
10/15: Carried 11st 5lbs or more in weight (67%)
10/15: Favourites placed (67%)
10/15: Winning distance – 2½ lengths or less (67%)
..9/15: Won by an Irish-trained horse (60%)
..6/15: Trained by Enda Bolger (40%)
..5/15: Favourites that won (33%)


Josies Orders won this in 2015
The average SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

TIMEFORM

JOSIES ORDERS, Tiger Roll and Bless The Wings all boast excellent records around here, the first named getting the vote this time with race fitness on his side after a pipe-opener over hurdles.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1: TIGER ROLL 6/4  2: JOSIES ORDERS 5/2 (WINNER)

Tiger Roll does carry a loft weight but deserves too. Added an impressive third Cheltenham Festival win to his CV in Cross Country before landing biggest prize of them all in the Grand National at Aintree. Fitness was the original worry but trainer Gordon Elliott has told us he is fine: "Tiger Roll is in great form for his return at a track where he has done so well over the years."

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3.35 Cheltenham: Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m5f

14/14: Priced 10/1 or shorter (100%)
14/14: Raced in the last 5 weeks (100%)
13/14: Finished 1st or 2nd last time out (93%)
11/14: Won a NH Flat race earlier in their career (79%)
11/14: Went onto run at Cheltenham Festival (2 winners) (79%)
11/14: Won by an Irish-bred horse (79%)
10/14: Aged 5yo (71%)
10/14: Raced at Uttoxeter (4), Chepstow (4) or Cheltenham (2) lto (71%)
..8/14: Won just once before (under rules) (57%)
..8/14: Won last time out (57%)
..8/14: Won over 2 ½ (or further) over hurdles before (57%)
..4/14: Raced at Cheltenham before (29%)
..3/14: Winning favourites (21%)
..2/14: Trained by Philip Hobbs (14%)
..2/14: Ridden by Richard Johnson (14%)
..2/14: Went onto win a race at Cheltenham Festival (14%)


The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

TIMEFORM

DARLAC was all the rage on his Fontwell hurdles debut last month and looked a good prospect in making a winning start. He looks sure to progress further and can take this step up in grade in his stride. Double Treasure and Coolanly rate the principal dangers.

THE RACING HORSE VERDICT

1; PYM 9/4 (2nd)  2: DARLAC 9/2  3: COOLANLY 4/1 (WINNER)

Pym was a winner at Chepstow on his hurdles debut, couldn't quicken when the winner came sweeping past, but stuck to his task nicely. Trainer Nicky Henderson said: "The winner just got a run on him at the second-last at Ascot and I'd say two miles is a touch too short now."

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Today's Pacafi: click here

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